ICE COTTON FUTURES
February 11, 2020
Open High Low Close Change
Mar 20 68.00 68.55 67.89 68.23 +.04
May 20 68.86 69.12 68.45 68.74 unch
Jul 20 69.37 69.91 69.22 69.56 +.02
Oct 20 - - - 68.76 +.02
Dec 20 69.30 69.65 69.01 69.31 +.06
Mar 21 70.10 70.42 69.80 70.07 -.03
May 21 70.20 70.32 70.06 70.17 -.08
Jul 21 70.13 70.13 70.05 70.02 -.11
Oct 21 - - - 68.77 +.14
Dec 21 67.10 67.24 67.10 67.27 +.14
ICE estimated futures volume:63,100
NY定期3月限は、寄り付きから方向感なく小幅な値動きで推移し、最終的に前日比4ポイント高の68.23/LBで引けた。
期近5月限も小幅な値動きで推移し、最終的に前日変わらず68.74/LBで引けた。
出来高は、63,100枚。
【相場動向要因】
本日米国農務省より月間需給報告が発表された。詳細は後述。
中国の国内消費量が約100万俵下方修正されたことにより、世界の原綿消費量が約120万俵下方修正された。また、世界の期末在庫が約250万俵上方修正されている。
一方で、2019/2020CROPの米棉は生産量、消費量とも前回から据え置きとなっている。
この結果が弱材料として市場に影響を与えるかと思われたが、期近3月限は、寄り付き直後に本日の安値を付けた後、68セント近辺を支持線とし、大きく値を崩すことなく引けた。
期近5月限も方向感乏しく推移した。
また、本日は大手投機筋による期近3月限から5月限へのポジション限月乗り換えの4日目となった。
本日のCotton Outlookレポートなどで、豪州の綿作地で降雨が確認されたと報告されている。
2020cropの豪州綿の生産量への影響は限定的なものとの見方が多い模様。
米国現地2月17日はプレジデントデーのため休場となる。
米国農務省月間需給報告の詳細は以下の通り；
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Feb 11
Tue Feb 11 12:02:05 2020 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
==============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
==============================================================================
2019/20 (Projected)
World
Jan 79.53 120.48 43.83 120.22 43.85 0.19 79.59
Feb 79.99 121.33 43.55 119.01 43.54 0.19 82.12
World Less China
Jan 43.86 93.23 35.33 81.72 43.67 0.19 46.85
Feb 44.32 94.08 35.05 81.51 43.37 0.19 48.38
United States
Jan 4.85 20.10 0.01 3.00 16.50 0.06 5.40
Feb 4.85 20.10 0.01 3.00 16.50 0.06 5.40
Total foreign
Jan 74.68 100.38 43.83 117.22 27.35 0.13 74.19
Feb 75.14 101.23 43.54 116.01 27.04 0.13 76.72
Major exporters 4/
Jan 28.13 56.91 2.88 34.05 22.85 0.02 31.00
Feb 28.57 57.21 2.98 34.05 22.67 0.02 32.02
Central Asia 5/ Jan 2.31 5.86 3/ 4.34 1.69 0.00 2.14
Feb 2.31 5.86 3/ 4.34 1.69 0.00 2.14
Afr Fr Z 6/ Jan 1.42 5.87 3/ 0.14 5.68 0.00 1.47
Feb 1.44 5.87 3/ 0.14 5.60 0.00 1.56
S Hemis 7/ Jan 14.81 15.19 0.18 4.38 11.39 0.01 14.41
Feb 15.24 15.49 0.18 4.38 11.49 0.01 15.04
Australia Jan 1.57 0.68 3/ 0.04 1.35 0.00 0.86
Feb 1.57 0.68 3/ 0.04 1.30 0.00 0.91
Brazil Jan 11.78 12.50 0.03 3.40 8.80 0.00 12.10
Feb 12.26 12.70 0.03 3.40 8.90 0.00 12.68
India Jan 9.31 29.50 2.20 24.50 3.80 0.00 12.71
Feb 9.31 29.50 2.30 24.50 3.60 0.00 13.01
Major Importers 8/
Jan 44.60 40.42 38.37 78.97 2.94 0.11 41.36
Feb 44.60 40.93 37.73 77.76 2.89 0.11 42.50
Mexico Jan 0.77 1.57 0.80 1.95 0.45 0.03 0.71
Feb 0.77 1.57 0.80 1.95 0.43 0.03 0.74
China Jan 35.67 27.25 8.50 38.50 0.18 0.00 32.75
Feb 35.67 27.25 8.50 37.50 0.18 0.00 33.75
EU-27 9/ Jan 0.23 1.96 0.65 0.69 1.86 0.03 0.26
Feb 0.23 1.96 0.65 0.69 1.81 0.03 0.31
Turkey Jan 1.59 3.40 4.10 7.10 0.35 0.00 1.64
Feb 1.59 3.40 4.10 7.20 0.35 0.00 1.54
Pakistan Jan 2.50 6.10 4.30 10.60 0.10 0.03 2.17
Feb 2.50 6.60 4.20 10.80 0.10 0.03 2.37
Indonesia Jan 0.53 3/ 3.10 3.10 0.01 0.00 0.53
Feb 0.53 3/ 3.05 3.05 0.01 0.00 0.53
Thailand Jan 0.18 3/ 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.03 0.15
Feb 0.18 3/ 0.98 0.98 0.00 0.03 0.15
Bangladesh Jan 1.58 0.14 7.20 7.30 0.00 0.01 1.61
Feb 1.58 0.14 7.20 7.30 0.00 0.01 1.61
Vietnam Jan 1.19 3/ 7.10 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.19
Feb 1.19 3/ 6.80 6.80 0.00 0.00 1.19
==============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
Tue Feb 11 12:02:10 2020 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===========================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===========================================================================
2018/19 (Estimated)
World 80.84 118.60 42.20 120.19 41.35 0.12 79.99
World Less China 42.84 90.85 32.56 80.69 41.14 0.12 44.32
United States 4.20 18.37 3/ 2.98 14.76 -0.02 4.85
Total Foreign 76.64 100.24 42.20 117.21 26.59 0.14 75.14
Major exporters 4/ 26.84 54.62 2.50 32.99 22.37 0.02 28.57
Central Asia 5/ 2.67 5.44 3/ 3.80 2.01 0.00 2.31
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.70 5.42 3/ 0.14 5.55 0.00 1.44
S Hemis 7/ 13.01 17.32 0.18 4.39 10.86 0.01 15.24
Australia 3.04 2.20 3/ 0.04 3.63 0.00 1.57
Brazil 8.66 13.00 0.02 3.40 6.02 0.00 12.26
India 9.23 25.80 1.80 24.00 3.51 0.00 9.31
Major importers 8/ 47.95 42.65 37.16 80.06 2.99 0.11 44.60
Mexico 0.66 1.74 0.85 1.95 0.50 0.03 0.77
China 37.99 27.75 9.64 39.50 0.21 0.00 35.67
EU-27 9/ 0.30 1.72 0.64 0.69 1.72 0.03 0.23
Turkey 1.78 3.70 3.50 6.90 0.48 0.00 1.59
Pakistan 2.83 7.60 2.85 10.70 0.06 0.03 2.50
Indonesia 0.63 3/ 3.05 3.15 0.01 0.00 0.53
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.08 1.08 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh 1.86 0.14 6.90 7.30 0.00 0.01 1.58
Vietnam 1.29 3/ 6.90 7.00 0.00 0.00 1.19
2017/18
World 80.29 123.78 41.16 122.76 41.51 0.12 80.84
World Less China 34.37 96.28 35.45 81.76 41.38 0.12 42.84
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 16.28 -0.03 4.20
Total Foreign 77.54 102.86 41.16 119.54 25.24 0.15 76.64
Major exporters 4/ 21.90 57.10 2.47 32.75 21.86 0.02 26.84
Central Asia 5/ 2.18 6.50 3/ 3.38 2.63 0.00 2.67
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.46 5.44 3/ 0.14 5.06 0.00 1.70
S Hemis 7/ 10.18 15.70 0.24 4.44 8.65 0.01 13.01
Australia 2.19 4.80 3/ 0.04 3.92 0.00 3.04
Brazil 6.93 9.22 0.08 3.40 4.17 0.00 8.66
India 7.88 29.00 1.68 24.15 5.18 0.00 9.23
Major importers 8/ 54.18 42.93 36.05 82.74 2.35 0.12 47.95
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.66
China 45.92 27.50 5.71 41.00 0.14 0.00 37.99
EU-27 9/ 0.19 1.53 0.73 0.75 1.37 0.04 0.30
Turkey 1.53 4.00 4.02 7.45 0.33 0.00 1.78
Pakistan 2.32 8.20 3.40 10.90 0.16 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.52 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.63
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.15 1.13 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 7.00 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.29
===========================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
END.
