ICE No. 2 Cotton
January 12, 2026
Open High Low Settle Change
Mar '26 64.47 65.25 64.47 64.91 +50
May '26 66.05 66.73 65.99 66.44 +53
Jul '26 67.42 68.08 67.40 67.86 +55
Oct '26 - - - 68.43 +59
Dec '26 68.92 69.40 68.92 69.27 +44
Mar '27 69.78 70.03 69.78 69.96 +24
May '27 70.22 70.37 70.22 70.34 +12
Jul '27 70.45 70.55 70.45 70.50 +4
Oct '27 - - - 69.75 +14
Dec '27 68.30 68.30 68.30 68.30 -1
ICE estimated futures volume: 66,300
3月限は、寄り付きから堅調な値動きを見せ、米国時間早朝になるとさらに値を上げた。引けにかけては65セント周辺の抵抗圧力を受け、値を戻した。最終的に前日比50ポイント高の64.91/LBで引けた。推定出来高は66,300枚。
【相場要因】
本日米国農務省により12月度需給報告が発表されたが、綿花相場に与える影響は限定的であった。
商品相場は、FRBとトランプ大統領の緊張の高まりを示唆するニュースを受けて投機筋がポジションを買い増したことで、米国取引時間前半は全般的に上昇している。その他穀物相場も同様の動きを見せたが、需給報告にて生産量予想を大幅に上方修正したことで売り圧力が優勢となり、マイナス圏での引けとなっている。
需給報告では米国綿花のイールドが下方修正された一方で収穫面積予想は上方修正が入るも、生産量予想は下方修正された。
州別の生産量予想の増減について、生産量に対する修正割合に疑問を持つアナリストもおり、翌月の需給報告に注目している。
【米国農務省需給報告】
前回からの主な修正は以下の通り。
[世界]
・期初在庫：7,376万俵（-85万俵）
・生産量：1億1943万俵（-36万俵）
・消費量：1億1,892万俵（+31万俵）
・期末在庫：7,448万俵（-149万俵）
[米国]
・生産量：1,392万俵（-35万俵）
・期末在庫：420万俵 （-30万俵）
[インド]
・期初在庫：922万俵（-80万俵）
・生産量：2,350万俵（-50万俵）
・輸入量：300万俵（+20万俵）
・期末在庫：932万俵（-120万俵）
[中国]
・生産量：3,450万俵（+100万俵）
・期末在庫：3,566万俵（+50万俵）
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Jan 12
Mon Jan 12 12:01:57 2026 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
==============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
==============================================================================
2025/26 (Projected)
World
Dec 74.61 119.79 43.73 118.61 43.74 -0.19 75.97
Jan 73.76 119.43 43.76 118.92 43.77 -0.22 74.48
World Less China
Dec 39.78 86.29 38.33 80.11 43.67 -0.19 40.81
Jan 38.93 84.93 38.36 79.92 43.70 -0.22 38.82
United States
Dec 4.00 14.27 0.01 1.60 12.20 -0.03 4.50
Jan 4.00 13.92 0.01 1.60 12.20 -0.08 4.20
Total foreign
Dec 70.61 105.52 43.73 117.01 31.54 -0.16 71.47
Jan 69.76 105.52 43.75 117.32 31.57 -0.14 70.28
Major exporters 4/
Dec 26.22 58.96 4.25 34.84 27.99 -0.16 26.76
Jan 25.37 58.19 4.45 34.83 28.14 -0.16 25.20
Central Asia 5/ Dec 2.96 4.81 0.20 3.95 1.42 0.00 2.60
Jan 2.91 4.81 0.20 3.94 1.42 0.00 2.57
Afr Fr Z 6/ Dec 1.37 4.03 3/ 0.11 4.07 0.00 1.23
Jan 1.37 4.03 3/ 0.11 4.07 0.00 1.23
S Hemis 7/ Dec 11.44 25.71 0.15 4.51 20.86 -0.16 12.08
Jan 11.44 25.43 0.15 4.51 20.91 -0.16 11.75
Australia Dec 4.79 4.50 3/ 0.00 5.10 -0.16 4.35
Jan 4.79 4.50 3/ 0.00 5.30 -0.16 4.15
Brazil Dec 3.42 18.75 0.01 3.40 14.50 0.00 4.27
Jan 3.42 18.75 0.01 3.40 14.50 0.00 4.27
India Dec 10.02 24.00 2.80 25.00 1.30 0.00 10.52
Jan 9.22 23.50 3.00 25.00 1.40 0.00 9.32
Major Importers 8/
Dec 42.08 43.67 36.42 77.45 2.41 0.00 42.31
Jan 42.08 44.44 36.32 77.85 2.29 0.02 42.68
Mexico Dec 0.28 0.58 0.70 1.30 0.10 0.00 0.16
Jan 0.28 0.58 0.70 1.30 0.10 0.02 0.14
China Dec 34.84 33.50 5.40 38.50 0.08 0.00 35.16
Jan 34.84 34.50 5.40 39.00 0.08 0.00 35.66
European Union 9/ Dec 0.20 1.23 0.47 0.51 1.16 0.00 0.23
Jan 0.20 1.20 0.47 0.51 1.14 0.00 0.22
Turkey Dec 1.28 3.20 4.70 6.90 1.00 0.00 1.28
Jan 1.28 3.00 4.60 6.80 0.90 0.00 1.18
Pakistan Dec 2.10 5.00 5.90 10.90 0.05 0.00 2.05
Jan 2.10 5.00 5.90 10.90 0.05 0.00 2.05
Indonesia Dec 0.41 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.00 0.40
Jan 0.41 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.00 0.40
Thailand Dec 0.11 3/ 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.11
Jan 0.11 3/ 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.11
Bangladesh Dec 1.71 0.15 8.00 8.10 0.00 0.00 1.77
Jan 1.71 0.15 8.00 8.10 0.00 0.00 1.77
Vietnam Dec 1.02 3/ 8.10 8.10 0.00 0.00 1.02
Jan 1.02 3/ 8.10 8.10 0.00 0.00 1.02
==============================================================================
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Mon Jan 12 12:01:57 2026 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===========================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===========================================================================
2024/25 (Estimated)
World 73.35 118.48 43.03 118.94 42.39 -0.22 73.76
World Less China 36.64 86.48 37.85 79.94 42.33 -0.22 38.93
United States 3.15 14.41 3/ 1.70 11.90 -0.03 4.00
Total Foreign 70.20 104.06 43.03 117.24 30.49 -0.19 69.76
Major exporters 4/ 24.12 57.82 4.29 34.70 26.34 -0.19 25.37
Central Asia 5/ 3.13 5.09 0.10 3.94 1.47 0.00 2.91
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.29 4.25 3/ 0.10 4.07 0.00 1.37
S Hemis 7/ 10.04 24.70 0.15 4.49 19.14 -0.19 11.44
Australia 4.22 5.60 3/ 0.00 5.23 -0.19 4.79
Brazil 2.83 17.00 3/ 3.39 13.02 0.00 3.42
India 9.30 23.20 3.04 25.00 1.33 0.00 9.22
Major importers 8/ 43.86 43.32 35.92 78.00 3.01 0.00 42.08
Mexico 0.24 0.97 0.60 1.35 0.18 0.00 0.28
China 36.71 32.00 5.19 39.00 0.06 0.00 34.84
European Union 9/ 0.27 1.24 0.41 0.46 1.26 0.00 0.20
Turkey 1.40 3.95 4.46 7.10 1.43 0.00 1.28
Pakistan 1.85 5.00 6.10 10.80 0.05 0.00 2.10
Indonesia 0.40 3/ 1.98 1.95 0.02 0.00 0.41
Thailand 0.09 3/ 0.51 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.11
Bangladesh 1.71 0.15 8.05 8.20 0.00 0.00 1.71
Vietnam 1.03 3/ 7.98 8.00 0.00 0.00 1.02
2023/24
World 75.86 112.55 44.05 114.99 44.32 -0.21 73.35
World Less China 42.50 85.20 29.08 76.09 44.26 -0.21 36.64
United States 4.65 12.07 3/ 1.85 11.75 -0.03 3.15
Total Foreign 71.21 100.48 44.05 113.14 32.57 -0.18 70.20
Major exporters 4/ 27.24 57.93 1.63 34.60 28.25 -0.18 24.12
Central Asia 5/ 3.62 5.00 0.05 3.90 1.65 0.00 3.13
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 0.96 5.02 3/ 0.10 4.59 0.00 1.29
S Hemis 7/ 11.37 22.03 0.15 4.44 19.24 -0.18 10.04
Australia 4.81 5.00 3/ 0.00 5.76 -0.18 4.22
Brazil 3.93 14.57 0.01 3.37 12.31 0.00 2.83
India 10.82 25.40 0.89 25.50 2.31 0.00 9.30
Major importers 8/ 41.78 39.61 39.95 74.49 2.99 0.00 43.86
Mexico 0.38 0.87 0.70 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.24
China 33.36 27.35 14.97 38.90 0.06 0.00 36.71
European Union 9/ 0.40 1.04 0.47 0.51 1.14 0.00 0.27
Turkey 2.63 3.19 3.57 6.60 1.39 0.00 1.40
Pakistan 1.53 7.00 3.20 9.70 0.18 0.00 1.85
Indonesia 0.36 3/ 1.85 1.80 0.01 0.00 0.40
Thailand 0.14 3/ 0.40 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.09
Bangladesh 1.73 0.16 7.58 7.75 0.00 0.00 1.71
Vietnam 1.05 3/ 6.59 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.03
===========================================================================
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Jan 12
Mon Jan 12 12:01:57 2026 EDT
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2024/25 2025/26
prev Jan 12 prev Jan 12
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 11.18 11.18 9.30 9.28
Harvested 7.81 7.81 7.37 7.80
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 886 886 929 856
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 3.15 3.15 4.00 4.00
Production 14.41 14.41 14.27 13.92
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 17.57 17.57 18.27 17.92
Domestic use 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.60
Exports, total 11.90 11.90 12.20 12.20
Use, total 13.60 13.60 13.80 13.80
Unaccounted 2/ -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.08
Ending stocks 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.20
Avg. farm price 3/ 63.00 63.00 60.00 61.00
=========================================================================
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Jan 12
Mon Jan 12 12:04:24 2026 EDT
Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2024-25
=========================================================================
Type Yield Production 1/
And ============================================================-
State Annual Annual
2024 Dec 1 2025 2024 Dec 1 2025
=========================================================================
====== Pounds ====== ==== 1,000 Bales 2/ ====
Upland
AL 816.0 1,011.0 1,011.0 673.0 600.0 600.0
AZ 1,299.0 1,294.0 1,395.0 257.0 240.0 250.0
AR 1,341.0 1,538.0 1,398.0 1,788.0 1,650.0 1,500.0
CA 1,739.0 1,763.0 1,898.0 75.0 65.0 70.0
FL 697.0 960.0 936.0 119.0 120.0 115.0
GA 858.0 1,012.0 1,047.0 1,930.0 1,750.0 1,800.0
KS 778.0 847.0 948.0 201.0 150.0 160.0
LA 1,070.0 1,486.0 1,405.0 330.0 260.0 240.0
MS 1,157.0 1,329.0 1,193.0 1,241.0 900.0 800.0
MO 1,320.0 1,313.0 1,214.0 1,045.0 930.0 860.0
NM 703.0 720.0 600.0 41.0 30.0 25.0
NC 942.0 1,152.0 1,169.0 785.0 660.0 670.0
OK 701.0 785.0 815.0 270.0 450.0 560.0
SC 860.0 977.0 977.0 396.0 340.0 340.0
TN 1,052.0 1,440.0 935.0 548.0 570.0 370.0
TX 656.0 667.0 600.0 4,030.0 5,000.0 5,000.0
VA 1,136.0 1,167.0 1,133.0 213.0 175.0 170.0
U.S. 880.0 922.0 847.0 13,942.0 13,890.0 13,530.0
Amer-Pima
AZ 1,029.0 1,053.0 929.0 30.0 34.0 30.0
CA 1,237.0 1,582.0 1,582.0 366.0 300.0 300.0
NM 794.0 529.0 794.0 24.0 14.0 21.0
TX 816.0 720.0 935.0 51.0 30.0 37.0
U.S. 1,128.0 1,303.0 1,348.0 471.0 378.0 388.0
All
AL 816.0 1,011.0 1,011.0 673.0 600.0 600.0
AZ 1,264.0 1,259.0 1,324.0 287.0 274.0 280.0
AR 1,341.0 1,538.0 1,398.0 1,788.0 1,650.0 1,500.0
CA 1,301.0 1,612.0 1,634.0 441.0 365.0 370.0
FL 697.0 960.0 936.0 119.0 120.0 115.0
GA 858.0 1,012.0 1,047.0 1,930.0 1,750.0 1,800.0
KS 778.0 847.0 948.0 201.0 150.0 160.0
LA 1,070.0 1,486.0 1,405.0 330.0 260.0 240.0
MS 1,157.0 1,329.0 1,193.0 1,241.0 900.0 800.0
MO 1,320.0 1,313.0 1,214.0 1,045.0 930.0 860.0
NM 734.0 646.0 675.0 65.0 44.0 46.0
NC 942.0 1,152.0 1,169.0 785.0 660.0 670.0
OK 701.0 785.0 815.0 270.0 450.0 560.0
SC 860.0 977.0 977.0 396.0 340.0 340.0
TN 1,052.0 1,440.0 935.0 548.0 570.0 370.0
TX 657.0 667.0 602.0 4,081.0 5,030.0 5,037.0
VA 1,136.0 1,167.0 1,133.0 213.0 175.0 170.0
U.S. 886.0 929.0 856.0 14,413.0 14,268.0 13,918.0
=========================================================================
Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested by Type, State,
and United States, 2023-25
=========================================================================
Type Area Planted Area Harvested
and ============================================================-
State Annual Annual
2023 2024 2025 2024 Dec 1 2025
=========================================================================
============== 1,000 Acres ==============
Upland
AL 380.0 400.0 290.0 396.0 285.0 285.0
AZ 76.0 96.0 87.0 95.0 89.0 86.0
AR 510.0 650.0 520.0 640.0 515.0 515.0
CA 13.0 21.0 18.0 20.7 17.7 17.7
FL 89.0 85.0 61.0 82.0 60.0 59.0
GA 1,110.0 1,100.0 835.0 1,080.0 830.0 825.0
KS 112.0 131.0 102.0 124.0 85.0 81.0
LA 120.0 155.0 90.0 148.0 84.0 82.0
MS 400.0 520.0 330.0 515.0 325.0 322.0
MO 335.0 400.0 355.0 380.0 340.0 340.0
NM 32.0 42.0 30.0 28.0 20.0 20.0
NC 380.0 410.0 285.0 400.0 275.0 275.0
OK 420.0 435.0 390.0 185.0 275.0 330.0
SC 210.0 225.0 170.0 221.0 167.0 167.0
TN 265.0 265.0 205.0 250.0 190.0 190.0
TX 5,550.0 5,950.0 5,300.0 2,950.0 3,600.0 4,000.0
VA 81.0 91.0 73.0 90.0 72.0 72.0
U.S. 10,083.0 10,976.0 9,141.0 7,604.7 7,229.7 7,666.7
Amer-Pima
AZ 16.0 14.0 15.5 14.0 15.5 15.5
CA 85.0 145.0 92.0 142.0 91.0 91.0
NM 17.0 15.0 13.0 14.5 12.7 12.7
TX 29.0 33.0 21.0 30.0 20.0 19.0
U.S. 147.0 207.0 141.5 200.5 139.2 138.2
All
AL 380.0 400.0 290.0 396.0 285.0 285.0
AZ 92.0 110.0 102.5 109.0 104.5 101.5
AR 510.0 650.0 520.0 640.0 515.0 515.0
CA 98.0 166.0 110.0 162.7 108.7 108.7
FL 89.0 85.0 61.0 82.0 60.0 59.0
GA 1,110.0 1,100.0 835.0 1,080.0 830.0 825.0
KS 112.0 131.0 102.0 124.0 85.0 81.0
LA 120.0 155.0 90.0 148.0 84.0 82.0
MS 400.0 520.0 330.0 515.0 325.0 322.0
MO 335.0 400.0 355.0 380.0 340.0 340.0
NM 49.0 57.0 43.0 42.5 32.7 32.7
NC 380.0 410.0 285.0 400.0 275.0 275.0
OK 420.0 435.0 390.0 185.0 275.0 330.0
SC 210.0 225.0 170.0 221.0 167.0 167.0
TN 265.0 265.0 205.0 250.0 190.0 190.0
TX 5,579.0 5,983.0 5,321.0 2,980.0 3,620.0 4,019.0
VA 81.0 91.0 73.0 90.0 72.0 72.0
U.S. 10,230.0 11,183.0 9,282.5 7,805.2 7,368.9 7,804.9
=========================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
END
