ICE COTTON FUTURES
February 8, 2019
Open High Low Close Change
Mar 19 72.66 73.01 72.45 72.55 -.26
May 19 73.92 74.09 73.60 73.69 -.23
Jul 19 75.27 75.46 74.92 75.01 -.30
Oct 19 74.89 74.89 74.89 74.31 -.30
Dec 19 74.51 74.55 73.83 73.93 -.60
Mar 20 75.86 75.92 75.46 75.24 -.70
May 20 76.10 76.10 76.10 75.88 -.73
Jul 20 76.46 76.46 76.46 76.32 -.73
Oct 20 - - - 74.36 -.73
Dec 20 - - - 73.24 -.73
ICE estimated futures volume: 48,900
NY定期3月限は、寄付きから方向感なく推移し、最終的に前日比26ポイント安の72.55/LBで引けた。出来高は、48,900枚。
本日米国農務省月間需給報告が発表された。米国農務省閉鎖状態により、前回の発表から2か月ぶりの発表となった。
今回の報告では、中国国内消費量が前回より約100万俵下方修正されるなど、世界全体の国内消費が約200万俵下方修正された。その結果、世界全体の期末在庫が前回より約230万俵上方修正されている。
一方、米棉の生産量は、前回より約20万俵下方修正され、期末在庫も約10万俵下方修正された。
しかし、市場にとってはすでに織り込み済みであり、市場参加者の多くは、大きな反応を示さなかった模様。
詳細は、後述する。
市場参加者の多くは、現地2月9日に発表されるNCCによるPLANTING INTENTIONレポートにも注目している。
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Feb 8
Fri Feb 08 12:06:03 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use
(Million 480-pound bales)
==============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss stocks
==============================================================================
2018/19 (Projected)
World
Dec 80.45 118.74 41.71 125.63 41.73 0.35 73.19
Feb 81.05 118.45 42.31 123.64 42.32 0.36 75.50
United States
Dec 4.30 18.59 0.01 3.30 15.00 0.19 4.40
Feb 4.30 18.39 0.01 3.20 15.00 0.20 4.30
Total foreign
Dec 76.15 100.15 41.71 122.33 26.73 0.16 68.79
Feb 76.75 100.06 42.30 120.44 27.32 0.16 71.20
Major exporters
Dec 26.15 54.91 2.32 34.30 22.57 0.02 26.50
Feb 26.75 54.77 2.35 33.80 23.22 0.02 26.83
Central Asia Dec 2.72 5.47 3/ 3.61 2.21 0.00 2.37
Feb 2.72 5.59 3/ 3.61 2.26 0.00 2.44
Afr Fr Zone Dec 1.80 5.86 3/ 0.14 5.45 0.00 2.07
Feb 1.83 5.58 3/ 0.14 5.47 0.00 1.80
S Hemis Dec 12.72 15.51 0.22 4.57 10.16 0.01 13.70
Feb 12.73 15.98 0.27 4.57 10.61 0.01 13.79
Australia Dec 2.94 2.50 3/ 0.04 3.60 0.00 1.81
Feb 2.94 2.60 3/ 0.04 3.60 0.00 1.90
Brazil Dec 8.66 11.00 0.08 3.50 5.80 0.00 10.43
Feb 8.66 11.40 0.13 3.50 6.20 0.00 10.48
India Dec 8.68 27.50 1.60 25.30 4.40 0.00 8.08
Feb 9.23 27.00 1.60 24.80 4.50 0.00 8.53
Major exporters
Dec 47.91 42.23 36.80 83.94 2.84 0.14 40.02
Feb 47.90 42.25 37.36 82.55 2.74 0.14 42.09
Mexico Dec 0.66 1.73 0.90 1.95 0.60 0.03 0.71
Feb 0.66 1.73 0.85 1.95 0.60 0.03 0.66
China Dec 38.02 27.00 7.00 41.50 0.15 0.00 30.37
Feb 38.02 27.50 7.50 40.50 0.15 0.00 32.37
EU-27 Dec 0.27 1.66 0.71 0.75 1.53 0.05 0.32
Feb 0.27 1.69 0.70 0.74 1.55 0.05 0.31
Turkey Dec 1.88 4.30 2.90 7.00 0.40 0.00 1.68
Feb 1.88 3.70 3.20 6.80 0.30 0.00 1.68
Pakistan Dec 2.83 7.40 2.90 10.60 0.15 0.03 2.36
Feb 2.83 7.50 3.00 10.60 0.13 0.03 2.58
Indonesia Dec 0.62 3/ 3.65 3.60 0.01 0.00 0.66
Feb 0.62 3/ 3.65 3.60 0.01 0.00 0.66
Thailand Dec 0.18 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.18
Feb 0.18 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh Dec 1.86 0.14 8.10 8.00 0.00 0.01 2.08
Feb 1.86 0.14 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.01 1.98
Vietnam Dec 1.19 3/ 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.00 1.29
Feb 1.19 3/ 7.40 7.30 0.00 0.00 1.29
==============================================================================
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Fri Feb 08 12:06:08 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===========================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===========================================================================
2017/18 (Estimated)
World 80.40 123.69 40.93 122.58 40.92 0.47 81.05
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 15.85 0.30 4.30
Total Foreign 77.65 102.77 40.93 119.35 25.07 0.17 76.75
Major exporters 4/ 21.85 56.82 2.47 32.75 21.63 0.02 26.75
Central Asia 5/ 2.18 6.51 3/ 3.38 2.60 0.00 2.72
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.53 5.42 3/ 0.14 4.99 0.00 1.83
S Hemis 7/ 10.05 15.44 0.25 4.45 8.55 0.01 12.73
Australia 2.19 4.70 3/ 0.04 3.92 0.00 2.94
Brazil 6.93 9.22 0.08 3.40 4.17 0.00 8.66
India 7.88 29.00 1.68 24.15 5.18 0.00 9.23
Major importers 8/ 54.17 42.95 35.85 82.58 2.34 0.15 47.90
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.66
China 45.92 27.50 5.73 41.00 0.13 0.00 38.02
EU-27 9/ 0.18 1.54 0.72 0.75 1.37 0.06 0.27
Turkey 1.53 4.00 4.02 7.35 0.33 0.00 1.88
Pakistan 2.32 8.20 3.30 10.80 0.16 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.15 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 6.90 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.19
2016/17
World 90.34 106.66 37.70 116.18 37.91 0.21 80.40
United States 3.80 17.17 0.01 3.25 14.92 0.06 2.75
Total Foreign 86.54 89.49 37.69 112.93 22.99 0.15 77.65
Major exporters 4/ 19.55 50.72 3.63 32.27 19.78 0.01 21.85
Central Asia 5/ 2.35 5.99 3/ 2.83 3.32 0.00 2.18
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.16 5.12 3/ 0.14 4.60 0.01 1.53
S Hemis 7/ 8.76 12.25 0.37 4.29 7.05 -0.02 10.05
Australia 1.88 4.05 3/ 0.04 3.73 -0.03 2.19
Brazil 5.71 7.02 0.19 3.20 2.79 0.00 6.93
India 7.04 27.00 2.74 24.35 4.55 0.00 7.88
Major importers 8/ 65.27 35.86 31.92 76.72 2.03 0.14 54.17
Mexico 0.61 0.77 1.00 1.75 0.15 0.03 0.45
China 56.70 22.75 5.03 38.50 0.06 0.00 45.92
EU-27 9/ 0.27 1.31 0.69 0.72 1.33 0.05 0.18
Turkey 1.53 3.20 3.68 6.55 0.33 0.00 1.53
Pakistan 2.62 7.70 2.45 10.30 0.13 0.03 2.32
Indonesia 0.53 0.01 3.39 3.30 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.23 1.20 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.52 0.13 6.80 6.80 0.00 0.01 1.63
Vietnam 0.78 3/ 5.50 5.40 0.00 0.00 0.88
===========================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho Paraguay
South Africa Tanzania and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and
regions listed includes Hong Kong Japan Russia South Korea and
Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
END.
