2025年7月14日月曜日

NY FUTURES July 11, 2025

July 11, 2025

          Open      High      Low       Settle    Change

Oct '25   66.57     66.57     66.05     66.20     -5

Dec '25   67.55     67.94     67.25     67.42     -31

Mar '26   69.01     69.24     68.56     68.75     -31

May '26   70.14     70.29     69.64     69.80     -32

July '26  70.98     71.08     70.43     70.59     -34

Oct  '26    -         -         -       69.66     -24

Dec '26   69.59     69.60     69.11     69.28     -22

Mar '27     -         -         -       69.89     -16

May '27     -         -         -       70.43     -15

July '27    -         -         -       70.75     -15

ICE estimated futures volume: 25,700   

 

期近12月限は、寄り付きから小幅に推移し、米国時間の早朝にかけて弱気の展開。

最終的に、前日比31ポイント安の67.42/LBで引けた。推定出来高は25,700枚。

 

【相場要因】

7月度の需給報告が発表された。詳細後述。

米綿 25/26 CROP の生産量について上方修正がされたが、相場への与える影響は限定的だった様子。

トランプ大統領は違法薬物の流入が継続していることを理由に、カナダに対して35%の関税を課すことを発表した。

さらに、前日にはブラジルに対して過去最高水準の関税を課すことが発表されていた。

市場ではマクロ経済的な先行き不透明感から、投機筋によるリスクオフの動きが一部でみられたとのこと。

その他のコーン、大豆や小麦などの穀物相場も下げており綿花相場の弱気な展開を後押ししたと一部でみられている。

 

【月間需給報告】

米綿2025/26 CROPの生産量は60万俵上方修正され1,460万俵、輸出量は1,250万俵 の据え置き、期末在庫は30万俵上方修正され460万俵 。

 

その他の主な修正は以下の通り。

・世界の生産量が、143万俵上方修正され1,118.42万俵。

・世界の消費量が、113万俵上方修正され1,118.12万俵。

・中国の生産量が、100万俵上方修正され3,100万俵。

・中国の輸入量が、70万俵下方修正され580万俵。

・パキスタンの生産量が、20万俵下方修正され500万俵。

・パキスタンの国内消費量が、30万俵の上方修正がされ1,090万俵。

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Jul 11

 

Fri Jul 11 12:03:09 2025 EDT

 

                                    U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/

=========================================================================

Item                        2024/2025                   2025/2026

                        prev        Jul 11          prev         Jul 11

==========================================================================

Area

                        Million acres

Planted                 11.18        11.18         9.87 *       10.12 **

Harvested                7.81         7.81         8.19 *        8.66 **

                        Pounds

Yield per harv. acre      886          886          820 *         809 **

                        Million 480 pound bales

Beginning stocks         3.15         3.15           4.40           4.10

Production              14.41        14.41          14.00          14.60

Imports                  0.01         0.01           0.01           0.01

Supply, total           17.57        17.57          18.41          18.71

Domestic use             1.70         1.70           1.70           1.70

Exports, total          11.50        11.80          12.50          12.50

Use, total              13.20        13.50          14.20          14.20

Unaccounted 2/          -0.03        -0.03          -0.10          -0.10

Ending stocks            4.40         4.10           4.30           4.60

Avg. farm price 3/      63.00        63.00          62.00          62.00

==========================================================================

Note:  1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.

Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the

previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound

for upland cotton. *Planted area as reported in March 31, 2025 Prospective

Plantings. Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region,

with the Southwest and Delta adjusted to reflect moisture conditions. Yield

based on 5-year average yields by region, with the Delta adjusted to reflect

delayed planting. **Planted area as reported in June 30, 2025 Acreage.

Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region, with the

Southwest, Delta and Southeast adjusted to reflect moisture conditions. Yield

based on 5-year average yields by region, with additional reductions for the

Delta and Southwest.

 

Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com

 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

  July 11, 2025 12:03 ET (16:03 GMT)

 

  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Jul 11

 

Fri Jul 11 12:04:08 2025 EDT

 

                               World Cotton Supply and Use 1/

                                (Million 480-pound bales)

=============================================================================

                     beginning                domestic exports         ending

                       stocks   prod  imports    use           loss 2/ stocks

=============================================================================

                                           2025/26 (Projected)

World

                  Jun   77.29  116.99   44.82  117.76   44.79   -0.25   76.80

                  Jul   76.78  118.42   44.68  118.12   44.69   -0.25   77.32

World Less China

                  Jun   40.17   86.99   38.32   81.26   44.69   -0.25   39.78

                  Jul   39.94   87.42   38.88   81.62   44.61   -0.25   40.25

United States

                  Jun    4.40   14.00    0.01    1.70   12.50   -0.10    4.30

                  Jul    4.10   14.60    0.01    1.70   12.50   -0.10    4.60

Total foreign

                  Jun   72.89  102.99   44.81  116.06   32.29   -0.15   72.50

                  Jul   72.68  103.82   44.68  116.42   32.19   -0.15   72.72

Major exporters 4/

                  Jun   26.12   58.72    4.45   35.52   28.23   -0.15   25.68

                  Jul   26.17   58.65    4.45   35.52   28.18   -0.15   25.71

Central Asia 5/   Jun    2.87    5.10    0.20    4.08    1.44    0.00    2.65

                  Jul    2.87    5.10    0.20    4.08    1.44    0.00    2.65

Afr Fr Z 6/       Jun    1.41    4.83      3/    0.11    4.83    0.00    1.31

                  Jul    1.41    4.83      3/    0.11    4.83    0.00    1.31

S Hemis 7/        Jun   11.72   24.81    0.15    4.56   20.61   -0.15   11.65

                  Jul   11.72   24.81    0.15    4.56   20.61   -0.15   11.65

Australia         Jun    4.93    4.10      3/    0.00    5.00   -0.15    4.18

                  Jul    4.93    4.10      3/    0.00    5.00   -0.15    4.18

Brazil            Jun    3.82   18.25    0.01    3.50   14.30    0.00    4.27

                  Jul    3.82   18.25    0.01    3.50   14.30    0.00    4.27

India             Jun    9.70   23.50    3.00   25.50    1.00    0.00    9.70

                  Jul    9.75   23.50    3.00   25.50    1.00    0.00    9.75

Major importers 8/

                  Jun   44.39   40.94   37.23   75.72    2.52    0.00   44.32

                  Jul   44.13   41.84   37.09   76.08    2.47    0.00   44.51

Mexico            Jun    0.22    0.70    0.60    1.25    0.10    0.00    0.17

                  Jul    0.24    0.80    0.60    1.35    0.10    0.00    0.19

China             Jun   37.12   30.00    6.50   36.50    0.10    0.00   37.02

                  Jul   36.84   31.00    5.80   36.50    0.08    0.00   37.07

European Union 9/ Jun    0.29    1.28    0.51    0.55    1.24    0.00    0.28

                  Jul    0.23    1.28    0.47    0.51    1.22    0.00    0.25

Turkey            Jun    1.35    3.60    4.80    7.30    1.00    0.00    1.45

                  Jul    1.30    3.60    4.80    7.30    1.00    0.00    1.40

Pakistan          Jun    2.00    5.20    5.30   10.60    0.05    0.00    1.85

                  Jul    2.10    5.00    5.90   10.90    0.05    0.00    2.05

Indonesia         Jun    0.38      3/    2.00    2.00    0.02    0.00    0.37

                  Jul    0.38      3/    2.00    2.00    0.02    0.00    0.37

Thailand          Jun    0.09      3/    0.50    0.50    0.00    0.00    0.09

                  Jul    0.09      3/    0.50    0.50    0.00    0.00    0.09

Bangladesh        Jun    1.76    0.15    8.40    8.40    0.00    0.00    1.92

                  Jul    1.76    0.15    8.40    8.40    0.00    0.00    1.92

Vietnam           Jun    1.04      3/    8.00    8.00    0.00    0.00    1.04

                  Jul    1.04      3/    8.00    8.00    0.00    0.00    1.04

=============================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade

   may not balance due to rounding and other factors.       2/ Generally

   reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia

   and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks

   based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.  3/ Less than

   5,000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and

   regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,

   Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central

   African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.  7/

   Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and

   Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes

   Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

 

Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com

 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

  July 11, 2025 12:04 ET (16:04 GMT)

 

  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2

 

Fri Jul 11 12:04:11 2025 EDT

 

                      World Cotton Supply and Use 1/  (continued)

                              (Million 480-pound bales)

===============================================================================

                 beginning                  domestic  exports            ending

                   stocks     prod  imports      use            loss 2/  stocks

===============================================================================

                                           2024/25 (Estimated)

World               73.74   119.90    42.61   116.70    42.99    -0.22    76.78

World Less China    37.02    87.90    37.41    79.70    42.92    -0.22    39.94

United States        3.15    14.41     0.01     1.70    11.80    -0.03     4.10

Total Foreign       70.59   105.49    42.61   115.00    31.19    -0.19    72.68

Major exporters 4/  24.40    58.86     4.09    34.64    26.74    -0.19    26.17

Central Asia 5/      3.18     5.09     0.10     4.06     1.44     0.00     2.87

Afr. Fr. Zone 6/     1.30     4.61       3/     0.10     4.40     0.00     1.41

S Hemis 7/          10.27    24.57     0.14     4.35    19.11    -0.19    11.72

Australia            4.24     5.60       3/     0.00     5.10    -0.19     4.93

Brazil               3.11    17.00     0.01     3.30    13.00     0.00     3.82

India                9.30    24.00     2.85    25.00     1.40     0.00     9.75

Major importers 8/  43.86    43.25    35.64    75.75     2.88     0.00    44.13

Mexico               0.24     0.90     0.65     1.40     0.15     0.00     0.24

China               36.72    32.00     5.20    37.00     0.08     0.00    36.84

European Union 9/    0.26     1.24     0.45     0.50     1.23     0.00     0.23

Turkey               1.40     3.95     4.30     7.00     1.35     0.00     1.30

Pakistan             1.85     5.00     6.10    10.80     0.05     0.00     2.10

Indonesia            0.40       3/     1.85     1.85     0.02     0.00     0.38

Thailand             0.09       3/     0.48     0.48     0.00     0.00     0.09

Bangladesh           1.71     0.15     8.20     8.30     0.00     0.00     1.76

Vietnam              1.03       3/     7.80     7.80     0.00     0.00     1.04

                                           2023/24

World               75.90   112.96    44.05   114.80    44.59    -0.21    73.74

World Less China    42.55    85.61    29.08    75.90    44.53    -0.21    37.02

United States        4.65    12.07       3/     1.85    11.75    -0.03     3.15

Total Foreign       71.25   100.90    44.05   112.95    32.84    -0.18    70.59

Major exporters 4/  27.28    57.95     1.63    34.36    28.27    -0.18    24.40

Central Asia 5/      3.66     5.02     0.05     3.89     1.66     0.00     3.18

Afr. Fr. Zone 6/     0.96     5.02       3/     0.10     4.59     0.00     1.30

S Hemis 7/          11.37    22.03     0.15     4.21    19.25    -0.18    10.27

Australia            4.81     5.00       3/     0.00     5.74    -0.18     4.24

Brazil               4.01    14.57     0.01     3.16    12.31     0.00     3.11

India               10.82    25.40     0.89    25.50     2.31     0.00     9.30

Major importers 8/  41.77    39.61    39.96    74.49     2.99     0.00    43.86

Mexico               0.38     0.87     0.70     1.50     0.20     0.00     0.24

China               33.36    27.35    14.98    38.90     0.06     0.00    36.72

European Union 9/    0.39     1.04     0.47     0.51     1.13     0.00     0.26

Turkey               2.63     3.19     3.57     6.60     1.39     0.00     1.40

Pakistan             1.53     7.00     3.20     9.70     0.18     0.00     1.85

Indonesia            0.36       3/     1.85     1.80     0.01     0.00     0.40

Thailand             0.14       3/     0.40     0.45     0.00     0.00     0.09

Bangladesh           1.73     0.16     7.58     7.75     0.00     0.00     1.71

Vietnam              1.05       3/     6.59     6.60     0.00     0.00     1.03

===============================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade

   may not balance due to rounding and other factors.       2/ Generally

   reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia

   and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks

   based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.  3/ Less than

   5,000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and

   regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,

   Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central

   African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.  7/

   Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and

   Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes

   Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

 

Write to Rodney Christian at [email protected]

 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

  July 11, 2025 12:04 ET (16:04 GMT)

 

  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.