ICE No. 2 Cotton
April 10, 2025
Open High Low Settle Change
May '25 66.60 67.62 66.18 66.47 -16
Jul '25 67.37 68.13 66.73 67.00 -31
Oct '25 69.26 69.26 68.61 68.62 -29
Dec '25 68.47 69.32 68.02 68.28 -19
Mar '26 69.60 70.37 69.18 69.40 -17
May '26 70.42 71.05 70.02 70.20 -18
Jul '26 70.87 71.47 70.38 70.53 -32
Oct '26 69.72 69.72 68.75 68.75 -52
Dec '26 68.46 69.07 67.42 67.70 -76
Mar '27 - - - 68.73 -76
ICE estimated futures volume: 102,400
NY定期期近5月限は、寄り付きから取引を通して小幅な値動きで方向感乏しく推移した。
輸出成約報告が発表されると一時的に強含み、本日の高値を付けたが、その後需給報告が発表されると徐々に値を戻していった。
最終的に前日比16ポイント安の66.47/lbで引けた。
期近7月限も同様の値動きを見せ、最終的に前日比31ポイント安の67.00/lbで引けている。
推定出来高は、102,400枚。
【相場要因】
引き続きトランプ大統領による各国への関税政策の動向が市場参加者の注目の的となっている。
中国を除く各国に対しての90日間の猶予期間の間に各国との間で関税交渉が行われるものと見られ、市場参加者はその成り行きを見守っている様子。
一方、中国とは報復関税の掛け合いで緊張感の高まりを見せている。トランプ大統領は、対中追加関税を125％に引き上げるとし、対中関税は既存の20%と合わせて、合計145%となる。
本日発表された米国農務省月間需給報告は、世界の需給とも若干下方修正される内容となったが、輸入・国内消費合わせた需要サイドの下げ幅が若干大きく、結果的に期末在庫を上方修正させるというやや弱気なレポートとなった。詳細後述。
ただし、前述の関税動向の影響がまだ反映されていないとの見方も強く、今後の関税交渉の成り行き次第で需給バランスが大きく変わる可能性もあることから、市場への影響は限定的だった模様。
また、同レポートに先んじて米国農務省週間輸出成約報告が発表されている。引き続き成約・船積とも堅調な数字が記録されているが、こちらも相場への影響は限定的だった。
技術的にも、今後の関税交渉の成り行きによって、上下いずれの方向にも動く可能性があることを示唆しているようにも見受けられる。
【米国農務省月間需給報告】
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Apr 10
Thu Apr 10 12:03:08 2025 EDT
U.S.Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===================================================================
Item 2023/24 2024/25
prev Apr 10 prev Apr 10
===================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.23 10.23 11.18 11.18
Harvested 6.44 6.44 8.27 8.27
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 899.00 899.00 836.00 836.00
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.65 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 12.07 12.07 14.41 14.41
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 16.72 16.72 17.57 17.57
Domestic use 1.85 1.85 1.70 1.70
Exports 11.75 11.75 11.00 10.90
Use, total 13.60 13.60 12.70 12.60
Unaccounted 2/ -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03
Ending stocks 3.15 3.15 4.90 5.00
Avg. farm price 3/ 76.10 76.10 63.00 63.00
===================================================================
Note: 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Thu Apr 10 12:03:47 2025 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===========================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===========================================================================
2023/24 (Estimated)
World 75.90 112.98 44.06 114.80 44.61 -0.21 73.74
World Less China 42.55 85.63 29.08 75.90 44.54 -0.21 37.02
United States 4.65 12.07 3/ 1.85 11.75 -0.03 3.15
Total Foreign 71.25 100.92 44.05 112.95 32.86 -0.18 70.59
Major exporters 4/ 27.28 57.96 1.63 34.38 28.29 -0.18 24.38
Central Asia 5/ 3.69 5.03 0.05 3.89 1.67 0.00 3.20
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 0.96 5.02 3/ 0.10 4.59 0.00 1.29
S Hemis 7/ 11.34 22.03 0.15 4.22 19.25 -0.18 10.22
Australia 4.78 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.74 -0.18 4.20
Brazil 4.01 14.57 0.01 3.16 12.31 0.00 3.11
India 10.82 25.40 0.89 25.50 2.31 0.00 9.30
Major importers 8/ 41.77 39.62 39.96 74.50 2.99 0.00 43.87
Mexico 0.38 0.87 0.70 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.24
China 33.36 27.35 14.98 38.90 0.06 0.00 36.72
European Union 9/ 0.39 1.04 0.48 0.51 1.14 0.00 0.26
Turkey 2.63 3.20 3.57 6.60 1.39 0.00 1.41
Pakistan 1.53 7.00 3.20 9.70 0.18 0.00 1.85
Indonesia 0.36 3/ 1.85 1.80 0.01 0.00 0.40
Thailand 0.14 3/ 0.40 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.09
Bangladesh 1.73 0.16 7.58 7.75 0.00 0.00 1.71
Vietnam 1.05 3/ 6.59 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.03
2022/23
World 70.88 116.30 37.74 112.64 36.65 -0.27 75.90
World Less China 36.72 85.55 31.51 74.94 36.55 -0.27 42.55
United States 4.60 14.47 3/ 2.05 12.45 -0.08 4.65
Total Foreign 66.28 101.83 37.74 110.59 24.20 -0.19 71.25
Major exporters 4/ 21.76 55.72 2.47 32.81 20.05 -0.20 27.28
Central Asia 5/ 2.73 5.50 0.10 3.53 1.12 0.00 3.69
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.01 4.02 3/ 0.10 3.98 0.00 0.96
S Hemis 7/ 9.19 19.32 0.14 4.12 13.39 -0.20 11.34
Australia 4.98 5.80 3/ 0.01 6.19 -0.20 4.78
Brazil 2.05 11.72 0.01 3.11 6.66 0.00 4.01
India 8.40 26.30 1.73 24.50 1.10 0.00 10.82
Major importers 8/ 42.77 42.93 32.86 73.77 3.01 0.02 41.77
Mexico 0.32 1.58 0.69 1.80 0.41 0.00 0.38
China 34.17 30.75 6.23 37.70 0.09 0.00 33.36
European Union 9/ 0.30 1.64 0.52 0.56 1.52 0.00 0.39
Turkey 1.92 4.90 4.19 7.50 0.86 0.02 2.63
Pakistan 1.93 3.90 4.50 8.70 0.10 0.00 1.53
Indonesia 0.46 3/ 1.66 1.75 0.02 0.00 0.36
Thailand 0.15 3/ 0.66 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bangladesh 2.28 0.15 7.00 7.70 0.00 0.00 1.73
Vietnam 1.02 3/ 6.47 6.45 0.00 0.00 1.05
===========================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes
Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Apr 10
Thu Apr 10 12:03:43 2025 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
==============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
==============================================================================
2024/25 (Projected)
World
Mar 73.71 120.96 42.69 116.54 42.71 -0.22 78.33
Apr 73.74 120.89 42.36 116.02 42.33 -0.22 78.86
World Less China
Mar 37.00 89.21 35.89 79.04 42.61 -0.22 40.66
Apr 37.02 88.89 35.86 79.02 42.23 -0.22 40.74
United States
Mar 3.15 14.41 0.01 1.70 11.00 -0.03 4.90
Apr 3.15 14.41 0.01 1.70 10.90 -0.03 5.00
Total foreign
Mar 70.56 106.55 42.68 114.84 31.71 -0.19 73.43
Apr 70.59 106.48 42.36 114.32 31.43 -0.19 73.86
Major exporters 4/
Mar 24.35 60.18 3.47 34.82 27.49 -0.19 25.89
Apr 24.38 59.90 3.52 34.85 27.07 -0.19 26.08
Central Asia 5/ Mar 3.20 5.14 0.10 4.07 1.41 0.00 2.96
Apr 3.20 5.14 0.10 4.07 1.46 0.00 2.91
Afr Fr Z 6/ Mar 1.29 4.71 3/ 0.10 4.58 0.00 1.33
Apr 1.29 4.61 3/ 0.10 4.40 0.00 1.41
S Hemis 7/ Mar 10.22 24.76 0.15 4.36 19.66 -0.19 11.30
Apr 10.22 24.57 0.15 4.36 19.41 -0.19 11.37
Australia Mar 4.20 5.40 3/ 0.01 5.40 -0.19 4.38
Apr 4.20 5.40 3/ 0.01 5.30 -0.19 4.48
Brazil Mar 3.11 17.00 0.01 3.30 13.00 0.00 3.82
Apr 3.11 17.00 0.01 3.30 12.90 0.00 3.92
India Mar 9.30 25.00 2.60 25.50 1.40 0.00 10.00
Apr 9.30 25.00 2.60 25.50 1.40 0.00 10.00
Major Importers 8/
Mar 43.87 42.99 36.37 75.53 2.52 0.00 45.18
Apr 43.87 43.20 36.00 74.96 2.70 0.00 45.41
Mexico Mar 0.24 0.83 0.70 1.40 0.15 0.00 0.22
Apr 0.24 0.83 0.65 1.35 0.15 0.00 0.22
China Mar 36.72 31.75 6.80 37.50 0.10 0.00 37.67
Apr 36.72 32.00 6.50 37.00 0.10 0.00 38.12
European Union 9/ Mar 0.26 1.26 0.51 0.54 1.20 0.00 0.29
Apr 0.26 1.21 0.51 0.54 1.17 0.00 0.27
Turkey Mar 1.41 4.00 4.20 7.00 1.00 0.00 1.61
Apr 1.41 4.00 4.30 7.10 1.20 0.00 1.41
Pakistan Mar 1.85 5.00 5.50 10.30 0.05 0.00 2.00
Apr 1.85 5.00 5.50 10.30 0.05 0.00 2.00
Indonesia Mar 0.40 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.01 0.00 0.39
Apr 0.40 3/ 1.90 1.90 0.02 0.00 0.38
Thailand Mar 0.09 3/ 0.45 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.08
Apr 0.09 3/ 0.45 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.08
Bangladesh Mar 1.71 0.15 8.20 8.30 0.00 0.00 1.76
Apr 1.71 0.15 8.20 8.30 0.00 0.00 1.76
Vietnam Mar 1.03 3/ 7.40 7.40 0.00 0.00 1.04
Apr 1.03 3/ 7.40 7.40 0.00 0.00 1.04
==============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes
Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
Write to Taryn Boss at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 10, 2025 12:03 ET (16:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
【米国農務省週間輸出成約報告】
DJ U.S. Export Sales and Shipments: Upland, Pima Cotton - Apr 10
Thu Apr 10 08:35:33 2025 EDT
For the week ended Apr 03 in thousand running bales. Source: USDA.
The current marketing year for cotton begins Aug 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
(2024-2025) (2025-2026)
=====current marketing year===== ====next year====
Week's net Week's Season's Season's Week's net Season's
Change in Export Export Total Change in Total
Commits Shipments Shipments Commits Commits Commits
==upland==
ALGERIA 0 0 4.4 4.4 0 0
BANGLADESH 3.1 15.2 317.8 548.6 0 42.9
BELGIUM 0 0 0.2 0.4 0 0
CHINA -1.8 5.7 627.5 705.6 0 8.8
COLOMBIA 0 0.3 8.0 15.4 0 0
COSTA RICA 0 1.0 49.1 84.9 0 20.4
DJIBOUTI AFARS-ISSAS 0 0 4.9 5.0 0 0
ECUADOR 0 0.4 31.8 45.9 0 0.4
EGYPT 1.8 0 0.1 2.6 0 0
EL SALVADOR 1.0 0.9 125.3 200.5 4.3 76.0
GERMANY 0 0.4 1.3 2.2 0 0
GUATEMALA 0 13.8 156.3 266.4 0 67.8
HONDURAS 6.1 12.9 208.8 311.3 6.6 97.8
HONG KONG 0 0 0 7.5 0 0
INDIA 1.4 12.8 272.2 321.2 0 2.6
INDONESIA 3.1 8.1 180.6 262.3 0 70.4
ITALY 0 0 3.4 4.0 0 3.3
JAPAN 2.0 0.4 42.6 67.1 0 20.8
KOREA REPUBLIC 2.9 0.4 71.2 131.8 0 0
MALAYSIA 4.4 4.0 113.5 157.5 0 96.8
MEXICO 0.0 14.8 398.2 642.8 0 198.0
NICARAGUA 0 6.4 97.4 122.5 0 18.9
PAKISTAN -0.8 69.1 1442.2 2207.7 0 166.6
PERU 0 11.5 136.9 196.5 0 2.5
PORTUGAL 0 0 12.2 15.3 0 0
TAIWAN 0.6 0.8 47.5 58.6 0 0
THAILAND 7.5 5.7 123.2 237.1 1.4 13.7
TURKEY 19.1 64.3 685.2 1523.5 0 139.7
VENEZUELA 0 0 3.1 5.6 0 0
VIETNAM 64.8 128.4 1596.4 2399.1 6.6 20.7
TOTAL KNOWN 115.1 377.2 6761.1 10553.1 18.9 1068.0
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 115.1 377.2 6761.1 10553.1 18.9 1068.0
==pima==
BAHRAIN 0 0 0.4 0.4 0 0
BANGLADESH 0 0 4.8 7.0 0 0
BRAZIL 0 0 0.9 0.9 0 0
CHINA 1.0 1.0 45.1 47.8 0 0
COLOMBIA 0 0.3 2.4 4.3 0 0
COSTA RICA 0 0.9 1.7 1.7 0 0
DJIBOUTI AFARS-ISSAS 0 0 0.9 0.9 0 0
EGYPT 0 1.8 4.9 10.8 0 0.7
ETHIOPIA 0 0 0 2.6 0 0
GERMANY 0.1 0 0.4 0.7 0 0
GUATEMALA 0.3 0 1.7 2.0 0 0
HONDURAS 0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0 0
HONG KONG -1.0 0 0 0.9 0 0
INDIA 2.2 2.0 113.6 154.0 0 0
INDONESIA 0 0 2.2 2.8 0 0
ITALY 0 0.3 2.9 6.4 0 1.0
JAPAN 0 0 2.4 3.2 0 0
KOREA REPUBLIC 0 0 1.2 1.2 0 0
MALAYSIA 0 0 0.6 0.7 0 0
MEXICO 0 0 0.2 0.3 0 0
NICARAGUA 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0
PAKISTAN 0 0 21.8 27.9 0 0
PERU 0.2 0 36.0 45.8 0 0
SLOVENIA 0 0 0.2 0.4 0 0
SWITZERLAND 0 0 0 0.2 0 0
TAIWAN 0 0 0.4 0.4 0 0
THAILAND 0 0.2 7.1 9.5 0 0
TURKEY 0 0.2 6.3 7.2 0 0
VIETNAM 0 1.1 26.1 45.1 0 0
TOTAL KNOWN 2.7 8.0 284.8 385.5 0 1.7
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 2.7 8.0 284.8 385.5 0 1.7
Write to Valena Henderson at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 10, 2025 08:35 ET (12:35 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
END.
