ICE No. 2 Cotton
NOVEMBER 9,2023
Open High Low Settle Change
Dec '23 75.00 77.29 74.90 76.52 +163
Mar '24 78.05 79.89 77.70 79.21 +151
May '24 79.39 80.70 79.09 80.13 +104
July '24 80.28 81.20 80.21 80.83 +84
Oct '24 - - - 78.83 +84
Dec '24 76.76 77.49 76.10 76.92 +39
Mar '25 77.29 77.45 77.26 77.37 +14
May '25 77.45 77.45 77.42 77.42 -1
July '25 - - - 77.52 -16
Oct '25 - - - 76.52 -16
ICE estimated futures volume: 87,700
12月限は寄り付きからアジア時間を中心に堅調に推移し、米国で週間輸出成約報告が発表されると上値を試す展開となった。
一時高値の77.29/LBを付けるも月間需給報告の結果を受けて下げ戻した。
最終的には163ポイント高の76.52/LBで引けた。推定出来高は87,700枚。
【相場動向要因】
直近三日間引け値ベースで期近12月限は473ポイント、3月限は442ポイント下げており、一部の市場参加者は反発の機会を待ち望んでいたとみられる。
また12月限の第一回受渡通知日を意識した大手ファンド筋の乗換が始まっているなかで、8万枚を超える取引高が継続しており市場の流動性が高まっている。
投機筋の売り圧力のピークを過ぎたとの声もあるが、週間輸出報告を好感して相場反発に動いたとみられ、相場のありどころを示した格好となった。
現地時間明日は12月減のオプション期限が到来するため、市場関係者は動向を注目している。
【週間輸出成約報告】
中国向けの成約数量がハイライトされている。週間（11/2までの1週間）で約40万俵の米綿の成約が確認されており、うち6割の約26万俵が中国向けとのこと。中国は先週同様に国家備蓄用の原綿を買い付けている様子。
またその他仕向け地はベトナム向け（5万4千俵）、パキスタン向け（2万7千俵）と続いている。
週間船積数量は低調となっており、現時点での23/24 CROP 米綿の成約708万俵のうち船積されたのは3割となっている。
【月間需給報告】
報告内容はある程度織り込み済みで綿花相場への影響は限定的であった。
・米国綿花生産 27万俵上方修正
・米国の綿花国内使用は10万俵下方修正、期末在庫が40万俵上方修正
・世界綿花生産86万俵上方修正、世界綿花消費46万俵下方修正
それぞれの詳細は以下。
(2023-2024) (2024-2025)
=====current marketing year===== ====next year====
Week's net Week's Season's Season's Week's net Season's
Change in Export Export Total Change in Total
Commits Shipments Shipments Commits Commits Commits
==upland==
BANGLADESH 14.5 17.4 160.8 436.6 0 0
BELGIUM 0 0 0.4 0.4 0 0
BRAZIL 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0
CHINA 260.0 21.4 999.1 2489.5 0 0
COLOMBIA 0 0 0 7.5 0 0
COSTA RICA 0 0 7.2 61.6 0 0
DJIBOUTI AFARS-ISSAS 0 0 3.1 3.1 0 0
ECUADOR 0.5 0 11.7 21.1 0 0
EGYPT 0 0 3.3 3.4 0 0
EL SALVADOR 1.2 3.3 40.2 166.7 0 36.2
GERMANY 0 0 0 3.5 0 0
GUATEMALA 8.4 0 36.9 131.6 0 0
HONDURAS 0 0.9 35.0 148.1 0 11.0
INDIA 0 0 4.0 30.2 0 0
INDONESIA 1.7 3.4 37.5 184.7 0 0
ITALY 0 0 0 0.5 0 0
JAPAN 1.0 1.3 13.3 61.2 0.5 3.2
KOREA REPUBLIC 2.2 0 10.6 43.8 0 0
MACAU -0.1 0 0 20.8 0 0
MALAYSIA 0 0.4 4.9 74.0 0 88.0
MEXICO 14.1 11.6 181.2 638.0 0 96.6
NICARAGUA 0 0.2 9.0 21.5 0 0
PAKISTAN 27.2 9.7 193.9 1276.6 44.0 272.2
PERU 2.4 0 17.1 57.8 0 0
PHILIPPINES 0 0 0 10.1 0 0
PORTUGAL 0 0 3.1 34.2 0 0
SINGAPORE 0 0 0 4.4 0 0
SWITZERLAND 0 0 3.3 3.3 0 0
TAIWAN 2.8 0.9 17.8 33.7 0 0
THAILAND 0.9 0 21.8 66.5 0 11.4
TURKEY 3.9 1.3 71.2 496.2 0 26.4
VIETNAM 54.5 18.9 150.9 403.0 0 0
TOTAL KNOWN 395.2 90.6 2037.5 6933.5 44.5 545.0
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 395.2 90.6 2037.5 6933.5 44.5 545.0
==pima==
BRAZIL 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0
CHINA 13.1 0.2 8.6 50.8 0 0
COLOMBIA 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0 0
EGYPT 0 0 2.5 4.7 0 0
EL SALVADOR 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0
ETHIOPIA 0 0 0 1.6 0 0
GUATEMALA 0.1 0 0.3 0.6 0 0
HONDURAS 0 0 0.9 0.9 0 0
INDIA 3.8 2.7 23.2 42.9 0 0
INDONESIA 0.3 0 0.5 0.8 0 0
ITALY 0 0 0 3.6 0 1.5
JAPAN 0 0 0.8 1.6 0 0
KOREA REPUBLIC 0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0 0
MALAYSIA 0 0 0.2 0.2 0 0
PAKISTAN 1.5 0.9 3.2 8.9 0 0
PERU 0 0 0 1.8 0 0
THAILAND 0.9 0 3.4 8.1 0 0
TURKEY 0 0 0.1 1.8 0 0
UNITED ARAB 0.7 0 0 0.7 0 0
VIETNAM 0 0 8.4 18.6 0 0
TOTAL KNOWN 20.3 4.0 53.2 149.2 0 1.5
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 20.3 4.0 53.2 149.2 0 1.5
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2022/23 (Estimated)
World 76.39 116.65 37.24 110.92 37.03 -0.72 83.04
World Less China 38.32 85.95 31.01 73.42 36.94 -0.72 45.64
United States 4.05 14.47 3/ 2.05 12.77 -0.55 4.25
Total Foreign 72.34 102.18 37.24 108.87 24.27 -0.18 78.79
Major exporters 4/ 23.22 56.14 2.40 32.22 19.97 -0.19 29.76
Central Asia 5/ 2.43 5.63 0.03 3.84 1.13 0.00 3.12
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.14 4.02 3/ 0.10 3.90 0.00 1.17
S Hemis 7/ 10.93 19.64 0.14 4.21 13.40 -0.19 13.30
Australia 4.96 5.80 3/ 0.01 6.17 -0.19 4.77
Brazil 3.88 11.72 0.01 3.20 6.66 0.00 5.76
India 8.40 26.30 1.73 23.50 1.10 0.00 11.82
Major importers 8/ 46.72 42.88 32.41 72.92 3.01 0.02 46.07
Mexico 0.32 1.58 0.69 1.75 0.41 0.00 0.43
China 38.06 30.70 6.23 37.50 0.09 0.00 37.40
European Union 9/ 0.30 1.64 0.52 0.55 1.52 0.00 0.39
Turkey 1.92 4.90 4.19 7.50 0.86 0.02 2.63
Pakistan 1.93 3.90 4.50 8.70 0.10 0.00 1.53
Indonesia 0.46 3/ 1.66 1.75 0.02 0.00 0.36
Thailand 0.15 3/ 0.66 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bangladesh 2.33 0.15 6.55 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.93
Vietnam 1.02 3/ 6.47 6.45 0.00 0.00 1.05
2021/22
World 77.65 114.55 42.71 115.93 43.20 -0.60 76.39
World Less China 40.36 87.75 34.87 82.18 43.08 -0.60 38.32
United States 3.15 17.52 0.01 2.55 14.48 -0.40 4.05
Total Foreign 74.50 97.03 42.71 113.38 28.71 -0.20 72.34
Major exporters 4/ 25.69 54.41 1.70 34.32 24.46 -0.20 23.22
Central Asia 5/ 3.03 5.09 0.06 4.28 1.47 0.00 2.43
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.68 5.98 3/ 0.10 6.43 -0.01 1.14
S Hemis 7/ 8.77 18.63 0.19 4.38 12.47 -0.19 10.93
Australia 2.51 5.85 3/ 0.01 3.58 -0.19 4.96
Brazil 4.07 10.82 0.02 3.30 7.73 0.00 3.88
India 11.84 24.30 1.00 25.00 3.74 0.00 8.40
Major importers 8/ 46.49 39.65 38.69 75.17 2.94 0.00 46.72
Mexico 0.44 1.22 0.96 1.90 0.40 0.00 0.32
China 37.29 26.80 7.84 33.75 0.12 0.00 38.06
European Union 9/ 0.37 1.67 0.64 0.62 1.77 0.00 0.30
Turkey 1.76 3.80 5.52 8.60 0.57 0.00 1.92
Pakistan 2.18 6.00 4.50 10.70 0.05 0.00 1.93
Indonesia 0.50 3/ 2.58 2.60 0.01 0.00 0.46
Thailand 0.13 3/ 0.75 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.15
Bangladesh 2.48 0.15 8.20 8.50 0.00 0.00 2.33
Vietnam 1.09 3/ 6.63 6.70 0.00 0.00 1.02
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia,
Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina
Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali,
Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South
Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2023/24 (Projected)
World
Oct 82.84 112.60 43.23 115.79 43.24 -0.28 79.92
Nov 83.04 113.46 43.30 115.30 43.31 -0.31 81.50
World Less China
Oct 45.43 85.60 33.23 78.29 43.14 -0.28 43.12
Nov 45.64 86.46 32.80 77.80 43.21 -0.31 44.20
United States
Oct 4.25 12.82 0.01 2.15 12.20 -0.08 2.80
Nov 4.25 13.09 0.01 2.05 12.20 -0.11 3.20
Total foreign
Oct 78.59 99.79 43.22 113.64 31.04 -0.20 77.12
Nov 78.79 100.37 43.30 113.25 31.11 -0.20 78.30
Major exporters 4/
Oct 29.62 57.32 2.04 33.22 27.30 -0.20 28.67
Nov 29.76 57.54 2.04 33.30 27.00 -0.20 29.26
Central Asia 5/ Oct 3.11 5.19 0.10 4.19 1.38 0.00 2.83
Nov 3.12 5.19 0.10 4.19 1.38 0.00 2.85
Afr Fr Z 6/ Oct 1.16 4.92 3/ 0.10 4.73 0.00 1.25
Nov 1.17 4.92 3/ 0.10 4.61 0.00 1.38
S Hemis 7/ Oct 13.30 21.74 0.17 4.36 18.79 -0.20 12.25
Nov 13.30 21.96 0.17 4.36 18.89 -0.20 12.37
Australia Oct 4.78 5.10 3/ 0.01 5.70 -0.20 4.37
Nov 4.77 5.10 3/ 0.01 5.70 -0.20 4.36
Brazil Oct 5.76 14.56 0.02 3.30 11.80 0.00 5.24
Nov 5.76 14.56 0.02 3.30 11.80 0.00 5.24
India Oct 11.72 25.00 1.30 24.00 2.00 0.00 12.02
Nov 11.82 25.00 1.30 24.00 1.80 0.00 12.32
Major importers 8/
Oct 46.07 39.39 38.72 76.43 2.20 0.00 45.55
Nov 46.07 39.26 38.79 75.95 2.30 0.00 45.88
Mexico Oct 0.43 1.10 0.85 1.75 0.30 0.00 0.33
Nov 0.43 1.05 0.85 1.70 0.30 0.00 0.33
China Oct 37.40 27.00 10.00 37.50 0.10 0.00 36.80
Nov 37.40 27.00 10.50 37.50 0.10 0.00 37.30
European Union 9/ Oct 0.39 1.13 0.59 0.61 1.20 0.00 0.29
Nov 0.39 1.05 0.59 0.61 1.15 0.00 0.27
Turkey Oct 2.63 3.50 4.40 8.00 0.50 0.00 2.03
Nov 2.63 3.50 4.30 7.90 0.65 0.00 1.88
Pakistan Oct 1.53 6.50 4.20 10.00 0.08 0.00 2.15
Nov 1.53 6.50 4.20 10.00 0.08 0.00 2.15
Indonesia Oct 0.36 3/ 2.30 2.20 0.01 0.00 0.46
Nov 0.36 3/ 2.30 2.20 0.01 0.00 0.46
Thailand Oct 0.14 3/ 0.73 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.14
Nov 0.14 3/ 0.68 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bangladesh Oct 1.93 0.16 7.70 7.70 0.00 0.00 2.09
Nov 1.93 0.16 7.70 7.70 0.00 0.00 2.09
Vietnam Oct 1.05 3/ 6.90 6.90 0.00 0.00 1.05
Nov 1.05 3/ 6.70 6.70 0.00 0.00 1.05
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia,
Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina
Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali,
Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South
Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2022/2023 2023/2024
prev Nov 9 prev Nov 9
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 13.76 13.76 10.23 10.23
Harvested 7.31 7.31 8.02 8.02
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 950 950 767 783
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.05 4.05 4.25 4.25
Production 14.47 14.47 12.82 13.09
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 18.52 18.52 17.07 17.35
Domestic use 2.05 2.05 2.15 2.05
Exports, total 12.77 12.77 12.20 12.20
Use, total 14.82 14.82 14.35 14.25
Unaccounted 2/ -0.55 -0.55 -0.08 -0.11
Ending stocks 4.25 4.25 2.80 3.20
Avg. farm price 3/ 84.80 84.80 80.00 77.00
==========================================================================
Note: 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton.
END
