ICE No. 2 Cotton
January 12, 2024
Open High Low Settle Change
Mar '24 81.36 82.22 81.06 81.31 -5
May '24 82.33 83.03 82.00 82.29 -4
July '24 83.05 83.59 82.64 82.94 unch
Oct '24 80.74 81.01 80.54 81.01 +10
Dec '24 79.52 79.89 79.40 79.63 -8
Mar '25 80.07 80.15 79.93 79.94 -10
May '25 80.00 80.00 79.84 79.92 -5
July '25 - - - 79.77 -5
Oct '25 - - - 78.30 -5
Dec '25 - - - 76.98 -2
ICE estimated futures volume: 39,400
3月限は寄り付きから暫く横ばいの展開となり需給報告の発表を受けて82セントを突破したが、すぐに価格上昇の勢いを失うと値を下げた。最終的には5ポイント下げて81.31/LBで引けた。推定出来高は39,400枚。
【相場要因】
綿花相場は前日比（引け値ベース）で、大きく価格は変動しなかった。後述の需給報告はまちまちの結果となり、綿花相場はこれを反映した格好となった。週間では1.4％を上げていることから未だ強気の局面にあるとみられる。
需給報告が発表される直前の上げはFOMOとよばれる見逃しの恐怖からもたらされる買いの申し出と投機筋によるショートカバーによるものとみられる。米国1/15（月）はキング牧師記念日で綿花相場は休場となっている。
【需給報告】
米綿は、生産量が34.2万俵減少して1,243万俵となり、期末在庫も２０万俵減少するという見通しは強材料・強気要因になるので、投機筋のロングポジションを積み上げることを後押しする。世界の全体の生産量は26万俵増加し、世界の消費量は130万俵の下方修正は弱気の要因になる。インド、インドネシアの消費量は前月比で30万俵下方修正。おなじくパキスタン、ウズベキスタンは20万俵減となった。
米国の生産量減少についてはテキサス州における30万俵の生産量下方修正が主な要因になった。米国ピマの生産量の予想は2.4万俵減少して、30.7万俵になっている。これはより実態に近い修正になったと関係者は考えているようで、大方のアナリストが30万俵を下回ると考えている様子。
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
==============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
==============================================================================
2023/24 (Projected)
World
Dec 82.83 112.92 43.15 113.73 43.15 -0.37 82.40
Jan 83.22 113.18 43.05 112.43 43.05 -0.41 84.38
World Less China
Dec 45.43 85.92 32.15 77.23 43.06 -0.37 43.58
Jan 45.81 85.68 31.55 75.93 42.96 -0.41 44.57
United States
Dec 4.25 12.78 0.01 1.90 12.20 -0.17 3.10
Jan 4.25 12.43 0.01 1.90 12.10 -0.21 2.90
Total foreign
Dec 78.58 100.14 43.15 111.83 30.95 -0.20 79.30
Jan 78.97 100.75 43.05 110.53 30.95 -0.20 81.48
Major exporters 4/
Dec 29.76 57.54 2.07 33.32 26.64 -0.20 29.61
Jan 30.14 57.73 2.04 32.82 26.52 -0.20 30.78
Central Asia 5/ Dec 3.12 5.19 0.10 4.19 1.38 0.00 2.85
Jan 3.46 5.18 0.08 3.99 1.38 0.00 3.35
Afr Fr Z 6/ Dec 1.17 4.92 3/ 0.10 4.60 0.00 1.38
Jan 1.19 4.92 3/ 0.10 4.58 0.00 1.43
S Hemis 7/ Dec 13.29 21.96 0.17 4.36 18.54 -0.20 12.72
Jan 13.32 22.16 0.17 4.36 18.64 -0.20 12.84
Australia Dec 4.77 5.10 3/ 0.01 5.65 -0.20 4.41
Jan 4.77 5.10 3/ 0.01 5.75 -0.20 4.31
Brazil Dec 5.76 14.56 0.02 3.30 11.50 0.00 5.54
Jan 5.76 14.56 0.02 3.30 11.50 0.00 5.54
India Dec 11.82 25.00 1.30 24.00 1.80 0.00 12.32
Jan 11.82 25.00 1.30 23.70 1.60 0.00 12.82
Major Importers 8/
Dec 45.87 39.04 38.59 74.52 2.50 0.00 46.49
Jan 45.87 39.54 38.47 73.80 2.62 0.00 47.45
Mexico Dec 0.43 0.93 0.80 1.60 0.25 0.00 0.30
Jan 0.43 0.93 0.75 1.55 0.25 0.00 0.30
China Dec 37.40 27.00 11.00 36.50 0.09 0.00 38.81
Jan 37.40 27.50 11.50 36.50 0.09 0.00 39.81
European Union 9/ Dec 0.39 1.05 0.59 0.61 1.15 0.00 0.27
Jan 0.39 1.05 0.58 0.60 1.13 0.00 0.29
Turkey Dec 2.63 3.20 4.10 7.50 0.90 0.00 1.53
Jan 2.63 3.20 4.10 7.40 1.05 0.00 1.48
Pakistan Dec 1.53 6.70 4.00 10.00 0.08 0.00 2.15
Jan 1.53 6.70 3.80 9.80 0.08 0.00 2.15
Indonesia Dec 0.36 3/ 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.00 0.45
Jan 0.36 3/ 2.00 1.90 0.02 0.00 0.45
Thailand Dec 0.14 3/ 0.65 0.65 0.00 0.00 0.14
Jan 0.14 3/ 0.63 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bangladesh Dec 1.73 0.16 7.50 7.80 0.00 0.00 1.59
Jan 1.73 0.16 7.50 7.80 0.00 0.00 1.59
Vietnam Dec 1.05 3/ 6.70 6.70 0.00 0.00 1.05
Jan 1.05 3/ 6.70 6.70 0.00 0.00 1.05
==============================================================================
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===========================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===========================================================================
2022/23 (Estimated)
World 76.37 116.56 37.69 111.16 36.96 -0.72 83.22
World Less China 38.30 85.86 31.46 73.66 36.87 -0.72 45.81
United States 4.05 14.47 3/ 2.05 12.77 -0.55 4.25
Total Foreign 72.32 102.09 37.69 109.11 24.20 -0.18 78.97
Major exporters 4/ 23.27 56.13 2.40 31.94 19.92 -0.19 30.14
Central Asia 5/ 2.48 5.63 0.03 3.56 1.12 0.00 3.46
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.14 4.02 3/ 0.10 3.88 0.00 1.19
S Hemis 7/ 10.93 19.63 0.14 4.21 13.37 -0.19 13.32
Australia 4.96 5.80 3/ 0.01 6.17 -0.19 4.77
Brazil 3.88 11.72 0.01 3.20 6.66 0.00 5.76
India 8.40 26.30 1.73 23.50 1.10 0.00 11.82
Major importers 8/ 46.67 42.88 32.86 73.52 3.01 0.02 45.87
Mexico 0.32 1.58 0.69 1.75 0.41 0.00 0.43
China 38.06 30.70 6.23 37.50 0.09 0.00 37.40
European Union 9/ 0.30 1.64 0.52 0.55 1.52 0.00 0.39
Turkey 1.92 4.90 4.19 7.50 0.86 0.02 2.63
Pakistan 1.93 3.90 4.50 8.70 0.10 0.00 1.53
Indonesia 0.46 3/ 1.66 1.75 0.02 0.00 0.36
Thailand 0.15 3/ 0.66 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bangladesh 2.28 0.15 7.00 7.70 0.00 0.00 1.73
Vietnam 1.02 3/ 6.47 6.45 0.00 0.00 1.05
2021/22
World 77.63 114.46 42.96 116.10 43.19 -0.60 76.37
World Less China 40.34 87.66 35.12 82.35 43.07 -0.60 38.30
United States 3.15 17.52 0.01 2.55 14.48 -0.40 4.05
Total Foreign 74.48 96.94 42.96 113.55 28.71 -0.20 72.32
Major exporters 4/ 25.69 54.41 1.70 34.27 24.46 -0.20 23.27
Central Asia 5/ 3.03 5.09 0.06 4.23 1.47 0.00 2.48
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.68 5.98 3/ 0.10 6.43 -0.01 1.14
S Hemis 7/ 8.77 18.63 0.19 4.38 12.47 -0.19 10.93
Australia 2.51 5.85 3/ 0.01 3.58 -0.19 4.96
Brazil 4.07 10.82 0.02 3.30 7.73 0.00 3.88
India 11.84 24.30 1.00 25.00 3.74 0.00 8.40
Major importers 8/ 46.49 39.65 38.94 75.47 2.94 0.00 46.67
Mexico 0.44 1.22 0.96 1.90 0.40 0.00 0.32
China 37.29 26.80 7.84 33.75 0.12 0.00 38.06
European Union 9/ 0.37 1.67 0.64 0.62 1.77 0.00 0.30
Turkey 1.76 3.80 5.52 8.60 0.57 0.00 1.92
Pakistan 2.18 6.00 4.50 10.70 0.05 0.00 1.93
Indonesia 0.50 3/ 2.58 2.60 0.01 0.00 0.46
Thailand 0.13 3/ 0.75 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.15
Bangladesh 2.48 0.15 8.45 8.80 0.00 0.00 2.28
Vietnam 1.09 3/ 6.63 6.70 0.00 0.00 1.02
===========================================================================
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2022/23 2023/24
prev Jan 12 prev Jan 12
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 13.76 13.75 10.23 10.23
Harvested 7.31 7.29 8.02 7.06
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 950 953 765 845
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.05 4.05 4.25 4.25
Production 14.47 14.47 12.78 12.43
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 18.52 18.52 17.03 16.69
Domestic use 2.05 2.05 1.90 1.90
Exports, total 12.77 12.77 12.20 12.10
Use, total 14.82 14.82 14.10 14.00
Unaccounted 2/ -0.55 -0.55 -0.17 -0.21
Ending stocks 4.25 4.25 3.10 2.90
Avg. farm price 3/ 84.80 84.80 77.00 76.00
=========================================================================
Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2022-23
=========================================================================
Type Yield Production 1/
And ============================================================-
State Annual Annual
2022 Dec 1 2023 2022 Dec 1 2023
=========================================================================
====== Pounds ====== ====- 1,000 Bales ====
Upland
AL 930.0 909.0 913.0 833.0 710.0 715.0
AZ 1,563.0 1,472.0 1,568.0 280.0 230.0 245.0
AR 1,189.0 1,340.0 1,340.0 1,548.0 1,410.0 1,410.0
CA 1,946.0 1,688.0 1,838.0 75.0 45.0 49.0
FL 769.0 552.0 634.0 165.0 100.0 115.0
GA 1,002.0 1,025.0 982.0 2,650.0 2,350.0 2,250.0
KS 586.0 873.0 815.0 166.0 160.0 168.0
LA 904.0 877.0 877.0 358.0 210.0 210.0
MS 1,084.0 1,033.0 1,082.0 1,186.0 850.0 890.0
MO 1,240.0 1,324.0 1,338.0 878.0 910.0 920.0
NM 993.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 60.0 55.0 55.0
NC 1,049.0 954.0 947.0 1,005.0 735.0 730.0
OK 663.0 542.0 783.0 304.0 350.0 310.0
SC 911.0 866.0 912.0 505.0 370.0 395.0
TN 1,053.0 1,237.0 1,237.0 713.0 670.0 670.0
TX 734.0 419.0 498.0 3,060.0 3,100.0 2,800.0
VA 1,131.0 1,140.0 1,170.0 212.0 190.0 195.0
U.S. 945.0 758.0 841.0 13,998.0 12,445.0 12,127.0
Amer-Pima
AZ 933.0 930.0 960.0 28.0 31.0 32.0
CA 1,558.0 1,343.0 1,286.0 370.0 235.0 225.0
NM 719.0 894.0 759.0 28.0 30.0 25.0
TX 728.0 672.0 500.0 44.0 35.0 25.0
U.S. 1,281.0 1,126.0 1,054.0 470.0 331.0 307.0
All
AL 930.0 909.0 913.0 833.0 710.0 715.0
AZ 1,473.0 1,377.0 1,461.0 308.0 261.0 277.0
AR 1,189.0 1,340.0 1,340.0 1,548.0 1,410.0 1,410.0
CA 1,612.0 1,388.0 1,359.0 445.0 280.0 274.0
FL 769.0 552.0 634.0 165.0 100.0 115.0
GA 1,002.0 1,025.0 982.0 2,650.0 2,350.0 2,250.0
KS 586.0 873.0 815.0 166.0 160.0 168.0
LA 904.0 877.0 877.0 358.0 210.0 210.0
MS 1,084.0 1,033.0 1,082.0 1,186.0 850.0 890.0
MO 1,240.0 1,324.0 1,338.0 878.0 910.0 920.0
NM 886.0 1,071.0 1,016.0 88.0 85.0 80.0
NC 1,049.0 954.0 947.0 1,005.0 735.0 730.0
OK 663.0 542.0 783.0 304.0 350.0 310.0
SC 911.0 866.0 912.0 505.0 370.0 395.0
TN 1,053.0 1,237.0 1,237.0 713.0 670.0 670.0
TX 734.0 421.0 498.0 3,104.0 3,135.0 2,825.0
VA 1,131.0 1,140.0 1,170.0 212.0 190.0 195.0
U.S. 953.0 765.0 845.0 14,468.0 12,776.0 12,434.0
=========================================================================
Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested by Type, State,
and United States, 2021-23
=========================================================================
Type Area Planted Area Harvested
and ============================================================-
State Annual Annual
2021 2022 2023 2022 Dec 1 2023
=========================================================================
============== 1,000 Acres ==============
Upland
AL 405.0 435.0 380.0 430.0 375.0 376.0
AZ 120.0 87.0 76.0 86.0 75.0 75.0
AR 480.0 640.0 510.0 625.0 505.0 505.0
CA 26.0 19.0 13.0 18.5 12.8 12.8
FL 92.0 106.0 89.0 103.0 87.0 87.0
GA 1,170.0 1,290.0 1,110.0 1,270.0 1,100.0 1,100.0
KS 110.0 163.0 112.0 136.0 88.0 99.0
LA 110.0 195.0 120.0 190.0 115.0 115.0
MS 445.0 530.0 400.0 525.0 395.0 395.0
MO 315.0 360.0 335.0 340.0 330.0 330.0
NM 37.0 66.0 32.0 29.0 22.0 22.0
NC 375.0 470.0 380.0 460.0 370.0 370.0
OK 485.0 660.0 420.0 220.0 310.0 190.0
SC 210.0 270.0 210.0 266.0 205.0 208.0
TN 275.0 335.0 265.0 325.0 260.0 260.0
TX 6,350.0 7,850.0 5,550.0 2,000.0 3,550.0 2,700.0
VA 75.0 91.0 81.0 90.0 80.0 80.0
U.S. 11,080.0 13,567.0 10,083.0 7,113.5 7,879.8 6,924.8
Amer-Pima
AZ 9.0 15.0 16.0 14.4 16.0 16.0
CA 88.0 115.0 86.0 114.0 84.0 84.0
NM 12.5 19.0 16.0 18.7 16.1 15.8
TX 17.0 33.0 29.0 29.0 25.0 24.0
U.S. 126.5 182.0 147.0 176.1 141.1 139.8
All
AL 405.0 435.0 380.0 430.0 375.0 376.0
AZ 129.0 102.0 92.0 100.4 91.0 91.0
AR 480.0 640.0 510.0 625.0 505.0 505.0
CA 114.0 134.0 99.0 132.5 96.8 96.8
FL 92.0 106.0 89.0 103.0 87.0 87.0
GA 1,170.0 1,290.0 1,110.0 1,270.0 1,100.0 1,100.0
KS 110.0 163.0 112.0 136.0 88.0 99.0
LA 110.0 195.0 120.0 190.0 115.0 115.0
MS 445.0 530.0 400.0 525.0 395.0 395.0
MO 315.0 360.0 335.0 340.0 330.0 330.0
NM 49.5 85.0 48.0 47.7 38.1 37.8
NC 375.0 470.0 380.0 460.0 370.0 370.0
OK 485.0 660.0 420.0 220.0 310.0 190.0
SC 210.0 270.0 210.0 266.0 205.0 208.0
TN 275.0 335.0 265.0 325.0 260.0 260.0
TX 6,367.0 7,883.0 5,579.0 2,029.0 3,575.0 2,724.0
VA 75.0 91.0 81.0 90.0 80.0 80.0
U.S. 11,206.5 13,749.0 10,230.0 7,289.6 8,020.9 7,064.6
=========================================================================
END
