ICE No. 2 Cotton
AUGUST 12,2024
Open High Low Settle Change
Oct '24 67.55 69.95 67.55 68.29 +120
Dec '24 68.34 70.80 68.12 69.07 +73
Mar '25 69.77 71.98 69.55 70.50 +82
May '25 70.96 72.85 70.82 71.72 +81
July '25 71.74 73.39 71.74 72.50 +76
Oct '25 - - - 71.67 +89
Dec '25 70.29 71.35 70.29 70.82 +72
Mar '26 72.34 72.34 72.13 72.13 +71
May '26 73.20 73.20 72.91 72.91 +71
July '26 73.88 73.88 73.56 73.56 +71
ICE estimated futures volume: 56,400
NY定期期近12月限は寄り付きからしばらくは動意薄で小幅な値動きを見せた。
米国農務省月間需給報告が発表されると値を上げ、本日の高値を付けた。しかし、その後引けにかけてやや値を戻し、最終的に前日比73ポイント高の69.07/LBで引けた。推定出来高は56,400枚。
【相場動向要因】
期近12月限は2取引日続けての上昇となった。本日は70￠を超える勢いを見せたものの、そこから失速。強気基調への転換も予想される一方で更なる上方向への可能性がどこまであるか注目が集まる。
本日米国農務省月間需給報告が発表された。供給面で大きな修正が入ったことで、強材料となって発表直後、相場を押し上げた。米綿2024/2025 CROPの生産量が前月の1,700万俵から約190万俵下方修正され、1,511万俵と報告されている。事前の市場予想は1,575万 – 1,900万俵であった。米綿減産予想の背景には、作付面積が６月末の発表から50万エーカー減少し、また放棄率が6%上昇するとの予想が挙げられていることがある。
また2024/2025 CROPの米綿の輸出量も前回の報告から100万俵下方修正されている。
需要面も、中国を含めて修正が入っているが、米綿を中心とした供給面の修正の影響が大きく、世界全体の期末在庫は７月予想826万俵から776万俵に下方修正されている。
詳細は、本日発表された週間作付進捗報告と合わせて後述する。
技術的に、期近12月限で本日の高値圏を抵抗線とするシグナルが出ているとの見方があり、70￠台を維持して引けなかったことから、アナリストからは、そこまで強い展開を見せないのではないかと予想する声もある。
【米国農務省月間需給報告】
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Aug 12
Mon Aug 12 12:01:23 2024 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2024/25 (Projected)
World
Jul 79.31 120.19 44.59 117.19 44.59 -0.32 82.63
Aug 75.78 117.64 43.63 116.21 43.54 -0.31 77.61
World Less China
Jul 38.31 92.69 33.09 78.19 44.52 -0.32 41.70
Aug 38.15 90.14 33.63 78.21 43.47 -0.31 40.55
United States
Jul 3.05 17.00 0.01 1.90 13.00 -0.15 5.30
Aug 3.15 15.11 0.01 1.90 12.00 -0.14 4.50
Total foreign
Jul 76.26 103.19 44.59 115.29 31.59 -0.18 77.33
Aug 72.63 102.53 43.63 114.31 31.54 -0.18 73.11
Major exporters 4/
Jul 25.81 59.88 2.20 34.71 27.41 -0.18 25.95
Aug 25.64 59.22 2.70 34.68 27.33 -0.18 25.71
Central Asia 5/ Jul 3.38 5.19 0.03 4.08 1.40 0.00 3.12
Aug 3.38 5.19 0.03 4.08 1.40 0.00 3.12
Afr Fr Z 6/ Jul 1.33 5.12 3/ 0.10 4.90 0.00 1.45
Aug 1.28 4.92 3/ 0.10 4.78 0.00 1.32
S Hemis 7/ Jul 10.09 24.05 0.15 4.36 19.18 -0.18 10.92
Aug 10.08 24.05 0.15 4.36 19.18 -0.18 10.91
Australia Jul 4.15 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.40 -0.18 3.91
Aug 4.15 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.40 -0.18 3.91
Brazil Jul 3.19 16.70 0.01 3.30 12.50 0.00 4.10
Aug 3.17 16.70 0.01 3.30 12.50 0.00 4.08
India Jul 10.67 25.00 1.50 25.50 1.50 0.00 10.17
Aug 10.57 24.50 2.00 25.50 1.50 0.00 10.07
Major importers 8/
Jul 48.03 39.82 39.71 76.27 2.39 0.00 48.90
Aug 44.59 39.82 38.26 75.32 2.39 0.00 44.96
Mexico Jul 0.25 0.80 0.90 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.25
Aug 0.24 0.80 0.95 1.55 0.20 0.00 0.24
China Jul 41.01 27.50 11.50 39.00 0.08 0.00 40.93
Aug 37.63 27.50 10.00 38.00 0.08 0.00 37.06
European Union 9/ Jul 0.43 1.36 0.55 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.52
Aug 0.35 1.36 0.55 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.44
Turkey Jul 1.43 4.00 4.70 7.50 0.80 0.00 1.83
Aug 1.43 4.00 4.80 7.60 0.80 0.00 1.83
Pakistan Jul 1.63 6.00 3.90 9.50 0.05 0.00 1.98
Aug 1.65 6.00 4.00 9.60 0.05 0.00 2.00
Indonesia Jul 0.40 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.01 0.00 0.39
Aug 0.40 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.01 0.00 0.39
Thailand Jul 0.10 3/ 0.40 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.09
Aug 0.10 3/ 0.40 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.09
Bangladesh Jul 1.59 0.16 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 1.74
Aug 1.59 0.16 7.80 7.80 0.00 0.00 1.74
Vietnam Jul 1.05 3/ 7.10 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.05
Aug 1.05 3/ 7.10 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.05
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes
Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
Write to Taryn Boss at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Mon Aug 12 12:01:27 2024 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2023/24 (Estimated)
World 75.27 113.58 43.41 112.35 44.73 -0.61 75.78
World Less China 42.21 86.23 28.61 74.85 44.66 -0.61 38.15
United States 4.25 12.07 0.01 1.85 11.75 -0.43 3.15
Total Foreign 71.02 101.51 43.40 110.50 32.98 -0.18 72.63
Major exporters 4/ 27.23 58.70 1.53 33.76 28.24 -0.18 25.64
Central Asia 5/ 3.63 5.20 0.01 3.86 1.61 0.00 3.38
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 0.96 4.96 3/ 0.10 4.54 0.00 1.28
S Hemis 7/ 11.34 21.87 0.15 4.15 19.30 -0.18 10.08
Australia 4.78 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.80 -0.18 4.15
Brazil 4.01 14.57 0.01 3.10 12.31 0.00 3.17
India 10.82 26.20 0.88 25.00 2.33 0.00 10.57
Major importers 8/ 41.47 39.36 39.37 72.65 2.97 0.00 44.59
Mexico 0.38 0.90 0.70 1.50 0.23 0.00 0.24
China 33.06 27.35 14.80 37.50 0.08 0.00 37.63
European Union 9/ 0.39 1.05 0.50 0.53 1.06 0.00 0.35
Turkey 2.63 3.20 3.50 6.50 1.40 0.00 1.43
Pakistan 1.53 6.70 3.00 9.40 0.18 0.00 1.65
Indonesia 0.36 3/ 1.83 1.78 0.02 0.00 0.40
Thailand 0.14 3/ 0.42 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.10
Bangladesh 1.73 0.16 7.30 7.60 0.00 0.00 1.59
Vietnam 1.05 3/ 6.70 6.70 0.00 0.00 1.05
2022/23
World 70.16 116.46 37.65 112.64 37.09 -0.73 75.27
World Less China 36.29 85.71 31.42 74.94 37.00 -0.73 42.21
United States 4.05 14.47 3/ 2.05 12.77 -0.55 4.25
Total Foreign 66.11 102.00 37.65 110.59 24.33 -0.19 71.02
Major exporters 4/ 21.76 55.76 2.38 32.81 20.05 -0.20 27.23
Central Asia 5/ 2.73 5.54 0.01 3.53 1.12 0.00 3.63
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.01 4.02 3/ 0.10 3.98 0.00 0.96
S Hemis 7/ 9.19 19.32 0.14 4.12 13.39 -0.20 11.34
Australia 4.98 5.80 3/ 0.01 6.19 -0.20 4.78
Brazil 2.05 11.72 0.01 3.11 6.66 0.00 4.01
India 8.40 26.30 1.73 24.50 1.10 0.00 10.82
Major importers 8/ 42.47 42.93 32.86 73.77 3.01 0.02 41.47
Mexico 0.32 1.58 0.69 1.80 0.41 0.00 0.38
China 33.87 30.75 6.23 37.70 0.09 0.00 33.06
European Union 9/ 0.30 1.64 0.52 0.56 1.52 0.00 0.39
Turkey 1.92 4.90 4.19 7.50 0.86 0.02 2.63
Pakistan 1.93 3.90 4.50 8.70 0.10 0.00 1.53
Indonesia 0.46 3/ 1.66 1.75 0.02 0.00 0.36
Thailand 0.15 3/ 0.66 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bangladesh 2.28 0.15 7.00 7.70 0.00 0.00 1.73
Vietnam 1.02 3/ 6.47 6.45 0.00 0.00 1.05
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes
Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
Write to Taryn Boss at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Aug 12
Mon Aug 12 12:01:53 2024 EDT
Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2023 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2024
========================================================================
Type Area Harvested Yield Production 1/
and ==============================================================
State 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024
========================================================================
==1,000 Acres== === Pounds === == 1,000 Bales 2/ ==
Upland
AL 374.0 395.0 937 881 730.0 725.0
AZ 75.0 94.0 1,331 1,557 208.0 305.0
AR 505.0 640.0 1,295 1,238 1,362.0 1,650.0
CA 12.8 21.6 2,025 2,000 54.0 90.0
FL 87.0 84.0 612 657 111.0 115.0
GA 1,100.0 1,090.0 949 947 2,175.0 2,150.0
KS 94.0 120.0 761 760 149.0 190.0
LA 115.0 150.0 872 1,008 209.0 315.0
MS 395.0 515.0 1,083 1,118 891.0 1,200.0
MO 330.0 380.0 1,361 1,213 936.0 960.0
NM 17.0 27.0 649 889 23.0 50.0
NC 370.0 400.0 933 912 719.0 760.0
OK 180.0 315.0 560 655 210.0 430.0
SC 207.0 220.0 937 829 404.0 380.0
TN 260.0 250.0 1,250 1,056 677.0 550.0
TX 2,100.0 3,650.0 618 592 2,705.0 4,500.0
VA 80.0 90.0 1,122 987 187.0 185.0
U.S. 6,301.8 8,441.6 895 828 11,750.0 14,555.0
Amer Pima
AZ 16.0 14.0 900 891 30.0 26.0
CA 82.0 135.0 1,346 1,582 230.0 445.0
NM 16.8 14.0 800 754 28.0 22.0
TX 23.0 29.0 584 993 28.0 60.0
U.S. 137.8 192.0 1,101 1,383 316.0 553.0
All Cotton
AL 374.0 395.0 937 881 730.0 725.0
AZ 91.0 108.0 1,255 1,471 238.0 331.0
AR 505.0 640.0 1,295 1,238 1,362.0 1,650.0
CA 94.8 156.6 1,438 1,640 284.0 535.0
FL 87.0 84.0 612 657 111.0 115.0
GA 1,100.0 1,090.0 949 947 2,175.0 2,150.0
KS 94.0 120.0 761 760 149.0 190.0
LA 115.0 150.0 872 1,008 209.0 315.0
MS 395.0 515.0 1,083 1,118 891.0 1,200.0
MO 330.0 380.0 1,361 1,213 936.0 960.0
NM 33.8 41.0 724 843 51.0 72.0
NC 370.0 400.0 933 912 719.0 760.0
OK 180.0 315.0 560 655 210.0 430.0
SC 207.0 220.0 937 829 404.0 380.0
TN 260.0 250.0 1,250 1,056 677.0 550.0
TX 2,123.0 3,679.0 618 595 2,733.0 4,560.0
VA 80.0 90.0 1,122 987 187.0 185.0
U.S. 6,439.6 8,633.6 899 840 12,066.0 15,108.0
========================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bales.
Cottonseed: Production, United States,
2023-24 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2024
========================================================================
Production
=================================================================
2023 2024 1/
========================================================================
1,000 Tons
U.S. 3,644.0 4,605.0
========================================================================
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
Write to Valena Henderson at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Aug 12
Mon Aug 12 12:01:59 2024 EDT
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2023/2024 2024/2025
prev Aug 12 prev Aug 12
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.23 10.23 11.67 ** 11.17
Harvested 6.44 6.44 9.67 ** 8.63
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 899 899 844 ** 840
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.25 4.25 3.05 3.15
Production 12.07 12.07 17.00 15.11
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 16.32 16.32 20.06 18.27
Domestic use 1.85 1.85 1.90 1.90
Exports, total 11.60 11.75 13.00 12.00
Use, total 13.45 13.60 14.90 13.90
Unaccounted 2/ -0.18 -0.43 -0.15 -0.14
Ending stocks 3.05 3.15 5.30 4.50
Avg. farm price 3/ 76.00 76.00 68.00 66.00
==========================================================================
Note: 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton. **Planted area as reported in June 28, 2024 Acreage
report. Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region with
the Southwest adjusted to reflect moisture conditions. Yield based on 5-year
average yield by region.
Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
【米国農務省週間作付進捗報告】
Cotton Squaring - Selected States
[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2023 cotton acreage]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:-----------------------------------:
State :August 11, : August 4, :August 11, : 2019-2023
: 2023 : 2024 : 2024 : Average
-----------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Alabama .........: 97 96 98 98
Arizona .........: 100 100 100 100
Arkansas ........: 100 99 100 100
California ......: 96 95 100 97
Georgia .........: 97 95 97 98
Kansas ..........: 93 96 97 92
Louisiana .......: 99 93 98 100
Mississippi .....: 95 97 99 95
Missouri ........: 99 93 98 93
North Carolina ..: 96 98 99 96
Oklahoma ........: 94 95 100 95
South Carolina ..: 98 99 100 97
Tennessee .......: 95 97 99 97
Texas ...........: 94 87 95 93
Virginia ........: 99 98 100 98
:
15 States .......: 95 91 96 95
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton Setting Bolls - Selected States
[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2023 cotton acreage]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:-----------------------------------------:
State : August 11, : August 4, : August 11, : 2019-2023
: 2023 : 2024 : 2024 : Average
------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Alabama ........: 87 72 77 86
Arizona ........: 98 96 99 95
Arkansas .......: 92 91 93 96
California .....: 56 60 70 74
Georgia ........: 78 69 78 83
Kansas .........: 77 72 84 63
Louisiana ......: 88 75 82 94
Mississippi ....: 83 74 84 83
Missouri .......: 81 56 66 71
North Carolina .: 72 79 86 77
Oklahoma .......: 69 50 65 61
South Carolina .: 79 88 93 80
Tennessee ......: 80 74 86 80
Texas ..........: 61 51 69 67
Virginia .......: 80 81 89 83
:
15 States ......: 69 60 74 73
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton Bolls Opening - Selected States
[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2023 cotton acreage]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:-----------------------------------------:
State : August 11, : August 4, : August 11, : 2019-2023
: 2023 : 2024 : 2024 : Average
------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Alabama ........: 4 1 6 3
Arizona ........: 45 57 64 33
Arkansas .......: 5 13 28 6
California .....: - - - -
Georgia ........: 2 1 3 4
Kansas .........: 6 2 8 4
Louisiana ......: 17 4 15 22
Mississippi ....: 11 1 5 10
Missouri .......: - - - -
North Carolina .: 1 - 2 1
Oklahoma .......: - - - 1
South Carolina .: 2 1 3 1
Tennessee ......: 4 2 4 2
Texas ..........: 16 11 17 18
Virginia .......: 5 - 3 2
:
15 States ......: 12 8 13 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
Cotton Condition - Selected States: Week Ending August 11, 2024
[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2023 cotton acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Alabama ........: 1 9 28 59 3
Arizona ........: - 2 - 47 51
Arkansas .......: 1 5 18 50 26
California .....: - - - 95 5
Georgia ........: 1 9 29 53 8
Kansas .........: 1 9 39 42 9
Louisiana ......: - - 26 74 -
Mississippi ....: 2 7 34 52 5
Missouri .......: 5 9 31 55 -
North Carolina .: 1 11 21 66 1
Oklahoma .......: 1 3 35 59 2
South Carolina .: 2 12 38 46 2
Tennessee ......: 3 6 25 56 10
Texas ..........: 15 22 30 26 7
Virginia .......: - 7 23 68 2
:
15 States ......: 9 16 29 39 7
:
Previous week ..: 12 15 28 37 8
Previous year ..: 19 24 21 30 6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
End.
