July 11, 2025
Open High Low Settle Change
Oct '25 66.57 66.57 66.05 66.20 -5
Dec '25 67.55 67.94 67.25 67.42 -31
Mar '26 69.01 69.24 68.56 68.75 -31
May '26 70.14 70.29 69.64 69.80 -32
July '26 70.98 71.08 70.43 70.59 -34
Oct '26 - - - 69.66 -24
Dec '26 69.59 69.60 69.11 69.28 -22
Mar '27 - - - 69.89 -16
May '27 - - - 70.43 -15
July '27 - - - 70.75 -15
ICE estimated futures volume: 25,700
期近12月限は、寄り付きから小幅に推移し、米国時間の早朝にかけて弱気の展開。
最終的に、前日比31ポイント安の67.42/LBで引けた。推定出来高は25,700枚。
【相場要因】
7月度の需給報告が発表された。詳細後述。
米綿 25/26 CROP の生産量について上方修正がされたが、相場への与える影響は限定的だった様子。
トランプ大統領は違法薬物の流入が継続していることを理由に、カナダに対して35%の関税を課すことを発表した。
さらに、前日にはブラジルに対して過去最高水準の関税を課すことが発表されていた。
市場ではマクロ経済的な先行き不透明感から、投機筋によるリスクオフの動きが一部でみられたとのこと。
その他のコーン、大豆や小麦などの穀物相場も下げており綿花相場の弱気な展開を後押ししたと一部でみられている。
【月間需給報告】
米綿2025/26 CROPの生産量は60万俵上方修正され1,460万俵、輸出量は1,250万俵 の据え置き、期末在庫は30万俵上方修正され460万俵 。
その他の主な修正は以下の通り。
・世界の生産量が、143万俵上方修正され1,118.42万俵。
・世界の消費量が、113万俵上方修正され1,118.12万俵。
・中国の生産量が、100万俵上方修正され3,100万俵。
・中国の輸入量が、70万俵下方修正され580万俵。
・パキスタンの生産量が、20万俵下方修正され500万俵。
・パキスタンの国内消費量が、30万俵の上方修正がされ1,090万俵。
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Jul 11
Fri Jul 11 12:03:09 2025 EDT
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2024/2025 2025/2026
prev Jul 11 prev Jul 11
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 11.18 11.18 9.87 * 10.12 **
Harvested 7.81 7.81 8.19 * 8.66 **
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 886 886 820 * 809 **
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 3.15 3.15 4.40 4.10
Production 14.41 14.41 14.00 14.60
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 17.57 17.57 18.41 18.71
Domestic use 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
Exports, total 11.50 11.80 12.50 12.50
Use, total 13.20 13.50 14.20 14.20
Unaccounted 2/ -0.03 -0.03 -0.10 -0.10
Ending stocks 4.40 4.10 4.30 4.60
Avg. farm price 3/ 63.00 63.00 62.00 62.00
==========================================================================
Note: 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton. *Planted area as reported in March 31, 2025 Prospective
Plantings. Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region,
with the Southwest and Delta adjusted to reflect moisture conditions. Yield
based on 5-year average yields by region, with the Delta adjusted to reflect
delayed planting. **Planted area as reported in June 30, 2025 Acreage.
Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region, with the
Southwest, Delta and Southeast adjusted to reflect moisture conditions. Yield
based on 5-year average yields by region, with additional reductions for the
Delta and Southwest.
Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 11, 2025 12:03 ET (16:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Jul 11
Fri Jul 11 12:04:08 2025 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2025/26 (Projected)
World
Jun 77.29 116.99 44.82 117.76 44.79 -0.25 76.80
Jul 76.78 118.42 44.68 118.12 44.69 -0.25 77.32
World Less China
Jun 40.17 86.99 38.32 81.26 44.69 -0.25 39.78
Jul 39.94 87.42 38.88 81.62 44.61 -0.25 40.25
United States
Jun 4.40 14.00 0.01 1.70 12.50 -0.10 4.30
Jul 4.10 14.60 0.01 1.70 12.50 -0.10 4.60
Total foreign
Jun 72.89 102.99 44.81 116.06 32.29 -0.15 72.50
Jul 72.68 103.82 44.68 116.42 32.19 -0.15 72.72
Major exporters 4/
Jun 26.12 58.72 4.45 35.52 28.23 -0.15 25.68
Jul 26.17 58.65 4.45 35.52 28.18 -0.15 25.71
Central Asia 5/ Jun 2.87 5.10 0.20 4.08 1.44 0.00 2.65
Jul 2.87 5.10 0.20 4.08 1.44 0.00 2.65
Afr Fr Z 6/ Jun 1.41 4.83 3/ 0.11 4.83 0.00 1.31
Jul 1.41 4.83 3/ 0.11 4.83 0.00 1.31
S Hemis 7/ Jun 11.72 24.81 0.15 4.56 20.61 -0.15 11.65
Jul 11.72 24.81 0.15 4.56 20.61 -0.15 11.65
Australia Jun 4.93 4.10 3/ 0.00 5.00 -0.15 4.18
Jul 4.93 4.10 3/ 0.00 5.00 -0.15 4.18
Brazil Jun 3.82 18.25 0.01 3.50 14.30 0.00 4.27
Jul 3.82 18.25 0.01 3.50 14.30 0.00 4.27
India Jun 9.70 23.50 3.00 25.50 1.00 0.00 9.70
Jul 9.75 23.50 3.00 25.50 1.00 0.00 9.75
Major importers 8/
Jun 44.39 40.94 37.23 75.72 2.52 0.00 44.32
Jul 44.13 41.84 37.09 76.08 2.47 0.00 44.51
Mexico Jun 0.22 0.70 0.60 1.25 0.10 0.00 0.17
Jul 0.24 0.80 0.60 1.35 0.10 0.00 0.19
China Jun 37.12 30.00 6.50 36.50 0.10 0.00 37.02
Jul 36.84 31.00 5.80 36.50 0.08 0.00 37.07
European Union 9/ Jun 0.29 1.28 0.51 0.55 1.24 0.00 0.28
Jul 0.23 1.28 0.47 0.51 1.22 0.00 0.25
Turkey Jun 1.35 3.60 4.80 7.30 1.00 0.00 1.45
Jul 1.30 3.60 4.80 7.30 1.00 0.00 1.40
Pakistan Jun 2.00 5.20 5.30 10.60 0.05 0.00 1.85
Jul 2.10 5.00 5.90 10.90 0.05 0.00 2.05
Indonesia Jun 0.38 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.00 0.37
Jul 0.38 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.00 0.37
Thailand Jun 0.09 3/ 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.09
Jul 0.09 3/ 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.09
Bangladesh Jun 1.76 0.15 8.40 8.40 0.00 0.00 1.92
Jul 1.76 0.15 8.40 8.40 0.00 0.00 1.92
Vietnam Jun 1.04 3/ 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 1.04
Jul 1.04 3/ 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 1.04
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes
Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 11, 2025 12:04 ET (16:04 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Fri Jul 11 12:04:11 2025 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2024/25 (Estimated)
World 73.74 119.90 42.61 116.70 42.99 -0.22 76.78
World Less China 37.02 87.90 37.41 79.70 42.92 -0.22 39.94
United States 3.15 14.41 0.01 1.70 11.80 -0.03 4.10
Total Foreign 70.59 105.49 42.61 115.00 31.19 -0.19 72.68
Major exporters 4/ 24.40 58.86 4.09 34.64 26.74 -0.19 26.17
Central Asia 5/ 3.18 5.09 0.10 4.06 1.44 0.00 2.87
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.30 4.61 3/ 0.10 4.40 0.00 1.41
S Hemis 7/ 10.27 24.57 0.14 4.35 19.11 -0.19 11.72
Australia 4.24 5.60 3/ 0.00 5.10 -0.19 4.93
Brazil 3.11 17.00 0.01 3.30 13.00 0.00 3.82
India 9.30 24.00 2.85 25.00 1.40 0.00 9.75
Major importers 8/ 43.86 43.25 35.64 75.75 2.88 0.00 44.13
Mexico 0.24 0.90 0.65 1.40 0.15 0.00 0.24
China 36.72 32.00 5.20 37.00 0.08 0.00 36.84
European Union 9/ 0.26 1.24 0.45 0.50 1.23 0.00 0.23
Turkey 1.40 3.95 4.30 7.00 1.35 0.00 1.30
Pakistan 1.85 5.00 6.10 10.80 0.05 0.00 2.10
Indonesia 0.40 3/ 1.85 1.85 0.02 0.00 0.38
Thailand 0.09 3/ 0.48 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.09
Bangladesh 1.71 0.15 8.20 8.30 0.00 0.00 1.76
Vietnam 1.03 3/ 7.80 7.80 0.00 0.00 1.04
2023/24
World 75.90 112.96 44.05 114.80 44.59 -0.21 73.74
World Less China 42.55 85.61 29.08 75.90 44.53 -0.21 37.02
United States 4.65 12.07 3/ 1.85 11.75 -0.03 3.15
Total Foreign 71.25 100.90 44.05 112.95 32.84 -0.18 70.59
Major exporters 4/ 27.28 57.95 1.63 34.36 28.27 -0.18 24.40
Central Asia 5/ 3.66 5.02 0.05 3.89 1.66 0.00 3.18
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 0.96 5.02 3/ 0.10 4.59 0.00 1.30
S Hemis 7/ 11.37 22.03 0.15 4.21 19.25 -0.18 10.27
Australia 4.81 5.00 3/ 0.00 5.74 -0.18 4.24
Brazil 4.01 14.57 0.01 3.16 12.31 0.00 3.11
India 10.82 25.40 0.89 25.50 2.31 0.00 9.30
Major importers 8/ 41.77 39.61 39.96 74.49 2.99 0.00 43.86
Mexico 0.38 0.87 0.70 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.24
China 33.36 27.35 14.98 38.90 0.06 0.00 36.72
European Union 9/ 0.39 1.04 0.47 0.51 1.13 0.00 0.26
Turkey 2.63 3.19 3.57 6.60 1.39 0.00 1.40
Pakistan 1.53 7.00 3.20 9.70 0.18 0.00 1.85
Indonesia 0.36 3/ 1.85 1.80 0.01 0.00 0.40
Thailand 0.14 3/ 0.40 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.09
Bangladesh 1.73 0.16 7.58 7.75 0.00 0.00 1.71
Vietnam 1.05 3/ 6.59 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.03
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes
Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
Write to Rodney Christian at [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 11, 2025 12:04 ET (16:04 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
