ICE No. 2 Cotton
January 10, 2025
Open High Low Settle Change
Mar '25 68.51 68.70 66.90 67.01 -149
May '25 69.70 69.88 68.15 68.26 -142
July '25 70.76 70.92 69.28 69.37 -138
Oct '25 - - - 68.44 -116
Dec '25 69.93 70.00 68.70 68.86 -104
Mar '26 70.43 70.44 69.59 69.69 -89
May '26 71.05 71.05 70.34 70.34 -79
July '26 71.58 71.58 70.84 70.84 -76
Oct '26 - - - 69.18 -75
Dec '26 69.20 69.20 68.71 68.77 -70
ICE estimated futures volume: 54,100
3月限は小高く寄り付くと暫くは横ばいに推移し、需給報告が発表されると弱気基調となった。
最終的には前日比で149ポイント安の67.01/LB引けた。推定出来高は54,100枚。
【相場要因】
需給報告を受けて綿花相場は弱気の展開となった。
需要サイドには芳しい改善は見られず、米綿、中国綿の生産量を中心に供給サイドの上方修正が目立った。詳細後述。
週間輸出成約報告の内容は、年末年始を挟んだ割には好調となり、市場予想を上回る結果となったが、相場への影響は限定されたとみられる。
投機筋からの売り圧力も報告されており、一部では、投機筋のショートポジションの増加が指摘されている。
紡績筋からは67セント近辺で値決めが入る局面があり、最終的には67セントの上で引けた格好。
【週間輸出成約報告】week ended 1/2
<2024/2025 Crop>
正味成約数量
アップランド137,400俵（トルコ 62,000俵、パキスタン25,500俵、ベトナム 21,500俵）
ピマ 6,400俵 (インド 4,000俵、ベトナム 2,200俵)
<2025/2026 Crop>
正味成約数量
アップランド0俵
ピマ 0俵
正味船積み数量
アップランド191,700俵 (ベトナム 45,400俵、中国 43,800俵、パキスタン 42,800俵)
ピマ 8,300俵 （インド3,600俵、ペルー2,900俵、パキスタン・タイ600俵）
【需給報告】
2024/25年度の米綿生産量の予想は、先月から15万俵上方修正され、1,441万俵に引き上げられた。特に米国南西部の生産量が17万俵上方修正となった。（内訳はテキサスが20万俵上方修正。カンザス1万俵上方修正。オクラホマ4万俵の下方修正。）
世界生産量は206万俵上方修正され1億1,945万俵。
世界消費量は10万俵上方修正され1億1,589万俵。
世界期末在庫は189万俵上方修正され7,791万俵。
中国の生産量は180万俵上方修正され3,000万俵。
中国の輸入量は50万俵下方修正され800万俵。
中国の期末在庫は128万俵上方修正され3,752万俵。
(2024-2025) (2025-2026)
=====current marketing year===== ====next year====
Week's net Week's Season's Season's Week's net Season's
Change in Export Export Total Change in Total
Commits Shipments Shipments Commits Commits Commits
==upland==
ALGERIA 0 0 4.3 4.4 0 0
BANGLADESH 1.7 7.0 167.9 333.4 0 0
BELGIUM 0 0 0 0.2 0 0
CHINA 3.7 43.8 403.4 663.3 0 8.8
COLOMBIA 0 0 0.1 11.0 0 0
COSTA RICA 0 4.5 32.4 74.4 0 6.8
DJIBOUTI AFARS-ISSAS 0 0 2.3 4.0 0 0
ECUADOR 0 1.2 15.3 32.5 0 0
EGYPT 0 0 0 0.1 0 0
EL SALVADOR 0.0 3.4 67.9 198.8 0 71.7
GERMANY 0 0 0 0.9 0 0
GUATEMALA 0 4.6 82.4 237.0 0 43.4
HONDURAS 0.0 5.5 121.1 257.4 0 38.1
HONG KONG 0 0 0 5.7 0 0
INDIA -3.1 1.0 110.1 300.3 0 0
INDONESIA 11.6 1.7 52.7 205.9 0 0
ITALY 0 1.5 2.0 3.0 0 0
JAPAN -0.1 3.0 23.4 61.0 0 12.1
KOREA REPUBLIC 0.2 1.8 30.5 100.8 0 0
MALAYSIA 0 1.3 44.1 130.4 0 39.6
MEXICO -0.1 0.8 221.6 604.6 0 151.9
NICARAGUA 12.3 3.3 56.5 81.2 0 0
PAKISTAN 25.5 42.8 665.0 1716.8 0 22.0
PERU 0 1.7 75.0 131.2 0 0
PORTUGAL 0 1.3 6.8 15.3 0 0
TAIWAN 2.1 0.2 23.6 32.2 0 0
THAILAND 0.0 1.0 49.6 150.7 0 0
TURKEY 62.0 14.8 155.1 917.4 0 78.8
VENEZUELA 0 0 2.8 5.2 0 0
VIETNAM 21.5 45.4 443.8 1473.3 0 0
TOTAL KNOWN 137.4 191.7 2859.4 7752.1 0 473.2
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 137.4 191.7 2859.4 7752.1 0 473.2
==pima==
BAHRAIN 0 0 0.4 0.4 0 0
BANGLADESH 0 0 3.6 4.2 0 0
BRAZIL 0 0 0.9 0.9 0 0
CHINA 0 0.1 23.7 26.5 0 0
COLOMBIA 0 0 0.8 3.6 0 0
COSTA RICA 0 0 0 0.9 0 0
DJIBOUTI AFARS-ISSAS 0 0 0.9 0.9 0 0
EGYPT 0 0 1.6 6.8 0 0
GERMANY 0 0 0.4 0.4 0 0
GUATEMALA 0 0 1.1 1.1 0 0
HONG KONG 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
INDIA 4.0 3.6 75.2 107.7 0 0
INDONESIA 0 0.1 1.4 1.7 0 0
ITALY 0 0 2.2 6.1 0 0
JAPAN 0 0 1.3 2.3 0 0
KOREA REPUBLIC 0 0 0.8 1.2 0 0
MALAYSIA 0 0 0.3 0.4 0 0
MEXICO 0 0 0.1 0.3 0 0
NICARAGUA 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0
PAKISTAN 0.3 0.6 15.9 19.7 0 0
PERU -0.1 2.9 20.0 31.1 0 0
SLOVENIA 0 0 0.2 0.2 0 0
SWITZERLAND 0 0 0 0.2 0 0
TAIWAN 0 0 0.4 0.4 0 0
THAILAND 0 0.6 4.1 6.5 0 0
TURKEY 0 0.4 2.1 4.6 0 0
VIETNAM 2.2 0 12.8 18.2 0 0
TOTAL KNOWN 6.4 8.3 170.3 246.8 0 0
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 6.4 8.3 170.3 246.8 0 0
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
==============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
==============================================================================
2024/25 (Projected)
World
Dec 74.16 117.39 42.25 115.79 42.26 -0.27 76.02
Jan 74.16 119.45 42.45 115.89 42.48 -0.22 77.91
World Less China
Dec 37.05 89.19 33.75 78.29 42.18 -0.27 39.77
Jan 37.05 89.45 34.45 78.39 42.38 -0.22 40.39
United States
Dec 3.15 14.26 0.01 1.80 11.30 -0.09 4.40
Jan 3.15 14.41 0.01 1.80 11.00 -0.03 4.80
Total foreign
Dec 71.01 103.13 42.25 113.99 30.96 -0.18 71.62
Jan 71.01 105.03 42.45 114.09 31.48 -0.19 73.11
Major exporters 4/
Dec 24.40 59.82 3.07 35.17 26.92 -0.18 25.38
Jan 24.40 60.22 3.37 35.17 27.42 -0.19 25.60
Central Asia 5/ Dec 3.25 5.17 0.10 4.07 1.39 0.00 3.07
Jan 3.25 5.17 0.10 4.07 1.39 0.00 3.07
Afr Fr Z 6/ Dec 1.29 4.71 3/ 0.10 4.58 0.00 1.33
Jan 1.29 4.71 3/ 0.10 4.58 0.00 1.33
S Hemis 7/ Dec 10.22 24.36 0.15 4.36 19.16 -0.18 11.38
Jan 10.22 24.76 0.15 4.36 19.56 -0.19 11.40
Australia Dec 4.20 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.40 -0.18 3.97
Jan 4.20 5.40 3/ 0.01 5.50 -0.19 4.28
Brazil Dec 3.11 16.90 0.01 3.30 12.50 0.00 4.22
Jan 3.11 16.90 0.01 3.30 12.80 0.00 3.92
India Dec 9.30 25.00 2.30 26.00 1.30 0.00 9.30
Jan 9.30 25.00 2.60 26.00 1.40 0.00 9.50
Major Importers 8/
Dec 44.27 39.94 36.43 74.46 2.30 0.00 43.88
Jan 44.27 41.44 36.33 74.56 2.32 0.00 45.16
Mexico Dec 0.24 0.83 0.83 1.50 0.15 0.00 0.24
Jan 0.24 0.83 0.83 1.50 0.15 0.00 0.24
China Dec 37.12 28.20 8.50 37.50 0.08 0.00 36.24
Jan 37.12 30.00 8.00 37.50 0.10 0.00 37.52
European Union 9/ Dec 0.26 1.26 0.54 0.56 1.20 0.00 0.29
Jan 0.26 1.26 0.54 0.56 1.20 0.00 0.29
Turkey Dec 1.41 4.00 4.30 7.10 0.80 0.00 1.81
Jan 1.41 4.00 4.20 7.00 0.80 0.00 1.81
Pakistan Dec 1.85 5.50 4.50 9.90 0.05 0.00 1.90
Jan 1.85 5.20 4.80 9.90 0.05 0.00 1.90
Indonesia Dec 0.40 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.01 0.00 0.39
Jan 0.40 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.01 0.00 0.39
Thailand Dec 0.09 3/ 0.43 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.08
Jan 0.09 3/ 0.43 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.08
Bangladesh Dec 1.71 0.15 7.70 7.80 0.00 0.00 1.76
Jan 1.71 0.15 7.80 7.90 0.00 0.00 1.76
Vietnam Dec 1.03 3/ 7.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 1.04
Jan 1.03 3/ 7.10 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.04
==============================================================================
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===========================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===========================================================================
2023/24 (Estimated)
World 75.90 112.98 44.01 114.33 44.61 -0.21 74.16
World Less China 42.55 85.63 29.03 75.83 44.54 -0.21 37.05
United States 4.65 12.07 3/ 1.85 11.75 -0.03 3.15
Total Foreign 71.25 100.92 44.00 112.48 32.86 -0.18 71.01
Major exporters 4/ 27.28 57.96 1.58 34.30 28.29 -0.18 24.40
Central Asia 5/ 3.69 5.03 0.05 3.84 1.67 0.00 3.25
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 0.96 5.02 3/ 0.10 4.59 0.00 1.29
S Hemis 7/ 11.34 22.03 0.15 4.22 19.25 -0.18 10.22
Australia 4.78 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.74 -0.18 4.20
Brazil 4.01 14.57 0.01 3.16 12.31 0.00 3.11
India 10.82 25.40 0.89 25.50 2.31 0.00 9.30
Major importers 8/ 41.77 39.62 39.96 74.10 2.99 0.00 44.27
Mexico 0.38 0.87 0.70 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.24
China 33.36 27.35 14.98 38.50 0.06 0.00 37.12
European Union 9/ 0.39 1.04 0.48 0.51 1.14 0.00 0.26
Turkey 2.63 3.20 3.57 6.60 1.39 0.00 1.41
Pakistan 1.53 7.00 3.20 9.70 0.18 0.00 1.85
Indonesia 0.36 3/ 1.85 1.80 0.01 0.00 0.40
Thailand 0.14 3/ 0.40 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.09
Bangladesh 1.73 0.16 7.58 7.75 0.00 0.00 1.71
Vietnam 1.05 3/ 6.59 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.03
2022/23
World 70.88 116.30 37.74 112.64 36.65 -0.27 75.90
World Less China 36.72 85.55 31.51 74.94 36.55 -0.27 42.55
United States 4.60 14.47 3/ 2.05 12.45 -0.08 4.65
Total Foreign 66.28 101.83 37.74 110.59 24.20 -0.19 71.25
Major exporters 4/ 21.76 55.72 2.47 32.81 20.05 -0.20 27.28
Central Asia 5/ 2.73 5.50 0.10 3.53 1.12 0.00 3.69
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.01 4.02 3/ 0.10 3.98 0.00 0.96
S Hemis 7/ 9.19 19.32 0.14 4.12 13.39 -0.20 11.34
Australia 4.98 5.80 3/ 0.01 6.19 -0.20 4.78
Brazil 2.05 11.72 0.01 3.11 6.66 0.00 4.01
India 8.40 26.30 1.73 24.50 1.10 0.00 10.82
Major importers 8/ 42.77 42.93 32.86 73.77 3.01 0.02 41.77
Mexico 0.32 1.58 0.69 1.80 0.41 0.00 0.38
China 34.17 30.75 6.23 37.70 0.09 0.00 33.36
European Union 9/ 0.30 1.64 0.52 0.56 1.52 0.00 0.39
Turkey 1.92 4.90 4.19 7.50 0.86 0.02 2.63
Pakistan 1.93 3.90 4.50 8.70 0.10 0.00 1.53
Indonesia 0.46 3/ 1.66 1.75 0.02 0.00 0.36
Thailand 0.15 3/ 0.66 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bangladesh 2.28 0.15 7.00 7.70 0.00 0.00 1.73
Vietnam 1.02 3/ 6.47 6.45 0.00 0.00 1.05
===========================================================================
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2023/24 2024/25
prev Jan 10 prev Jan 10
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.23 10.23 11.17 11.18
Harvested 6.44 6.44 8.63 8.27
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 899 899 792 836
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.65 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 12.07 12.07 14.26 14.41
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 16.72 16.72 17.41 17.57
Domestic use 1.85 1.85 1.80 1.80
Exports, total 11.75 11.75 11.30 11.00
Use, total 13.60 13.60 13.10 12.80
Unaccounted 2/ -0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.03
Ending stocks 3.15 3.15 4.40 4.80
Avg. farm price 3/ 76.10 76.10 66.00 65.00
=========================================================================
Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2023-24
=========================================================================
Type Yield Production 1/
And ============================================================-
State Annual Annual
2023 Dec 1 2024 2023 Dec 1 2024
=========================================================================
====== Pounds ====== ==== 1,000 Bales 2/ ====
Upland
AL 937.0 814.0 796.0 730.0 670.0 655.0
AZ 1,331.0 1,314.0 1,263.0 208.0 260.0 250.0
AR 1,295.0 1,275.0 1,313.0 1,362.0 1,700.0 1,750.0
CA 2,025.0 1,489.0 1,405.0 54.0 67.0 60.0
FL 612.0 629.0 723.0 111.0 110.0 125.0
GA 949.0 881.0 850.0 2,175.0 2,000.0 1,930.0
KS 761.0 760.0 774.0 149.0 190.0 200.0
LA 872.0 1,056.0 1,070.0 209.0 330.0 330.0
MS 1,083.0 1,165.0 1,165.0 891.0 1,250.0 1,250.0
MO 1,361.0 1,389.0 1,389.0 936.0 1,100.0 1,100.0
NM 649.0 711.0 496.0 23.0 40.0 31.0
NC 933.0 900.0 906.0 719.0 750.0 755.0
OK 560.0 442.0 632.0 210.0 290.0 250.0
SC 937.0 818.0 873.0 404.0 375.0 400.0
TN 1,250.0 1,046.0 1,066.0 677.0 545.0 555.0
TX 618.0 513.0 579.0 2,705.0 3,900.0 4,100.0
VA 1,122.0 960.0 1,093.0 187.0 180.0 205.0
U.S. 895.0 782.0 829.0 11,750.0 13,757.0 13,946.0
Amer-Pima
AZ 900.0 926.0 1,029.0 30.0 27.0 30.0
CA 1,346.0 1,429.0 1,226.0 230.0 402.0 360.0
NM 800.0 617.0 686.0 28.0 18.0 21.0
TX 584.0 844.0 883.0 28.0 51.0 57.0
U.S. 1,101.0 1,245.0 1,119.0 316.0 498.0 468.0
All
AL 937.0 814.0 796.0 730.0 670.0 655.0
AZ 1,255.0 1,264.0 1,233.0 238.0 287.0 280.0
AR 1,295.0 1,275.0 1,313.0 1,362.0 1,700.0 1,750.0
CA 1,438.0 1,438.0 1,248.0 284.0 469.0 420.0
FL 612.0 629.0 723.0 111.0 110.0 125.0
GA 949.0 881.0 850.0 2,175.0 2,000.0 1,930.0
KS 761.0 760.0 774.0 149.0 190.0 200.0
LA 872.0 1,056.0 1,070.0 209.0 330.0 330.0
MS 1,083.0 1,165.0 1,165.0 891.0 1,250.0 1,250.0
MO 1,361.0 1,389.0 1,389.0 936.0 1,100.0 1,100.0
NM 724.0 679.0 558.0 51.0 58.0 52.0
NC 933.0 900.0 906.0 719.0 750.0 755.0
OK 560.0 442.0 632.0 210.0 290.0 250.0
SC 937.0 818.0 873.0 404.0 375.0 400.0
TN 1,250.0 1,046.0 1,066.0 677.0 545.0 555.0
TX 618.0 515.0 582.0 2,733.0 3,951.0 4,157.0
VA 1,122.0 960.0 1,093.0 187.0 180.0 205.0
U.S. 899.0 792.0 836.0 12,066.0 14,255.0 14,414.0
=========================================================================
Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested by Type, State,
and United States, 2022-24
=========================================================================
Type Area Planted Area Harvested
and ============================================================-
State Annual Annual
2022 2023 2024 2023 Dec 1 2024
=========================================================================
============== 1,000 Acres ==============
Upland
AL 435.0 380.0 400.0 374.0 395.0 395.0
AZ 87.0 76.0 96.0 75.0 95.0 95.0
AR 640.0 510.0 650.0 505.0 640.0 640.0
CA 19.0 13.0 21.0 12.8 21.6 20.5
FL 106.0 89.0 85.0 87.0 84.0 83.0
GA 1,290.0 1,110.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,090.0 1,090.0
KS 163.0 112.0 131.0 94.0 120.0 124.0
LA 195.0 120.0 155.0 115.0 150.0 148.0
MS 530.0 400.0 520.0 395.0 515.0 515.0
MO 360.0 335.0 400.0 330.0 380.0 380.0
NM 66.0 32.0 41.0 17.0 27.0 30.0
NC 470.0 380.0 410.0 370.0 400.0 400.0
OK 660.0 420.0 435.0 180.0 315.0 190.0
SC 270.0 210.0 225.0 207.0 220.0 220.0
TN 335.0 265.0 265.0 260.0 250.0 250.0
TX 7,850.0 5,550.0 5,950.0 2,100.0 3,650.0 3,400.0
VA 91.0 81.0 91.0 80.0 90.0 90.0
U.S. 13,567.0 10,083.0 10,975.0 6,301.8 8,442.6 8,070.5
Amer-Pima
AZ 15.0 16.0 14.0 16.0 14.0 14.0
CA 115.0 85.0 145.0 82.0 135.0 141.0
NM 19.0 17.0 15.0 16.8 14.0 14.7
TX 33.0 29.0 33.0 23.0 29.0 31.0
U.S. 182.0 147.0 207.0 137.8 192.0 200.7
All
AL 435.0 380.0 400.0 374.0 395.0 395.0
AZ 102.0 92.0 110.0 91.0 109.0 109.0
AR 640.0 510.0 650.0 505.0 640.0 640.0
CA 134.0 98.0 166.0 94.8 156.6 161.5
FL 106.0 89.0 85.0 87.0 84.0 83.0
GA 1,290.0 1,110.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,090.0 1,090.0
KS 163.0 112.0 131.0 94.0 120.0 124.0
LA 195.0 120.0 155.0 115.0 150.0 148.0
MS 530.0 400.0 520.0 395.0 515.0 515.0
MO 360.0 335.0 400.0 330.0 380.0 380.0
NM 85.0 49.0 56.0 33.8 41.0 44.7
NC 470.0 380.0 410.0 370.0 400.0 400.0
OK 660.0 420.0 435.0 180.0 315.0 190.0
SC 270.0 210.0 225.0 207.0 220.0 220.0
TN 335.0 265.0 265.0 260.0 250.0 250.0
TX 7,883.0 5,579.0 5,983.0 2,123.0 3,679.0 3,431.0
VA 91.0 81.0 91.0 80.0 90.0 90.0
U.S. 13,749.0 10,230.0 11,182.0 6,439.6 8,634.6 8,271.2
=========================================================================
END
