ICE COTTON FUTURES
MAY 12,2021
Open High Low Close Change
Jul 21 87.69 89.74 87.44 88.23 +.48
Oct 21 - - - 86.64 +.21
Dec 21 85.43 86.49 84.92 85.67 +.14
Mar 22 84.94 85.94 84.51 85.25 +.13
May 22 84.44 85.30 84.02 84.74 +.13
Jul 22 83.78 84.46 83.40 84.08 +.12
Oct 22 - - - 80.33 +.26
Dec 22 77.50 77.85 77.25 77.39 -.18
Mar 21 - - - 77.59 -.18
May 21 - - - 78.24 -.18
ICE estimated futures volume:29,200
7月限は寄付からじりじりと値を上げ米国未明に89セント台に乗ったあたりで下落し、米国早朝に88セントを割った。その後、持ち直し、需給報告が発表されると更に100ポイントほど上昇し、90セントに近づくも下落。もみ合いながら引けを迎えた。結果、前日比48ポイント高の88.23/LBで引けた。推定出来高は29,200枚。
【相場動向要因】
綿花相場は米国農務省から発表された需給報告に一時反応したものの、まもなく落ち着いた。需給報告では今季の米国綿花輸出量が予想よりも多い50万俵の上方修正がなされた一方で、生産量は9万俵の下方修正が加わった。その結果、期末在庫が60万俵下方修正され、330万俵となった。加えて、中国でも綿花輸入量が25万俵上方修正された。また、今月からレポートされる来季の予想では、米国綿花の生産量は1700万俵と大方の予想通りに数字となった。しかしながら、この生産量は依然楽観的なものとみられている。
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2021/22 (Projected)
World
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 93.16 119.44 45.51 121.48 45.51 0.13 90.99
World Less China
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 54.56 91.94 35.01 81.48 45.46 0.13 54.44
United States
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 3.30 17.00 3/ 2.50 14.70 0.00 3.10
Total foreign
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 89.86 102.44 45.51 118.98 30.81 0.13 87.89
Major exporters 4/
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 38.26 60.12 1.74 34.57 26.74 0.02 38.78
Central Asia 5/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.39 5.63 3/ 4.27 1.49 0.00 2.26
Afr Fr Z 6/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.07 5.85 3/ 0.14 5.50 0.00 2.27
S Hemis 7/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 16.43 19.27 0.16 4.05 13.38 0.01 18.42
Australia Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.87 3.90 3/ 0.04 3.20 0.00 2.53
Brazil Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 12.23 13.25 0.03 3.10 9.00 0.00 13.40
India Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 17.18 29.00 1.00 25.50 6.00 0.00 15.68
Major importers 8/
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 48.94 39.20 41.30 80.44 2.46 0.11 46.43
Mexico Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.41 1.05 0.90 1.70 0.25 0.03 0.39
China Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 38.60 27.50 10.50 40.00 0.05 0.00 36.55
European Union 9/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.29 1.80 0.60 0.64 1.70 0.03 0.31
Turkey Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.52 3.40 5.00 8.00 0.40 0.00 2.52
Pakistan Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.84 5.30 5.00 10.50 0.05 0.03 2.57
Indonesia Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.49 3/ 2.50 2.50 0.01 0.00 0.49
Thailand Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.10 3/ 0.55 0.55 0.00 0.03 0.08
Bangladesh Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.35 0.15 7.60 8.00 0.00 0.01 2.09
Vietnam Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.11 3/ 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.00 1.22
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1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia,
Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina
Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali,
Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South
Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
END
