ICE No. 2 Cotton
January 19, 2024
Open High Low Settle Change
Mar '24 82.50 84.72 82.31 83.95 +144
May '24 83.39 85.53 83.18 84.89 +150
July '24 83.85 85.80 83.81 85.32 +136
Oct '24 81.32 81.99 81.32 81.65 +79
Dec '24 79.65 80.50 79.65 80.22 +36
Mar '25 80.47 80.81 80.47 80.61 +37
May '25 80.56 80.72 80.56 80.64 +45
July '25 - - - 80.55 +46
Oct '25 - - - 78.90 +26
Dec '25 - - - 77.88 +19
ICE estimated futures volume: 83,400
3月限は寄り付きから横ばいに推移しアメリカ時間の朝に上伸した。一時84.72/LBの高値を付け、昨年10/31以来の水準となる。
最終的には、144ポイント高の83.95/LBで引けた。週間では264ポイント値を上げている。推定出来高は83,400枚
【相場要因】
綿花相場は歴代16番目に取引の多い一日となった。そのうち64％が値鞘を意識した乗換とみられる。そして米綿の供給がタイトになる中で需要が改善すればさらに先の限月でみられる逆鞘が広がるとみられている。
本日は週間輸出成約報告が発表され、市場の予想通りではあったが、堅調な数字が確認されたことから強気要因となった。正味の成約数は先週比で6割増加している。本日のCFTCレポートから、投機筋５週間かけて積み上げてきたショートポジションの一部を清算した様子。
強気ムードは他商品相場でも確認されており、特にダウ平均株価やS&P500といった米国主要株価は過去最高値を記録した。中国綿花相場(ZCE)も0.7％値を上げた。
【週間輸出成約報告】
新規正味成約 441.7千俵 (アップランド 437.6千俵 / ピマ 4.1千俵) : 中国 227.7千俵、ベトナム 38.9千俵、パキスタン37.7千俵、グアテマラ21.1千俵など
船積 262.3千俵 (アップランド 257.7千俵 / ピマ 4.6千俵) : 昨年6月末以来の水準
(2023-2024) (2024-2025)
=====current marketing year===== ====next year====
Week's net Week's Season's Season's Week's net Season's
Change in Export Export Total Change in Total
Commits Shipments Shipments Commits Commits Commits
==upland==
BANGLADESH 8.2 7.4 264.2 545.9 0 0
BELGIUM 0 0 0.4 0.7 0 0
BRAZIL 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0 0
CHINA 227.7 146.3 1899.1 3761.7 0 0
COLOMBIA 0 0.2 0.2 7.5 0 0
COSTA RICA 0 1.8 25.8 63.0 0 5.0
DJIBOUTI AFARS-ISSAS 0 0 3.1 3.1 0 0
ECUADOR 0.2 0.2 15.9 24.1 0 0
EGYPT 0 0 3.3 4.2 0 0
EL SALVADOR 0 5.8 64.3 186.8 0 40.7
GERMANY 0 0 3.5 3.5 0 0
GUATEMALA 3.5 4.4 65.8 201.3 17.6 40.9
HONDURAS 13.5 10.3 71.3 193.1 0 21.5
HONG KONG 1.1 0 0 1.1 0 0
INDIA 21.0 5.3 13.6 52.9 0 0
INDONESIA 12.8 2.5 84.8 225.9 0 0
ITALY 0 0 0.1 0.8 0 0
JAPAN 0.8 0.7 24.0 69.6 0 4.4
KOREA REPUBLIC 11.0 3.4 17.1 88.1 0 3.5
MACAU 2.1 4.2 14.4 26.3 0 0
MALAYSIA 11.4 1.6 23.0 97.2 0 88.0
MEXICO 0.6 11.8 323.7 727.0 0 111.9
NICARAGUA 0 1.3 12.5 23.2 0 0
PAKISTAN 37.3 15.2 287.3 1380.3 0 273.5
PERU 5.1 1.7 29.6 73.1 0 0
PHILIPPINES 0 0 0 1.2 0 0
PORTUGAL 0 0.9 9.4 29.8 0 0
SINGAPORE 0.6 0 0 6.8 0 0
SWITZERLAND 0 0 3.3 3.3 0 0
TAIWAN 6.4 3.6 35.7 53.1 0 0
THAILAND 4.1 2.0 34.2 88.6 0 16.7
TURKEY 13.7 8.8 122.9 497.4 0 77.0
VIETNAM 38.9 18.2 304.4 865.0 0 0
TOTAL KNOWN 420.0 257.7 3757.3 9306.0 17.6 683.3
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 420.0 257.7 3757.3 9306.0 17.6 683.3
==pima==
BAHRAIN 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0
BANGLADESH 0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0
BRAZIL 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0 0
CHINA 2.2 2.6 57.3 67.9 0 0
COLOMBIA 0 0 0.4 1.0 0 0
EGYPT 0 0.1 4.7 4.7 0 0
EL SALVADOR 0 0 0.2 0.2 0 0
ETHIOPIA 0 0 1.6 1.6 0 0
GERMANY 0.1 0 0 0.2 0 0
GUATEMALA 0.2 0 0.4 0.9 0 0
HONDURAS 0 0 0.9 0.9 0 0
INDIA 0 0.4 35.8 59.7 0 0
INDONESIA 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 0
ITALY 0 0.4 0.4 4.8 0.6 3.3
JAPAN 0 0 0.9 2.0 0 0
KOREA REPUBLIC 0 0 1.1 1.4 0 0
MALAYSIA 0 0 0.2 0.3 0 0
PAKISTAN 0.4 0 7.6 10.0 0 0
PERU 0 1.0 2.3 3.6 0 0
THAILAND 0.5 0 7.0 10.9 0 0
TURKEY 0 0 0.6 2.2 0 0
VIETNAM 0 0 14.9 21.4 0 0
TOTAL KNOWN 3.5 4.6 137.2 194.8 0.6 3.3
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 3.5 4.6 137.2 194.8 0.6 3.3
Data available from 2017/18 to 2023/24 market years. In running bales. The
marketing year for cotton began August 1. Source: USDA.
Current Market Year Next Market Year
Week Weekly Accumulated Net Outstanding Net Outstandg
Ending Export Exports Sales Sales Sales Sales
-2023/2024-
01/11/24 257,695 3,757,292 420,047 5,548,698 17,600 683,260
01/04/24 228,062 3,499,597 262,478 5,386,346 22,000 665,660
12/28/23 213,246 3,271,535 131,063 5,351,930 0 643,660
12/21/23 230,981 3,058,289 369,857 5,434,113 2,640 643,660
12/14/23 222,322 2,827,308 146,671 5,295,237 1,320 641,020
12/07/23 148,741 2,604,986 57,765 5,370,888 13,640 639,700
11/30/23 139,156 2,456,245 116,429 5,461,864 29,568 626,060
11/23/23 88,846 2,317,089 217,662 5,484,591 15,400 596,492
11/16/23 77,869 2,228,243 322,212 5,355,775 5,720 581,092
11/09/23 112,891 2,150,374 328,347 5,111,432 30,388 575,372
11/02/23 90,645 2,037,483 395,170 4,895,976 44,528 544,984
10/26/23 132,173 1,946,838 457,129 4,591,451 87,824 500,456
10/19/23 98,007 1,814,665 186,061 4,266,495 0 412,632
10/12/23 109,892 1,716,658 71,311 4,178,441 7,480 412,632
10/05/23 103,989 1,606,766 43,399 4,217,022 0 405,152
09/28/23 149,616 1,502,777 239,975 4,277,612 2,200 405,152
09/21/23 159,388 1,353,161 55,323 4,187,253 11,000 402,952
09/14/23 150,687 1,193,773 105,767 4,291,318 5,104 391,952
09/07/23 118,175 1,043,086 67,429 4,336,238 25,256 386,848
08/31/23 175,351 924,911 85,093 4,386,984 6,600 361,592
08/24/23 214,068 749,560 61,438 4,477,242 11,000 354,992
08/17/23 204,200 535,492 38,893 4,629,872 52,800 343,992
08/10/23 202,297 331,292 186,276 4,795,179 0 291,192
08/03/23 128,995 128,995 2,430,238 4,811,200 2,992 291,192
-2022/2023-
08/03/23 195,799 11,777,485 -18,973 2,152,523 2,301,243 4,811,200
07/27/23 194,637 11,581,686 -9,912 2,367,295 33,936 2,509,957
07/20/23 197,841 11,387,049 -18,665 2,571,844 80,553 2,476,021
07/13/23 233,063 11,189,208 67,050 2,788,350 86,134 2,395,468
07/06/23 208,329 10,956,145 23,066 2,954,363 51,004 2,309,334
06/29/23 260,106 10,747,816 109,209 3,139,626 130,399 2,258,330
06/22/23 225,173 10,487,710 125,556 3,290,523 158,680 2,127,931
06/15/23 236,768 10,262,537 42,721 3,390,140 187,615 1,969,251
06/08/23 244,792 10,025,769 98,915 3,584,187 65,736 1,781,636
06/01/23 247,583 48,377,795 207,236 2,792,774 264,590 3,117,322
05/25/23 282,951 9,464,024 267,767 3,566,618 76,561 1,685,084
05/18/23 268,748 9,181,073 131,245 3,581,802 84,304 1,608,523
05/11/23 332,691 8,912,325 132,443 3,719,305 28,077 1,524,219
05/04/23 331,020 8,579,634 246,817 3,919,553 12,760 1,496,142
04/27/23 413,954 8,248,614 231,274 4,003,756 26,928 1,483,382
04/20/23 398,414 7,834,660 194,936 4,186,436 19,096 1,456,454
04/13/23 289,787 7,436,246 62,080 4,389,914 38,007 1,437,358
04/06/23 334,569 7,146,459 143,203 4,617,621 11,078 1,399,351
03/30/23 250,100 6,811,890 160,457 4,808,987 15,942 1,388,273
03/23/23 340,964 6,561,790 281,281 4,898,630 12,320 1,372,331
03/16/23 272,519 6,220,826 310,236 4,958,313 21,296 1,360,011
03/09/23 273,922 5,948,307 225,535 4,920,596 12,760 1,338,715
03/02/23 287,452 5,674,385 114,525 4,968,983 -68,340 1,325,955
02/23/23 207,748 5,386,933 170,583 5,141,910 97,240 1,394,295
02/16/23 193,571 5,179,185 425,322 5,179,075 11,880 1,297,055
02/09/23 186,392 4,985,614 216,915 4,947,324 23,936 1,285,175
02/02/23 210,127 4,799,222 262,788 4,916,801 4,840 1,261,239
01/26/23 212,244 4,589,095 171,160 4,864,140 20,240 1,256,399
01/19/23 175,793 4,376,851 213,680 4,905,224 6,096 1,236,159
01/12/23 183,105 4,201,058 209,435 4,867,337 26,928 1,230,063
01/05/23 150,500 4,017,953 72,610 4,841,007 0 1,203,135
12/29/22 93,622 3,867,453 39,615 4,918,897 0 1,203,135
12/22/22 140,310 3,773,831 82,254 4,972,904 3,500 1,203,135
12/15/22 110,440 3,633,521 -87,805 5,030,960 969 1,199,635
12/08/22 141,851 3,523,081 18,647 5,229,205 28,192 1,198,666
12/01/22 141,145 3,381,230 32,640 5,352,409 26,400 1,170,474
11/24/22 139,458 3,240,085 16,494 5,460,914 11,000 1,144,074
11/17/22 143,698 3,100,627 -116,428 5,583,878 12,323 1,133,074
11/10/22 182,951 2,956,929 25,059 5,844,004 8,096 1,120,751
11/03/22 108,121 2,773,978 145,795 6,001,896 11,440 1,112,655
10/27/22 118,961 2,665,857 191,755 5,964,222 11,176 1,101,215
10/20/22 177,579 2,546,896 68,437 5,891,428 7,128 1,090,039
10/13/22 165,741 2,369,317 84,471 6,000,570 4,400 1,082,911
10/06/22 168,057 2,203,576 144,820 6,081,840 34,816 1,078,511
09/29/22 209,649 2,035,519 121,209 6,105,077 48,489 1,043,695
09/22/22 187,858 1,825,870 30,222 6,193,517 41,537 995,206
09/15/22 232,316 1,638,012 32,432 6,351,153 13,297 953,669
09/08/22 141,000 1,405,696 100,261 6,551,037 25,539 940,372
09/01/22 235,392 1,264,696 230,655 6,591,776 101,032 914,833
08/25/22 580,671 1,029,304 258,126 6,596,513 92,951 813,801
08/18/22 0 448,633 0 6,919,058 0 720,850
08/11/22 267,374 448,633 49,522 6,919,058 10,594 720,850
08/04/22 181,259 181,259 2,490,143 7,136,910 38,392 710,256
-2021/2022-
08/04/22 114,211 13,179,058 -21,466 2,387,771 2,308,884 7,136,910
07/28/22 279,734 13,064,847 -112,406 2,523,448 71,376 4,828,026
07/21/22 252,866 12,785,113 -3,959 2,915,588 55,686 4,756,650
07/14/22 330,795 12,532,247 54,071 3,172,413 113,176 4,700,964
07/07/22 312,703 12,201,452 10,167 3,449,137 139,277 4,587,788
06/30/22 377,831 11,888,749 37,350 3,751,673 381,855 4,448,511
06/23/22 364,415 11,510,918 48,123 4,092,154 46,345 4,066,656
06/16/22 371,867 11,146,503 16,207 4,408,446 277,303 4,020,311
06/09/22 335,819 10,774,636 26,547 4,764,106 380,223 3,743,008
06/02/22 335,890 10,438,817 259,188 5,073,378 102,947 3,362,785
05/26/22 484,199 10,102,927 354,196 5,150,080 109,063 3,259,838
05/19/22 318,472 9,618,728 37,009 5,280,083 95,413 3,150,775
05/12/22 343,189 9,300,256 110,914 5,561,546 25,431 3,055,362
05/05/22 364,519 8,957,067 27,505 5,793,821 90,648 3,029,931
04/28/22 426,631 8,592,548 232,356 6,130,835 93,174 2,939,283
04/21/22 385,975 8,165,917 121,142 6,325,110 49,539 2,846,109
04/14/22 367,148 7,779,942 50,470 6,589,943 136,065 2,796,570
04/07/22 333,848 7,412,794 59,282 6,906,621 132,033 2,660,505
03/31/22 455,470 7,078,946 62,883 7,181,187 64,388 2,528,472
03/24/22 331,060 6,623,476 233,951 7,573,774 111,672 2,464,084
03/17/22 442,672 6,292,416 307,539 7,670,883 67,413 2,352,412
03/10/22 325,467 5,849,744 371,353 7,806,016 49,019 2,284,999
03/03/22 321,258 5,524,277 354,174 7,760,130 68,170 2,235,980
02/24/22 354,123 5,203,019 348,589 7,727,214 105,199 2,167,810
02/17/22 376,107 4,848,896 247,234 7,732,748 218,156 2,062,611
02/10/22 270,022 4,472,789 158,493 7,861,621 34,692 1,844,455
02/03/22 299,656 4,202,767 185,218 7,973,150 96,113 1,809,763
01/27/22 302,135 3,903,111 332,098 8,087,588 315,120 1,713,650
01/20/22 197,912 3,600,976 391,338 8,057,625 106,776 1,398,530
01/13/22 198,682 3,403,064 273,045 7,864,199 139,241 1,291,754
01/06/22 167,613 3,204,382 400,985 7,789,836 38,280 1,152,513
12/30/21 104,869 3,036,769 143,152 7,556,464 44,003 1,114,233
12/23/21 162,183 2,931,900 192,204 7,518,181 24,376 1,070,230
12/16/21 130,762 2,769,717 243,561 7,488,160 49,449 1,045,854
12/09/21 131,460 2,638,955 286,437 7,375,361 56,320 996,405
12/02/21 114,784 2,507,495 382,586 7,220,384 18,139 940,085
11/25/21 71,388 2,392,711 374,896 6,952,582 0 921,946
11/18/21 97,097 2,321,323 196,934 6,649,074 46,200 921,946
11/11/21 77,867 2,224,226 136,702 6,549,237 7,216 875,746
11/04/21 87,875 2,146,359 127,968 6,490,402 11,616 868,530
10/28/21 141,853 2,058,484 139,110 6,450,309 20,600 856,914
10/21/21 63,424 1,916,631 360,753 6,453,052 20,000 836,314
10/14/21 117,442 1,853,207 391,796 6,155,723 63,904 816,314
10/07/21 95,164 1,735,765 146,653 5,881,369 10,648 752,410
09/30/21 125,100 1,640,601 246,697 5,829,880 54,960 741,762
END
