ICE COTTON FUTURES
December 10, 2019
Open High Low Close Change
Mar 20 65.74 66.23 64.88 65.93 +.55
May 20 66.68 67.22 65.92 66.90 +.50
Jul 20 67.48 67.95 66.75 67.59 +.42
Oct 20 - - - 67.91 +.49
Dec 20 67.35 68.05 67.00 67.79 +.49
Mar 21 68.30 68.54 68.30 68.39 +.55
May 21 - - - 68.45 +.46
Jul 21 - - - 68.55 +.46
Oct 21 - - - 68.05 +.46
Dec 21 - - - 67.30 +.46
ICE estimated futures volume:25,200
NY定期3月限は、寄り付きからしばらくは小幅な値動きで推移していたが、米国農務省月間需給報告が発表されると、値を上げた。
最終的に前日比55ポイント高の65.93/LBで引けた。
出来高は、25,200枚。
【相場動向要因】
本日米国農務省月間需給報告が発表された。
報告によると、2019/2020CROPの米棉生産量が、前回報告より約60万俵下方修正された。一方で、輸出量は据え置きとなっている。
生産量について州別にみると、テキサスの生産量が、約50万俵下方修正されている。
世界全体で見ると、生産量が約83万俵下方修正され、121.11百万俵と報告されている一方で、国内消費量が約120万俵下方修正されている。
この結果が強気材料として作用したものと思われる。
米中通商問題では、担当者ベースで、15日の関税発動延期の方向で調整が進められていると報じられている。
現時点ではトランプ大統領の決断待ちとなっているとのこと。
今週、米連邦公開市場委員会を控えており、市場参加者の関心を集めている。
米国農務省月間需給報告の詳細は以下の通り；
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Dec 10
Tue Dec 10 12:03:25 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2019/20 (Projected)
World
Nov 80.55 121.94 44.03 121.49 44.03 0.20 80.80
Dec 79.69 121.11 44.38 120.27 44.40 0.19 80.32
World Less China
Nov 44.88 94.69 34.53 81.99 43.85 0.20 48.06
Dec 44.02 93.86 35.38 81.77 44.22 0.19 47.08
United States
Nov 4.85 20.82 0.01 3.00 16.50 0.07 6.10
Dec 4.85 20.21 0.01 3.00 16.50 0.06 5.50
Total foreign
Nov 75.70 101.12 44.03 118.49 27.53 0.13 74.70
Dec 74.84 100.90 44.38 117.27 27.90 0.13 74.82
Major exporters 4/
Nov 28.95 56.44 2.48 33.75 23.13 0.02 30.97
Dec 28.08 57.12 2.88 33.85 23.40 0.02 30.82
Central Asia 5/ Nov 2.47 5.25 3/ 4.04 1.53 0.00 2.15
Dec 2.31 5.86 3/ 4.14 1.89 0.00 2.14
Afr Fr Z 6/ Nov 1.37 5.89 3/ 0.14 5.66 0.00 1.46
Dec 1.37 5.91 3/ 0.14 5.68 0.00 1.46
S Hemis 7/ Nov 14.82 14.82 0.18 4.38 11.54 0.01 13.89
Dec 14.81 15.37 0.18 4.38 11.54 0.01 14.44
Australia Nov 1.57 1.20 3/ 0.04 1.70 0.00 1.04
Dec 1.57 0.85 3/ 0.04 1.50 0.00 0.89
Brazil Nov 11.78 11.60 0.03 3.40 8.60 0.00 11.41
Dec 11.78 12.50 0.03 3.40 8.80 0.00 12.10
India Nov 10.01 30.00 1.80 24.50 4.10 0.00 13.21
Dec 9.31 29.50 2.20 24.50 4.00 0.00 12.51
Major importers 8/
Nov 44.80 41.63 38.97 80.54 2.84 0.11 41.90
Dec 44.80 40.73 38.92 79.22 2.94 0.11 42.17
Mexico Nov 0.77 1.58 0.85 2.00 0.45 0.03 0.72
Dec 0.77 1.58 0.85 2.00 0.45 0.03 0.72
China Nov 35.67 27.25 9.50 39.50 0.18 0.00 32.75
Dec 35.67 27.25 9.00 38.50 0.18 0.00 33.25
EU-27 9/ Nov 0.23 1.86 0.65 0.69 1.76 0.03 0.26
Dec 0.23 1.96 0.65 0.69 1.86 0.03 0.26
Turkey Nov 1.59 3.80 3.80 7.10 0.35 0.00 1.74
Dec 1.59 3.60 4.00 7.10 0.35 0.00 1.74
Pakistan Nov 2.50 7.00 3.60 10.70 0.10 0.03 2.27
Dec 2.50 6.20 4.20 10.60 0.10 0.03 2.17
Indonesia Nov 0.53 3/ 3.10 3.10 0.01 0.00 0.53
Dec 0.53 3/ 3.10 3.10 0.01 0.00 0.53
Thailand Nov 0.18 3/ 1.05 1.03 0.00 0.03 0.18
Dec 0.18 3/ 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.03 0.15
Bangladesh Nov 1.78 0.14 7.30 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.81
Dec 1.78 0.14 7.30 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.81
Vietnam Nov 1.19 3/ 7.50 7.40 0.00 0.00 1.29
Dec 1.19 3/ 7.20 7.20 0.00 0.00 1.19
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Tue Dec 10 12:03:32 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2018/19 (Estimated)
World 80.84 118.10 42.50 120.29 41.34 0.12 79.69
World Less China 42.85 90.35 32.86 80.79 41.13 0.12 44.02
United States 4.20 18.37 3/ 2.98 14.76 -0.02 4.85
Total Foreign 76.64 99.73 42.50 117.31 26.58 0.14 74.84
Major exporters 4/ 26.84 54.13 2.50 32.99 22.37 0.02 28.08
Central Asia 5/ 2.67 5.44 3/ 3.80 2.01 0.00 2.31
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.70 5.36 3/ 0.14 5.55 0.00 1.37
S Hemis 7/ 13.01 16.89 0.18 4.39 10.86 0.01 14.81
Australia 3.04 2.20 3/ 0.04 3.63 0.00 1.57
Brazil 8.66 12.52 0.02 3.40 6.02 0.00 11.78
India 9.23 25.80 1.80 24.00 3.51 0.00 9.31
Major importers 8/ 47.95 42.65 37.46 80.16 2.99 0.11 44.80
Mexico 0.66 1.74 0.85 1.95 0.50 0.03 0.77
China 37.99 27.75 9.64 39.50 0.21 0.00 35.67
EU-27 9/ 0.30 1.72 0.64 0.69 1.72 0.03 0.23
Turkey 1.78 3.70 3.50 6.90 0.48 0.00 1.59
Pakistan 2.83 7.60 2.85 10.70 0.06 0.03 2.50
Indonesia 0.63 3/ 3.05 3.15 0.01 0.00 0.53
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.08 1.08 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh 1.86 0.14 7.20 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.78
Vietnam 1.29 3/ 6.90 7.00 0.00 0.00 1.19
2017/18
World 80.29 123.78 41.16 122.76 41.51 0.12 80.84
World Less China 34.37 96.28 35.45 81.76 41.38 0.12 42.85
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 16.28 -0.03 4.20
Total Foreign 77.54 102.86 41.16 119.54 25.24 0.15 76.64
Major exporters 4/ 21.90 57.10 2.47 32.75 21.86 0.02 26.84
Central Asia 5/ 2.18 6.50 3/ 3.38 2.63 0.00 2.67
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.46 5.44 3/ 0.14 5.06 0.00 1.70
S Hemis 7/ 10.18 15.70 0.24 4.44 8.65 0.01 13.01
Australia 2.19 4.80 3/ 0.04 3.92 0.00 3.04
Brazil 6.93 9.22 0.08 3.40 4.17 0.00 8.66
India 7.88 29.00 1.68 24.15 5.18 0.00 9.23
Major importers 8/ 54.18 42.93 36.05 82.74 2.35 0.12 47.95
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.66
China 45.92 27.50 5.71 41.00 0.14 0.00 37.99
EU-27 9/ 0.19 1.53 0.73 0.75 1.37 0.04 0.30
Turkey 1.53 4.00 4.02 7.45 0.33 0.00 1.78
Pakistan 2.32 8.20 3.40 10.90 0.16 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.52 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.63
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.15 1.13 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 7.00 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.29
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
END.
