ICE No. 2 Cotton
August 12, 2026
Open High Low Settle Change
Oct '26 83.34 83.83 82.41 83.21 +12
Dec '26 84.43 85.25 83.45 84.38 -1
Mar '27 86.38 87.06 85.33 86.32 +8
May '27 87.50 88.13 86.52 87.52 +15
Jul '27 86.89 87.50 86.10 87.04 +30
Oct '27 - - - 82.09 +41
Dec '27 78.77 79.10 78.47 78.99 +48
Mar '28 - - - 79.53 +48
May '28 - - - 79.79 +48
Jul '28 - - - 79.76 +48
ICE estimated futures volume: 52,700
ICE綿花先物12月限は、米国農務省の需給報告公表を前に85セント台まで上昇したものの、公表後は失望売りにより下落。
その後は需給報告後の売りが一巡すると買い戻しが入り、急落分の大半を回復して前日比1ポイント安の84.38セントで引けた。推定出来高は52,700枚。
【相場要因】
西テキサスでは高温乾燥と降雨不足が続いており、今後の米綿生産見通しを巡る不透明感も相場の下支え要因となった。
米国農務省の8月需給報告では、米国期末在庫と世界期末在庫がともに引き下げられ、世界消費予想も引き上げられたことから、強気材料として考えられる一方で、公表直後は失望売りが優勢となった。市場では西テキサスの高温乾燥を背景に、事前から米綿生産量の下方修正が期待されていた。実際には米国生産予想は引き下げられたものの事前予想ほどではなく、世界生産量も予想では下方修正であったものの、結果は上方修正であった。
【米国農務省需給報告】
前回からの主な修正は以下の通り。
・ 米国生産量：13.61百万俵 （-９万表）
- 米国期末在庫：4.00百万俵（-10万俵）
・ 世界生産量：117.63百万俵 （+37万俵）
・ 世界消費量：122.92百万俵 （+97万俵）
・ 世界期末在庫：69.69百万俵（-153万俵）
中国市場ではZCEが堅調に推移し、国家備蓄綿放出公売も完売が続いたものの、相場への影響は限定的だった。結果として、需給面の支援材料と高値警戒感が拮抗し、相場は大きく上下に振れながらも前日比ほぼ横ばいで終了した。
なお、外部市場では7月米消費者物価指数（CPI）が市場予想通りとなり、米主要3指数は堅調に推移した。穀物市場ではコーンや小麦が大幅高となった一方、原油は小幅高、ドル指数は上昇した。ただ、綿花相場は外部市場への反応よりも需給報告の評価が中心となった。
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Aug 12
Wed Aug 12 12:02:56 2026 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2026/27 (Projected)
World
Jul 75.72 117.26 43.34 121.95 43.34 -0.20 71.22
Aug 74.80 117.63 43.80 122.92 43.82 -0.19 69.69
World Less China
Jul 39.16 83.76 36.34 80.45 43.27 -0.20 35.74
Aug 38.54 84.13 36.80 80.92 43.74 -0.19 35.00
United States
Jul 4.20 13.70 0.01 1.60 12.30 -0.10 4.10
Aug 4.20 13.61 0.01 1.60 12.30 -0.09 4.00
Total foreign
Jul 71.52 103.56 43.34 120.35 31.04 -0.10 67.12
Aug 70.60 104.02 43.80 121.32 31.52 -0.10 65.69
Major exporters 4/
Jul 25.82 57.36 4.10 36.89 27.87 -0.10 22.61
Aug 25.16 57.72 4.50 37.29 28.30 -0.10 21.88
Central Asia 5/ Jul 2.34 5.62 0.25 4.93 1.40 0.00 1.89
Aug 2.37 5.70 0.25 4.93 1.50 0.00 1.90
Afr Fr Z 6/ Jul 1.23 4.17 3/ 0.11 4.11 0.00 1.18
Aug 1.17 4.20 3/ 0.11 4.14 0.00 1.13
S Hemis 7/ Jul 10.50 23.10 0.15 4.51 20.54 -0.10 8.80
Aug 10.27 23.35 0.15 4.51 20.84 -0.10 8.52
Australia Jul 3.76 3.00 3/ 0.00 4.50 -0.10 2.36
Aug 3.76 3.00 3/ 0.00 4.50 -0.10 2.36
Brazil Jul 3.80 18.00 0.01 3.40 15.00 0.00 3.41
Aug 3.60 18.25 0.01 3.40 15.30 0.00 3.16
India Jul 11.42 24.00 2.50 26.00 1.50 0.00 10.42
Aug 11.02 24.00 3.00 26.50 1.50 0.00 10.02
Major importers 8/
Jul 43.42 43.26 36.44 78.92 1.97 0.00 42.23
Aug 43.13 43.36 36.50 79.48 2.02 0.00 41.48
Mexico Jul 0.21 0.65 0.65 1.20 0.10 0.00 0.21
Aug 0.18 0.65 0.65 1.20 0.10 0.00 0.18
China Jul 36.56 33.50 7.00 41.50 0.08 0.00 35.49
Aug 36.26 33.50 7.00 42.00 0.08 0.00 34.69
European Union 9/ Jul 0.20 1.20 0.45 0.48 1.12 0.00 0.25
Aug 0.23 1.25 0.43 0.46 1.17 0.00 0.28
Turkey Jul 1.08 2.65 4.80 6.80 0.60 0.00 1.13
Aug 1.08 2.70 4.80 6.80 0.60 0.00 1.18
Pakistan Jul 2.05 5.10 5.00 10.20 0.05 0.00 1.90
Aug 2.05 5.10 5.00 10.20 0.05 0.00 1.90
Indonesia Jul 0.40 3/ 1.90 1.90 0.02 0.00 0.38
Aug 0.40 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.00 0.38
Thailand Jul 0.11 3/ 0.45 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.11
Aug 0.11 3/ 0.45 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.11
Bangladesh Jul 1.67 0.15 7.60 7.80 0.00 0.00 1.62
Aug 1.67 0.15 7.40 7.60 0.00 0.00 1.62
Vietnam Jul 1.02 3/ 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 1.02
Aug 1.02 3/ 8.20 8.20 0.00 0.00 1.03
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes
Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 12, 2026 12:02 ET (16:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Aug 12
Wed Aug 12 12:01:54 2026 EDT
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2025/2026 2026/2027
prev Aug 12 prev Aug 12
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 9.28 9.28 9.85 * 10.47 **
Harvested 7.83 7.83 7.54 * 8.19 **
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 852 852 872 * 798 **
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.00 4.00 4.20 4.20
Production 13.90 13.90 13.70 13.61
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 17.90 17.90 17.91 17.81
Domestic use 1.55 1.55 1.60 1.60
Exports, total 12.20 12.20 12.30 12.30
Use, total 13.75 13.75 13.90 13.90
Unaccounted 2/ -0.05 -0.05 -0.10 -0.09
Ending stocks 4.20 4.20 4.10 4.00
Avg. farm price 3/ 62.50 61.50 73.00 75.00
==========================================================================
Note: 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton. *Planted area as reported in June 30, 2026 Acreage report.
Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region. Yield based on
5-year average yields by region. **Planted area, harvested, yield, and
production as reported in the August 12, 2026 Crop Production report.
Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 12, 2026 12:01 ET (16:01 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Wed Aug 12 12:02:58 2026 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2025/26 (Estimated)
World 74.80 121.97 44.30 120.89 45.56 -0.19 74.80
World Less China 39.97 86.17 37.10 79.39 45.49 -0.19 38.54
United States 4.00 13.90 0.01 1.55 12.20 -0.05 4.20
Total Foreign 70.80 108.07 44.30 119.34 33.36 -0.14 70.60
Major exporters 4/ 26.12 59.07 6.15 36.64 29.70 -0.16 25.16
Central Asia 5/ 3.06 5.76 0.25 4.93 1.77 0.00 2.37
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.37 4.03 3/ 0.11 4.13 0.00 1.17
S Hemis 7/ 11.73 25.00 0.15 4.46 22.30 -0.16 10.27
Australia 4.80 4.50 3/ 0.00 5.70 -0.16 3.76
Brazil 3.70 18.75 3/ 3.35 15.50 0.00 3.60
India 9.52 23.80 4.80 26.00 1.10 0.00 11.02
Major importers 8/ 42.42 46.11 35.45 78.26 2.57 0.02 43.13
Mexico 0.31 0.57 0.62 1.20 0.10 0.02 0.18
China 34.84 35.80 7.20 41.50 0.08 0.00 36.26
European Union 9/ 0.30 1.23 0.43 0.47 1.27 0.00 0.23
Turkey 1.28 3.05 4.60 6.80 1.05 0.00 1.08
Pakistan 2.30 5.30 4.20 9.70 0.05 0.00 2.05
Indonesia 0.41 3/ 2.05 2.05 0.02 0.00 0.40
Thailand 0.11 3/ 0.43 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.11
Bangladesh 1.71 0.15 7.20 7.40 0.00 0.00 1.67
Vietnam 1.02 3/ 8.16 8.15 0.00 0.00 1.02
2024/25
World 73.55 119.53 43.03 119.11 42.43 -0.23 74.80
World Less China 36.83 87.53 37.85 80.11 42.37 -0.23 39.97
United States 3.15 14.41 3/ 1.70 11.90 -0.04 4.00
Total Foreign 70.40 105.12 43.03 117.41 30.53 -0.19 70.80
Major exporters 4/ 24.29 58.94 4.29 35.07 26.52 -0.19 26.12
Central Asia 5/ 3.15 5.22 0.10 3.94 1.47 0.00 3.06
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.29 4.44 3/ 0.10 4.27 0.00 1.37
S Hemis 7/ 10.19 24.70 0.15 4.36 19.13 -0.19 11.73
Australia 4.22 5.60 3/ 0.00 5.21 -0.19 4.80
Brazil 2.97 17.00 3/ 3.26 13.02 0.00 3.70
India 9.30 24.00 3.04 25.50 1.33 0.00 9.52
Major importers 8/ 43.92 43.41 35.91 77.80 3.01 0.00 42.42
Mexico 0.24 1.00 0.60 1.35 0.18 0.00 0.31
China 36.71 32.00 5.19 39.00 0.06 0.00 34.84
European Union 9/ 0.32 1.30 0.41 0.46 1.27 0.00 0.30
Turkey 1.40 3.95 4.46 7.10 1.43 0.00 1.28
Pakistan 1.85 5.00 6.10 10.60 0.05 0.00 2.30
Indonesia 0.40 3/ 1.98 1.95 0.02 0.00 0.41
Thailand 0.09 3/ 0.51 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.11
Bangladesh 1.71 0.15 8.05 8.20 0.00 0.00 1.71
Vietnam 1.03 3/ 7.98 8.00 0.00 0.00 1.02
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes
Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 12, 2026 12:02 ET (16:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Aug 12
Wed Aug 12 12:01:41 2026 EDT
Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2025 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2026
========================================================================
Type Area Harvested Yield Production 1/
and ==============================================================
State 2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026
========================================================================
==1,000 Acres== === Pounds === == 1,000 Bales 2/ ==
Upland
AL 285.0 370.0 948 934 563.0 720.0
AZ 86.0 79.0 1,429 1,154 256.0 190.0
AR 515.0 555.0 1,239 1,341 1,329.0 1,550.0
CA 17.9 19.7 2,199 1,706 82.0 70.0
FL 60.0 74.0 880 778 110.0 120.0
GA 825.0 1,030.0 1,033 932 1,775.0 2,000.0
KS 77.0 80.0 966 960 155.0 160.0
LA 80.0 110.0 1,350 916 225.0 210.0
MS 325.0 355.0 1,167 1,149 790.0 850.0
MO 340.0 310.0 1,084 1,363 768.0 880.0
NM 24.0 35.0 780 535 39.0 39.0
NC 275.0 345.0 1,115 988 639.0 710.0
OK 350.0 320.0 912 300 665.0 200.0
SC 167.0 197.0 992 804 345.0 330.0
TN 190.0 190.0 889 1,036 352.0 410.0
TX 4,000.0 3,900.0 628 566 5,230.0 4,600.0
VA 72.0 74.0 1,127 1,103 169.0 170.0
U.S. 7,688.9 8,043.7 842 788 13,492.0 13,209.0
Amer Pima
AZ 15.5 15.0 898 896 29.0 28.0
CA 91.0 94.0 1,683 1,583 319.0 310.0
NM 12.9 9.7 819 792 22.0 16.0
TX 19.0 25.0 884 864 35.0 45.0
U.S. 138.4 143.7 1,405 1,333 405.0 399.0
All Cotton
AL 285.0 370.0 948 934 563.0 720.0
AZ 101.5 94.0 1,348 1,113 285.0 218.0
AR 515.0 555.0 1,239 1,341 1,329.0 1,550.0
CA 108.9 113.7 1,767 1,604 401.0 380.0
FL 60.0 74.0 880 778 110.0 120.0
GA 825.0 1,030.0 1,033 932 1,775.0 2,000.0
KS 77.0 80.0 966 960 155.0 160.0
LA 80.0 110.0 1,350 916 225.0 210.0
MS 325.0 355.0 1,167 1,149 790.0 850.0
MO 340.0 310.0 1,084 1,363 768.0 880.0
NM 36.9 44.7 793 591 61.0 55.0
NC 275.0 345.0 1,115 988 639.0 710.0
OK 350.0 320.0 912 300 665.0 200.0
SC 167.0 197.0 992 804 345.0 330.0
TN 190.0 190.0 889 1,036 352.0 410.0
TX 4,019.0 3,925.0 629 568 5,265.0 4,645.0
VA 72.0 74.0 1,127 1,103 169.0 170.0
U.S. 7,827.3 8,187.4 852 798 13,897.0 13,608.0
========================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bales.
Cottonseed: Production, United States,
2025-26 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2026
========================================================================
Production
=================================================================
2025 2026 1/
========================================================================
1,000 Tons
U.S. 4,132.0 4,063.0
========================================================================
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
Write to Valena Henderson at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 12, 2026 12:01 ET (16:01 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
