ICE COTTON FUTURES
July 12, 2022
Open High Low Close Change
Oct 22 101.21 101.21 98.44 98.44 -4.00
Dec 22 94.84 94.90 90.84 90.84 -4.00
Mar 23 90.69 90.69 86.68 86.68 -4.00
May 23 87.99 88.08 84.60 84.60 -4.00
Jul 23 85.84 85.84 82.50 82.50 -4.00
Oct 23 - - - 77.40 -4.00
Dec 23 79.50 79.59 76.10 76.15 -3.95
Mar 24 - - - 75.50 -3.95
May 24 - - - 74.95 -3.95
Jul 24 - - - 74.40 -3.95
ICE estimated futures volume:25,900
12月限は寄り付きから徐々に値を下げ、米国時間朝に値幅制限いっぱいまで値を下げた。そのまま引けまで貼り付き、結果、400ポイント安の90.84/LBで引けた。
推定出来高は25,900枚。
【相場動向要因】
綿花を含む他穀物相場は取引開始から投機筋による売りが入り、商品相場全体が大幅安で引けた。
綿花相場は上記の流れを受けて、7月度需給報告が発表される前にリミットダウンを付けた。
本日発表された7月度需給報告は、概ね予想の範囲内であった。
要点は以下の通り。
21/22crop
・中国消費量が100万俵下方修正
・世界消費量が190万俵下方修正
・ブラジル生産量が40万俵下方修正
・米国輸出俵数は不変(1475万俵)だが現状未達の可能性が高い
22/23crop
・米国生産量が100万俵下方修正、放棄率が25％から31.5％に上方修正、イールドが867 lbs./acreから870 lbs./acreに上方修正
・世界生産量が120万俵上方修正
・世界消費量が162万俵下方修正
★需給報告詳細
Tue Jul 12 12:02:50 2022 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2021/22 (Estimated)
World 88.07 116.22 43.32 119.79 43.93 -0.15 84.04
World Less China 48.82 89.22 35.12 82.79 43.85 -0.15 46.66
United States 3.15 17.52 0.01 2.55 14.75 -0.02 3.40
Total Foreign 84.92 98.69 43.31 117.24 29.18 -0.13 80.64
Major exporters 4/ 32.42 55.68 1.78 34.18 25.00 -0.17 30.87
Central Asia 5/ 2.33 4.93 0.02 3.72 1.62 0.00 1.94
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.93 5.98 3/ 0.11 5.73 0.00 2.07
S Hemis 7/ 15.88 19.86 0.16 4.23 13.20 -0.18 18.65
Australia 2.52 5.50 3/ 0.01 4.00 -0.19 4.20
Brazil 11.12 12.30 0.03 3.20 7.90 0.00 12.34
India 11.94 24.50 1.00 25.50 4.00 0.00 7.94
Major importers 8/ 49.85 39.77 39.05 78.78 2.84 0.05 47.00
Mexico 0.43 1.22 1.00 1.90 0.38 0.03 0.35
China 39.25 27.00 8.20 37.00 0.08 0.00 37.38
European Union 9/ 0.33 1.59 0.64 0.64 1.71 -0.03 0.24
Turkey 2.71 3.80 5.55 8.60 0.60 0.00 2.86
Pakistan 2.27 6.00 4.50 10.90 0.05 0.03 1.79
Indonesia 0.50 3/ 2.55 2.55 0.01 0.00 0.49
Thailand 0.08 3/ 0.73 0.70 0.00 0.01 0.10
Bangladesh 2.90 0.15 8.00 8.50 0.00 0.01 2.54
Vietnam 1.12 3/ 6.80 6.90 0.00 0.00 1.03
2020/21
World 97.65 111.48 49.08 121.69 48.50 -0.05 88.07
World Less China 60.75 81.98 36.22 81.69 48.49 -0.05 48.82
United States 7.25 14.61 3/ 2.40 16.35 -0.04 3.15
Total Foreign 90.40 96.87 49.08 119.29 32.14 -0.01 84.92
Major exporters 4/ 39.11 53.89 1.60 34.62 27.63 -0.08 32.42
Central Asia 5/ 2.68 5.45 0.01 3.82 1.99 0.00 2.33
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 2.52 4.84 3/ 0.11 5.31 0.00 1.93
S Hemis 7/ 17.62 15.65 0.14 4.04 13.59 -0.09 15.88
Australia 1.20 2.80 3/ 0.01 1.56 -0.10 2.52
Brazil 14.40 10.82 0.01 3.10 11.01 0.00 11.12
India 15.68 27.60 0.84 26.00 6.19 0.00 11.94
Major importers 8/ 48.87 39.77 45.06 80.67 3.10 0.07 49.85
Mexico 0.69 1.02 0.93 1.70 0.49 0.03 0.43
China 36.90 29.50 12.86 40.00 0.01 0.00 39.25
European Union 9/ 0.62 1.69 0.56 0.59 1.96 0.00 0.33
Turkey 2.77 2.90 5.33 7.70 0.59 0.00 2.71
Pakistan 3.19 4.50 5.33 10.70 0.03 0.03 2.27
Indonesia 0.64 3/ 2.31 2.45 0.01 0.00 0.50
Thailand 0.10 3/ 0.60 0.61 0.00 0.01 0.08
Bangladesh 2.52 0.15 8.75 8.50 0.00 0.01 2.90
Vietnam 1.11 3/ 7.31 7.30 0.00 0.00 1.12
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia,
Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina
Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali,
Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South
Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
END
