ICE COTTON FUTURES
August 12, 2019
Open High Low Close Change
Oct 19 59.82 58.92 57.76 58.03 -1.02
Dec 19 58.90 59.05 57.55 58.14 -.76
Mar 20 59.86 59.98 58.55 58.90 -.96
May 20 61.29 61.29 59.90 60.15 -.90
Jul 20 62.30 62.33 61.24 61.49 -.84
Oct 20 - - - 62.09 -.74
Dec 20 63.26 63.26 62.40 62.62 -.63
Mar 21 64.14 64.14 63.75 63.92 -.62
May 21 65.27 65.27 65.09 65.22 -.62
Jul 21 66.58 66.58 66.45 66.47 -.68
ICE estimated futures volume:23,700
NY定期12月限は、寄付きから徐々に値を下げていき、米国農務省月間需給報告が発表される直前に本日の安値を付けた。その後やや値を戻し、最終的に前日比76ポイント安の58.14/LBで引けた。出来高は、23,700枚。
本日発表された米国農務省月間需給報告によると、2019/2020CROPの米棉の生産量は、前回の発表から、約50万俵上方修正され、2,250万俵、また、2018/2019CROPの輸出量が前回発表から下方修正されたこともあり、2019/2020CROPの期初在庫が約25万俵上方修正されている。その結果、2019/2020CROPの米棉の期末在庫も約50万俵上方修正されている。
一方で、世界全体で見ると、2019/2020CROPの原綿消費量は、前回から120万俵下方修正された。特に、インド、中国の消費量がそれぞれ50万俵ずつ下方修正されている。
また、豪州棉の生産量は、前回発表から据え置きの190万俵と報告されている。一方で、豪州綿の期末在庫は、約20万俵下方修正され、約160万俵と報告されている。。
ブラジル棉の生産量も前回から据え置きで1,200万俵と報告されており、期末在庫が約20万俵上方修正されている。
詳細は後述の通り。
また、本日米国農務省より週間作況報告が発表されている。一部では、西テキサスなどの地域で乾燥を懸念する声も出ている様子。
米国現地8月15日には米国農務省週間輸出成約報告が発表される予定。
米国農務省月間需給報告の詳細は以下の通り；
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Aug 12
Mon Aug 12 12:02:59 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2019/20 (Projected)
World
Jul 79.27 125.79 44.12 124.27 44.15 0.34 80.42
Aug 80.27 125.61 43.90 123.07 43.85 0.40 82.45
World Less China
Jul 43.91 98.04 33.62 83.77 44.03 0.34 47.43
Aug 44.68 97.86 33.40 83.07 43.73 0.40 48.74
United States
Jul 5.00 22.00 0.01 3.10 17.00 0.21 6.70
Aug 5.25 22.52 0.01 3.10 17.20 0.27 7.20
Total foreign
Jul 74.27 103.79 44.11 121.17 27.15 0.13 73.72
Aug 75.02 103.09 43.90 119.97 26.65 0.13 75.25
Major exporters 4/
Jul 27.79 57.22 2.14 35.11 23.01 0.02 29.00
Aug 28.36 56.65 2.11 34.41 22.61 0.02 30.07
Central Asia 5/ Jul 2.49 5.76 3/ 4.09 1.79 0.00 2.37
Aug 2.52 5.26 3/ 3.99 1.51 0.00 2.29
Afr Fr Z 6/ Jul 1.59 6.01 3/ 0.14 5.61 0.00 1.85
Aug 1.40 5.98 3/ 0.14 5.64 0.00 1.60
S Hemis 7/ Jul 15.07 15.97 0.21 4.67 10.97 0.01 15.60
Aug 15.08 15.92 0.21 4.62 10.97 0.01 15.61
Australia Jul 1.80 1.90 3/ 0.04 1.80 0.00 1.87
Aug 1.60 1.90 3/ 0.04 1.80 0.00 1.67
Brazil Jul 11.81 12.00 0.08 3.60 8.00 0.00 12.28
Aug 11.99 12.00 0.08 3.60 8.00 0.00 12.47
India Jul 8.43 29.00 1.40 25.50 4.40 0.00 8.93
Aug 9.13 29.00 1.40 25.00 4.20 0.00 10.33
Major importers 8/
Jul 44.67 43.52 39.41 81.79 2.90 0.11 42.79
Aug 44.86 43.40 39.22 81.29 2.79 0.11 43.29
Mexico Jul 0.72 1.75 0.85 2.00 0.55 0.03 0.75
Aug 0.72 1.70 0.85 2.00 0.55 0.03 0.70
China Jul 35.37 27.75 10.50 40.50 0.13 0.00 32.99
Aug 35.59 27.75 10.50 40.00 0.13 0.00 33.71
EU-27 9/ Jul 0.26 1.78 0.67 0.73 1.69 0.03 0.26
Aug 0.25 1.71 0.68 0.73 1.63 0.03 0.25
Turkey Jul 1.58 4.10 3.00 6.70 0.38 0.00 1.60
Aug 1.68 4.10 3.00 6.70 0.38 0.00 1.70
Pakistan Jul 2.73 8.00 3.00 10.70 0.15 0.03 2.86
Aug 2.63 8.00 2.80 10.70 0.10 0.03 2.61
Indonesia Jul 0.51 3/ 3.30 3.20 0.01 0.00 0.61
Aug 0.51 3/ 3.30 3.20 0.01 0.00 0.61
Thailand Jul 0.20 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.21
Aug 0.19 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.19
Bangladesh Jul 1.78 0.14 7.30 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.81
Aug 1.78 0.14 7.30 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.81
Vietnam Jul 1.14 3/ 7.80 7.60 0.00 0.00 1.34
Aug 1.14 3/ 7.80 7.60 0.00 0.00 1.34
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Mon Aug 12 12:03:06 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2018/19 (Estimated)
World 81.03 119.19 41.83 120.61 40.83 0.34 80.27
World Less China 43.01 91.44 32.33 81.11 40.65 0.34 44.68
United States 4.30 18.37 0.01 3.00 14.22 0.21 5.25
Total Foreign 76.73 100.83 41.82 117.61 26.61 0.14 75.02
Major exporters 4/ 27.00 55.29 2.14 33.65 22.40 0.02 28.36
Central Asia 5/ 2.77 5.44 3/ 3.83 1.87 0.00 2.52
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.70 5.34 3/ 0.14 5.50 0.00 1.40
S Hemis 7/ 13.07 17.37 0.19 4.54 11.00 0.01 15.08
Australia 3.04 2.40 3/ 0.04 3.80 0.00 1.60
Brazil 8.66 12.80 0.05 3.50 6.01 0.00 11.99
India 9.23 26.50 1.50 24.50 3.60 0.00 9.13
Major importers 8/ 47.88 42.60 37.18 79.77 2.92 0.11 44.86
Mexico 0.66 1.69 0.85 1.95 0.50 0.03 0.72
China 38.02 27.75 9.50 39.50 0.18 0.00 35.59
EU-27 9/ 0.28 1.72 0.69 0.75 1.66 0.03 0.25
Turkey 1.78 3.70 3.40 6.70 0.50 0.00 1.68
Pakistan 2.83 7.60 2.90 10.60 0.08 0.03 2.63
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.00 3.10 0.01 0.00 0.51
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.12 1.11 0.00 0.03 0.19
Bangladesh 1.86 0.14 6.90 7.10 0.00 0.01 1.78
Vietnam 1.24 3/ 7.00 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.14
2017/18
World 80.31 123.78 41.02 122.68 40.95 0.45 81.03
World Less China 34.39 96.28 35.29 81.68 40.83 0.45 43.01
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 15.85 0.30 4.30
Total Foreign 77.56 102.86 41.02 119.45 25.11 0.15 76.73
Major exporters 4/ 21.94 57.10 2.46 32.75 21.73 0.02 27.00
Central Asia 5/ 2.18 6.50 3/ 3.38 2.53 0.00 2.77
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.46 5.44 3/ 0.14 5.06 0.00 1.70
S Hemis 7/ 10.21 15.70 0.24 4.44 8.63 0.01 13.07
Australia 2.19 4.80 3/ 0.04 3.92 0.00 3.04
Brazil 6.93 9.22 0.08 3.40 4.17 0.00 8.66
India 7.88 29.00 1.68 24.15 5.18 0.00 9.23
Major importers 8/ 54.17 42.93 35.91 82.66 2.34 0.12 47.88
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.66
China 45.92 27.50 5.73 41.00 0.13 0.00 38.02
EU-27 9/ 0.18 1.53 0.73 0.76 1.37 0.04 0.28
Turkey 1.53 4.00 4.02 7.45 0.33 0.00 1.78
Pakistan 2.32 8.20 3.30 10.80 0.16 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.15 1.13 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 6.95 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.24
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Aug 12
Mon Aug 12 12:02:50 2019 EDT
Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2018 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2019
========================================================================
Type Area Harvested Yield Production 1/
and ==============================================================
State 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019
========================================================================
==1,000 Acres== === Pounds === == 1,000 Bales 2/ ==
Upland
AL 497.0 535.0 858 942 888.0 1,050.0
AZ 159.0 154.0 1,319 1,527 437.0 490.0
AR 480.0 610.0 1,133 1,157 1,133.0 1,470.0
CA 47.0 39.0 1,910 1,895 187.0 154.0
FL 93.0 118.0 532 915 103.0 225.0
GA 1,305.0 1,390.0 719 932 1,955.0 2,700.0
KS 152.0 170.0 1,077 952 341.0 337.0
LA 189.0 270.0 1,067 978 420.0 550.0
MS 615.0 710.0 1,141 1,115 1,462.0 1,650.0
MO 322.0 368.0 1,373 1,239 921.0 950.0
NM 56.0 45.0 977 1,067 114.0 100.0
NC 415.0 495.0 812 912 702.0 940.0
OK 550.0 575.0 595 835 682.0 1,000.0
SC 275.0 295.0 733 895 420.0 550.0
TN 355.0 400.0 1,041 1,128 770.0 940.0
TX 4,350.0 6,100.0 756 661 6,850.0 8,400.0
VA 97.0 104.0 896 1,015 181.0 220.0
U.S. 9,957.0 12,378.0 847 843 17,566.0 21,726.0
Amer Pima
AZ 14.5 9.0 943 1,013 28.5 19.0
CA 210.0 229.0 1,662 1,530 727.0 730.0
NM 6.8 6.9 812 835 11.5 12.0
TX 17.5 14.5 933 960 34.0 29.0
U.S. 248.8 259.4 1,545 1,462 801.0 790.0
All Cotton
AL 497.0 535.0 858 942 888.0 1,050.0
AZ 173.5 163.0 1,288 1,499 465.5 509.0
AR 480.0 610.0 1,133 1,157 1,133.0 1,470.0
CA 257.0 268.0 1,707 1,583 914.0 884.0
FL 93.0 118.0 532 915 103.0 225.0
GA 1,305.0 1,390.0 719 932 1,955.0 2,700.0
KS 152.0 170.0 1,077 952 341.0 337.0
LA 189.0 270.0 1,067 978 420.0 550.0
MS 615.0 710.0 1,141 1,115 1,462.0 1,650.0
MO 322.0 368.0 1,373 1,239 921.0 950.0
NM 62.8 51.9 959 1,036 125.5 112.0
NC 415.0 495.0 812 912 702.0 940.0
OK 550.0 575.0 595 835 682.0 1,000.0
SC 275.0 295.0 733 895 420.0 550.0
TN 355.0 400.0 1,041 1,128 770.0 940.0
TX 4,367.5 6,114.5 757 662 6,884.0 8,429.0
VA 97.0 104.0 896 1,015 181.0 220.0
U.S. 10,205.8 12,637.4 864 855 18,367.0 22,516.0
========================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bales.
Cottonseed: Production, United States,
2018-19 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2019
========================================================================
Production
=================================================================
2018 2019 1/
========================================================================
1,000 Tons
U.S. 5,631.0 6,969.0
========================================================================
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
米国農務省週間作況報告の詳細は以下の通り；
Cotton Setting Bolls - Selected States
[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2018 cotton acreage]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:-----------------------------------------:
State : August 11, : August 4, : August 11, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Alabama ........: 87 78 87 88
Arizona ........: 91 82 90 89
Arkansas .......: 100 91 96 99
California .....: 55 70 85 78
Georgia ........: 83 79 88 88
Kansas .........: 51 26 38 39
Louisiana ......: 100 91 97 97
Mississippi ....: 95 68 82 88
Missouri .......: 100 48 55 75
North Carolina .: 77 83 91 84
Oklahoma .......: 67 40 69 62
South Carolina .: 73 63 86 84
Tennessee ......: 92 65 80 85
Texas ..........: 68 50 72 69
Virginia .......: 73 62 78 80
:
15 States ......: 75 59 77 76
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton Bolls Opening - Selected States
[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2018 cotton acreage]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:-----------------------------------------:
State : August 11, : August 4, : August 11, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Alabama ........: 9 (NA) 2 4
Arizona ........: 25 11 23 28
Arkansas .......: 6 - 3 6
California .....: - (NA) - 3
Georgia ........: 3 2 9 3
Kansas .........: 1 - 1 1
Louisiana ......: 27 13 18 19
Mississippi ....: 12 1 3 8
Missouri .......: 23 (NA) - 5
North Carolina .: 1 - 1 3
Oklahoma .......: 3 (NA) - 1
South Carolina .: 1 (NA) 1 1
Tennessee ......: 7 - 3 4
Texas ..........: 17 14 31 13
Virginia .......: 1 (NA) - 1
:
15 States ......: 12 (NA) 20 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
(NA) Not available.
Cotton Condition - Selected States: Week Ending August 11, 2019
[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2018 cotton acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Alabama ........: - 8 34 46 12
Arizona ........: - 5 16 61 18
Arkansas .......: - 3 14 46 37
California .....: - - 65 25 10
Georgia ........: 2 9 32 51 6
Kansas .........: 5 18 40 34 3
Louisiana ......: - 3 25 63 9
Mississippi ....: 1 5 39 47 8
Missouri .......: 7 8 55 30 -
North Carolina .: 4 10 27 48 11
Oklahoma .......: - 8 40 48 4
South Carolina .: - 6 34 52 8
Tennessee ......: - 3 17 63 17
Texas ..........: 1 11 36 44 8
Virginia .......: - 1 11 83 5
:
15 States ......: 1 9 34 47 9
:
Previous week ..: 1 12 33 44 10
Previous year ..: 14 20 26 32 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
END.
