ICE No. 2 Cotton
May 12, 2026
Open High Low Settle Change
Jul '26 87.90 88.55 86.03 86.32 -145
Oct '26 88.80 88.80 86.85 87.03 -131
Dec '26 87.50 87.75 85.90 86.28 -112
Mar '27 87.92 88.20 86.44 86.78 -116
May '27 88.28 88.31 86.58 86.93 -117
Jul '27 87.20 87.20 85.65 85.96 -105
Oct '27 79.10 79.10 79.04 79.04 -2
Dec '27 76.80 76.92 76.46 76.92 +8
Mar '28 - - - 77.77 +7
May '28 - - - 78.07 +7
ICE estimated futures volume: 98,900
NY定期期近7月限は、寄り付き直後に本日の高値を付けてから値を戻した後、小幅な値動きで推移。
米国での取引開始から需給報告の発表にかけて再び堅調な値動きを見せたが、終盤にかけて売り圧力が強まり、最終的に前日比145ポイント安の86.32/LBで引けた。推定出来高は、98,900枚。
【相場要因】
本日米国農務省より月間需給報告が発表された。詳細は後述の通り。
2026/2027 CROPの最初の見通しが出されたが、世界全体・米国とも前年度と比較して生産量が減少する見通しとなった。
加えて、世界の国内消費量は前年よりも上振れする見通しとなり、報告全体として、強気な内容となった。
しかしながら、需給報告発表後から取引終盤にかけて、軟調な展開を見せることとなった。
投機筋が一部利益確定の売り注文を入れたことが売り圧力となったものと推測される。
明日から米中会談が予定されており、引き続き市場参加者は両国間で農作物に関する合意がなされるのでは、と予想している模様。
米国現地５月１４日には米国農務省週間輸出成約報告が発表される予定。
【米国農務省需給報告】
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - May 12
Tue May 12 12:01:25 2026 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2026/27 (Projected)
World
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 77.27 116.04 43.37 121.69 43.34 -0.20 71.84
World Less China
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 40.60 82.54 36.37 80.69 43.27 -0.20 35.75
United States
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 4.40 13.30 0.01 1.60 12.30 -0.10 3.90
Total foreign
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 72.87 102.74 43.36 120.09 31.04 -0.10 67.94
Major exporters 4/
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 26.95 56.69 3.60 36.90 27.87 -0.10 22.57
Central Asia 5/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.46 5.46 0.25 4.94 1.40 0.00 1.84
Afr Fr Z 6/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.23 4.17 3/ 0.11 4.11 0.00 1.18
S Hemis 7/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 11.90 22.60 0.15 4.51 20.54 -0.10 9.70
Australia Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 3.76 3.00 3/ 0.00 4.50 -0.10 2.36
Brazil Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 5.15 17.50 0.01 3.40 15.00 0.00 4.26
India Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 11.02 24.00 2.00 26.00 1.50 0.00 9.52
Major importers 8/
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 43.63 43.11 36.97 78.65 1.97 0.00 43.09
Mexico Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.21 0.65 0.65 1.20 0.10 0.00 0.21
China Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 36.66 33.50 7.00 41.00 0.08 0.00 36.09
European Union 9/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.26 1.20 0.45 0.48 1.12 0.00 0.31
Turkey Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.13 2.50 4.80 6.80 0.60 0.00 1.03
Pakistan Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.05 5.10 5.30 10.40 0.05 0.00 2.00
Indonesia Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.40 3/ 1.90 1.90 0.02 0.00 0.38
Thailand Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.11 3/ 0.45 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.11
Bangladesh Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.77 0.15 7.80 8.00 0.00 0.00 1.72
Vietnam Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.92 3/ 8.00 7.80 0.00 0.00 1.12
=============================================================================
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2025/26 (Estimated)
World 74.52 122.64 43.78 120.13 43.78 -0.24 77.27
World Less China 39.68 86.84 37.18 79.63 43.70 -0.24 40.60
United States 4.00 13.90 0.01 1.60 12.00 -0.10 4.40
Total Foreign 70.52 108.74 43.78 118.53 31.78 -0.14 72.87
Major exporters 4/ 25.97 59.78 5.70 36.25 28.41 -0.16 26.95
Central Asia 5/ 2.91 5.73 0.25 4.94 1.49 0.00 2.46
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.37 4.03 3/ 0.11 4.07 0.00 1.23
S Hemis 7/ 11.73 25.80 0.15 4.46 21.48 -0.16 11.90
Australia 4.80 4.50 3/ 0.00 5.70 -0.16 3.76
Brazil 3.70 19.50 0.01 3.35 14.70 0.00 5.15
India 9.52 23.80 4.20 25.50 1.00 0.00 11.02
Major importers 8/ 42.31 46.08 35.30 77.77 2.25 0.02 43.63
Mexico 0.31 0.57 0.65 1.20 0.10 0.02 0.21
China 34.84 35.80 6.60 40.50 0.08 0.00 36.66
European Union 9/ 0.19 1.20 0.45 0.48 1.10 0.00 0.26
Turkey 1.28 3.05 4.50 6.80 0.90 0.00 1.13
Pakistan 2.30 5.30 4.80 10.30 0.05 0.00 2.05
Indonesia 0.41 3/ 1.90 1.90 0.02 0.00 0.40
Thailand 0.11 3/ 0.48 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.11
Bangladesh 1.71 0.15 7.70 7.80 0.00 0.00 1.77
Vietnam 1.02 3/ 7.60 7.70 0.00 0.00 0.92
2024/25
World 73.45 119.34 43.03 119.11 42.43 -0.23 74.52
World Less China 36.74 87.34 37.85 80.11 42.37 -0.23 39.68
United States 3.15 14.41 3/ 1.70 11.90 -0.04 4.00
Total Foreign 70.30 104.93 43.03 117.41 30.53 -0.19 70.52
Major exporters 4/ 24.27 58.82 4.29 35.07 26.52 -0.19 25.97
Central Asia 5/ 3.13 5.09 0.10 3.94 1.47 0.00 2.91
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.29 4.44 3/ 0.10 4.27 0.00 1.37
S Hemis 7/ 10.19 24.70 0.15 4.36 19.13 -0.19 11.73
Australia 4.22 5.60 3/ 0.00 5.21 -0.19 4.80
Brazil 2.97 17.00 3/ 3.26 13.02 0.00 3.70
India 9.30 24.00 3.04 25.50 1.33 0.00 9.52
Major importers 8/ 43.86 43.35 35.91 77.80 3.01 0.00 42.31
Mexico 0.24 1.00 0.60 1.35 0.18 0.00 0.31
China 36.71 32.00 5.19 39.00 0.06 0.00 34.84
European Union 9/ 0.27 1.24 0.41 0.46 1.27 0.00 0.19
Turkey 1.40 3.95 4.46 7.10 1.43 0.00 1.28
Pakistan 1.85 5.00 6.10 10.60 0.05 0.00 2.30
Indonesia 0.40 3/ 1.98 1.95 0.02 0.00 0.41
Thailand 0.09 3/ 0.51 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.11
Bangladesh 1.71 0.15 8.05 8.20 0.00 0.00 1.71
Vietnam 1.03 3/ 7.98 8.00 0.00 0.00 1.02
===============================================================================
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
========================================================================
Item 2025/2026 2026/2027
Apr May 12 Apr May 12
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 9.28 9.28 (NA) 9.64 **
Harvested 7.80 7.83 (NA) 7.38 **
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 856 852 (NA) 866 **
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.00 4.00 (NA) 4.40
Production 13.92 13.90 (NA) 13.30
Imports 0.01 0.01 (NA) 0.01
Supply, total 17.92 17.90 (NA) 17.71
Domestic use 1.60 1.60 (NA) 1.60
Exports 12.00 12.00 (NA) 12.30
Use, total 13.60 13.60 (NA) 13.90
Unaccounted 2/ -0.08 -0.10 (NA) -0.10
Ending stocks 4.40 4.40 (NA) 3.90
Avg. frm prc 3/ 61.00 63.00 (NA) 73.00
=========================================================================
Cotton: Production and Bales Ginned by Type,
State, and United States, 2024-25
============================================================================
Production in Lint- Bales Ginned in
Type 480-lb Net Weight seed 480-lb Net Weight
and Bales 1/ Ratio Bales 2/
State ================================================================
2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025
============================================================================
---- 1,000 Bales --- -------- Bales --------
Upland
AL 673.0 563.0 649,100 562,550
AZ 257.0 256.0 244,950 241,050
AK 1,788.0 1,329.0 1,985,950 1,457,450
CA 75.0 82.0 89,300 95,700
FL 119.0 110.0 116,100 91,950
GA 1,930.0 1,775.0 1,944,900 1,791,900
KS 201.0 155.0 179,100 165,200
LA 330.0 225.0 336,550 229,050
MS 1,241.0 790.0 1,178,550 730,850
MO 1,045.0 768.0 911,950 694,950
NM 40.0 39.0 22,200 12,400
NC 783.0 639.0 826,300 677,300
OK 270.0 665.0 168,750 534,050
SC 396.0 345.0 337,700 291,250
TN 548.0 352.0 545,550 350,550
TX 4,030.0 5,230.0 4,156,550 5,356,400
VA 213.0 169.0 220,800 178,900
U.S. 13,939.0 13,492.0 13,914,300 13,461,500
American-Pima
AZ 30.0 29.0 29,700 28,700
CA 366.0 319.0 364,900 318,450
NM 24.0 22.0 22,400 19,450
TX 51.0 35.0 51,750 36,150
U.S. 471.0 405.0 468,750 402,750
All
AL 673.0 563.0 649,100 562,550
AZ 287.0 285.0 274,650 269,750
AK 1,788.0 1,329.0 1,985,950 1,457,450
CA 441.0 401.0 454,200 414,150
FL 119.0 110.0 116,100 91,950
GA 1,930.0 1,775.0 1,944,900 1,791,900
KS 201.0 155.0 179,100 165,200
LA 330.0 225.0 336,550 229,050
MS 1,241.0 790.0 1,178,550 730,850
MO 1,045.0 768.0 911,950 694,950
NM 64.0 61.0 44,600 31,850
NC 783.0 639.0 826,300 677,300
OK 270.0 665.0 168,750 534,050
SC 396.0 345.0 337,700 291,250
TN 548.0 352.0 545,550 350,550
TX 4,081.0 5,265.0 4,208,300 5,392,550
VA 213.0 169.0 220,800 178,900
U.S. 14,410.0 13,897.0 14,383,050 13,864,250
============================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ Equivalent 480-pound net weight bales ginned, not adjusted for cross-state
movement.
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
END
