ICE COTTON FUTURES
DECEMBER 11, 2018
Open High Low Close Change
Mar 19 79.88 80.66 79.11 80.02 +.14
May 19 81.05 81.73 80.29 81.13 +.24
Jul 19 81.65 82.29 81.01 81.72 +.26
Oct 19 - - - 78.80 +.26
Dec 19 77.83 78.13 77.41 77.82 +.19
Mar 20 78.73 78.82 78.72 78.52 +.21
May 20 - - - 79.06 +.21
Jul 20 - - - 79.30 +.21
Oct 20 - - - 76.07 +.21
Dec 20 - - - 75.44 +.21
ICE estimated futures volume:24,900
NY定期3月限は、寄付きから小幅な値動きで徐々に値を上げたものの、米国農務省月間需給報告が発表されると一気に値を下げた。しかし、最終的に値を戻し、前日比14ポイント高の80.02/LBで引けた。出来高は、24,900枚。
市場予想に反する米棉生産量の上方修正を受けて、NY定期相場は一時値を下げたが、その後紡績による値決めなどが入り、値を上げ、その後、米中貿易戦争などによる先行き不透明感から大きな動きなく、小幅に引けたものと思われる。
米中関係は未だ不安定な状態が続いており、多くの市場参加者は様子を見守っているようである。
本日の米国農務省月間需給報告では、2018/2019CROPの米棉の生産量が全体で約18万俵上方修正され、約1,859万俵と報告されている。テキサス州だけを見ると、約30万俵上方修正され、約700万俵と報告されている。また、米棉の期末在庫も前回の発表から10万俵上方修正され、約440万俵となった。
世界全体で見ると、生産量は、米棉（+18万俵）、ブラジル棉（+100万俵）などの上方修正があるものの、一方で、インド（▲50万俵）、トルコ（▲20万俵）、パキスタン(▲60万俵)などの下方修正が入り、118.74百万俵（▲65万俵）の下方修正となった。豪州綿の生産量は、前月比据え置きで、250万俵と報告されている。
消費量を見ると、中国の消費量は前月比で約100万俵下方修正されている。他には、パキスタン（▲20万俵）、トルコ（▲10万俵）と報告されている。
世界全体の期末在庫は、前月比約58万俵上方修正されている。
現地12月13日には米国農務省週間輸出成約報告が発表される。
米国農務省月間需給報告の詳細は以下の通り：
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Dec 11
Tue Dec 11 12:04:43 2018 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2018/19 (Projected)
World
Nov 80.39 119.39 41.11 126.88 41.13 0.27 72.61
Dec 80.45 118.74 41.71 125.63 41.73 0.35 73.19
United States
Nov 4.30 18.41 0.01 3.30 15.00 0.11 4.30
Dec 4.30 18.59 0.01 3.30 15.00 0.19 4.40
Total foreign
Nov 76.09 100.98 41.11 123.58 26.13 0.16 68.31
Dec 76.15 100.15 41.71 122.33 26.73 0.16 68.79
Major exporters 4/
Nov 26.10 54.44 2.22 34.45 21.97 0.02 26.31
Dec 26.15 54.91 2.32 34.30 22.57 0.02 26.50
Central Asia 5/ Nov 2.66 5.67 3/ 3.76 2.11 0.00 2.46
Dec 2.72 5.47 3/ 3.61 2.21 0.00 2.37
Afr Fr Z 6/ Nov 1.80 5.73 3/ 0.14 5.35 0.00 2.05
Dec 1.80 5.86 3/ 0.14 5.45 0.00 2.07
S Hemis 7/ Nov 12.72 14.46 0.22 4.57 9.86 0.01 12.95
Dec 12.72 15.51 0.22 4.57 10.16 0.01 13.70
Australia Nov 2.94 2.50 3/ 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.71
Dec 2.94 2.50 3/ 0.04 3.60 0.00 1.81
Brazil Nov 8.66 10.00 0.08 3.50 5.50 0.00 9.73
Dec 8.66 11.00 0.08 3.50 5.80 0.00 10.43
India Nov 8.68 28.00 1.50 25.30 4.30 0.00 8.58
Dec 8.68 27.50 1.60 25.30 4.40 0.00 8.08
Major importers 8/
Nov 47.91 43.53 36.40 85.04 2.84 0.14 39.82
Dec 47.91 42.23 36.80 83.94 2.84 0.14 40.02
Mexico Nov 0.66 1.73 0.90 1.90 0.60 0.03 0.76
Dec 0.66 1.73 0.90 1.95 0.60 0.03 0.71
China Nov 38.02 27.50 7.00 42.50 0.15 0.00 29.87
Dec 38.02 27.00 7.00 41.50 0.15 0.00 30.37
EU-27 9/ Nov 0.27 1.66 0.71 0.75 1.53 0.05 0.32
Dec 0.27 1.66 0.71 0.75 1.53 0.05 0.32
Turkey Nov 1.88 4.50 2.90 7.10 0.40 0.00 1.78
Dec 1.88 4.30 2.90 7.00 0.40 0.00 1.68
Pakistan Nov 2.83 8.00 2.60 10.80 0.15 0.03 2.46
Dec 2.83 7.40 2.90 10.60 0.15 0.03 2.36
Indonesia Nov 0.62 3/ 3.65 3.55 0.01 0.00 0.71
Dec 0.62 3/ 3.65 3.60 0.01 0.00 0.66
Thailand Nov 0.18 3/ 1.13 1.10 0.00 0.03 0.18
Dec 0.18 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh Nov 1.86 0.14 8.10 8.00 0.00 0.01 2.08
Dec 1.86 0.14 8.10 8.00 0.00 0.01 2.08
Vietnam Nov 1.19 3/ 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.00 1.29
Dec 1.19 3/ 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.00 1.29
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho Paraguay
South Africa Tanzania and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and
regions listed includes Hong Kong Japan Russia South Korea and
Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
Write to Rose Ridinger at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 11, 2018 12:04 ET (17:04 GMT)
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Tue Dec 11 12:07:08 2018 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2017/18 (Estimated)
World 80.40 123.70 40.98 123.16 40.99 0.47 80.45
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 15.85 0.30 4.30
Total Foreign 77.65 102.77 40.98 119.94 25.15 0.17 76.15
Major exporters 4/ 21.86 56.88 2.47 33.30 21.73 0.02 26.15
Central Asia 5/ 2.18 6.51 3/ 3.38 2.60 0.00 2.72
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.53 5.49 3/ 0.14 5.09 0.00 1.80
S Hemis 7/ 10.06 15.42 0.25 4.45 8.55 0.01 12.72
Australia 2.19 4.70 3/ 0.04 3.92 0.00 2.94
Brazil 6.93 9.22 0.08 3.40 4.17 0.00 8.66
India 7.88 29.00 1.68 24.70 5.18 0.00 8.68
Major importers 8/ 54.17 42.95 35.86 82.58 2.34 0.15 47.91
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.66
China 45.92 27.50 5.73 41.00 0.13 0.00 38.02
EU-27 9/ 0.18 1.54 0.73 0.76 1.37 0.06 0.27
Turkey 1.53 4.00 4.02 7.35 0.33 0.00 1.88
Pakistan 2.32 8.20 3.30 10.80 0.16 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.15 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 6.90 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.19
2016/17
World 90.33 106.66 37.70 116.17 37.90 0.21 80.40
United States 3.80 17.17 0.01 3.25 14.92 0.06 2.75
Total Foreign 86.53 89.49 37.69 112.92 22.99 0.15 77.65
Major exporters 4/ 19.55 50.72 3.63 32.27 19.78 0.01 21.86
Central Asia 5/ 2.35 5.99 3/ 2.83 3.32 0.00 2.18
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.16 5.12 3/ 0.14 4.60 0.01 1.53
S Hemis 7/ 8.76 12.25 0.37 4.29 7.04 -0.02 10.06
Australia 1.88 4.05 3/ 0.04 3.73 -0.03 2.19
Brazil 5.71 7.02 0.19 3.20 2.79 0.00 6.93
India 7.04 27.00 2.74 24.35 4.55 0.00 7.88
Major importers 8/ 65.27 35.86 31.91 76.71 2.03 0.14 54.17
Mexico 0.61 0.77 1.00 1.75 0.15 0.03 0.45
China 56.70 22.75 5.03 38.50 0.06 0.00 45.92
EU-27 9/ 0.26 1.31 0.69 0.71 1.33 0.05 0.18
Turkey 1.53 3.20 3.68 6.55 0.33 0.00 1.53
Pakistan 2.62 7.70 2.45 10.30 0.13 0.03 2.32
Indonesia 0.53 0.01 3.39 3.30 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.23 1.20 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.52 0.13 6.80 6.80 0.00 0.01 1.63
Vietnam 0.78 3/ 5.50 5.40 0.00 0.00 0.88
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho Paraguay
South Africa Tanzania and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and
regions listed includes Hong Kong Japan Russia South Korea and
Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
Write to Rose Ridinger at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 11, 2018 12:07 ET (17:07 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
米国農務省米棉作況報告の詳細は以下の通り：
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton/Cottonseed-Dec 11
Tue Dec 11 12:02:56 2018 EDT
Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2017 and Forecasted Dec 1, 2018
=============================================================================
Area Harvested Yield Production 1/
State ======================================================================
2017 2018 2017 Nov 1 2018 2017 Nov 1 2018
=============================================================================
1,000 Acres ==Pounds== == 1,000 Bales 2/ ==
Upland
AL 430.0 470.0 902.0 899.0 883.0 808.0 880.0 865.0
AZ 159.0 149.0 1,464.0 1,450.0 1,450.0 485.0 450.0 450.0
AR 438.0 480.0 1,177.0 1,150.0 1,160.0 1,074.0 1,150.0 1,160.0
CA 87.0 49.0 1,297.0 2,057.0 1,910.0 235.0 210.0 195.0
FL 98.0 80.0 759.0 750.0 750.0 155.0 125.0 125.0
GA 1,270.0 1,350.0 841.0 693.0 676.0 2,225.0 1,950.0 1,900.0
KS 90.0 159.0 1,051.0 1,032.0 1,032.0 197.0 342.0 342.0
LA 217.0 190.0 894.0 1,061.0 1,036.0 404.0 420.0 410.0
MS 625.0 615.0 1,038.0 1,140.0 1,155.0 1,351.0 1,460.0 1,480.0
MO 297.0 320.0 1,212.0 1,245.0 1,275.0 750.0 830.0 850.0
NM 46.0 65.0 1,179.0 1,034.0 1,034.0 113.0 140.0 140.0
NC 367.0 400.0 969.0 828.0 828.0 741.0 690.0 690.0
OK 555.0 570.0 882.0 716.0 674.0 1,020.0 850.0 800.0
SC 248.0 280.0 912.0 806.0 771.0 471.0 470.0 450.0
TN 340.0 355.0 1,033.0 1,048.0 1,034.0 732.0 775.0 765.0
TX 5,500.0 4,500.0 809.0 715.0 747.0 9,270.0 6,700.0 7,000.0
VA 83.0 97.0 1,110.0 965.0 965.0 192.0 195.0 195.0
U.S. 10,850.0 10,129.0 895.0 836.0 844.0 20,223.0 17,637.0 17,817.0
Amer-Pima
AZ 15.0 13.5 966.0 889.0 889.0 30.2 25.0 25.0
CA 215.0 209.0 1,407.0 1,610.0 1,610.0 630.0 701.0 701.0
NM 7.4 6.9 863.0 904.0 904.0 13.3 13.0 13.0
TX 13.0 16.0 960.0 960.0 960.0 26.0 32.0 32.0
U.S. 250.4 245.4 1,341.0 1,508.0 1,508.0 699.5 771.0 771.0
All
AL 430.0 470.0 902.0 899.0 883.0 808.0 880.0 865.0
AZ 174.0 162.5 1,421.0 1,403.0 1,403.0 515.2 475.0 475.0
AR 438.0 480.0 1,177.0 1,150.0 1,160.0 1,074.0 1,150.0 1,160.0
CA 302.0 258.0 1,375.0 1,695.0 1,667.0 865.0 911.0 896.0
FL 98.0 80.0 759.0 750.0 750.0 155.0 125.0 125.0
GA 1,270.0 1,350.0 841.0 693.0 676.0 2,225.0 1,950.0 1,900.0
KS 90.0 159.0 1,051.0 1,032.0 1,032.0 197.0 342.0 342.0
LA 217.0 190.0 894.0 1,061.0 1,036.0 404.0 420.0 410.0
MS 625.0 615.0 1,038.0 1,140.0 1,155.0 1,351.0 1,460.0 1,480.0
MO 297.0 320.0 1,212.0 1,245.0 1,275.0 750.0 830.0 850.0
NM 53.4 71.9 1,135.0 1,021.0 1,021.0 126.3 153.0 153.0
NC 367.0 400.0 969.0 828.0 828.0 741.0 690.0 690.0
OK 555.0 570.0 882.0 716.0 674.0 1,020.0 850.0 800.0
SC 248.0 280.0 912.0 806.0 771.0 471.0 470.0 450.0
TN 340.0 355.0 1,033.0 1,048.0 1,034.0 732.0 775.0 765.0
TX 5,513.0 4,516.0 809.0 716.0 747.0 9,296.0 6,732.0 7,032.0
VA 83.0 97.0 1,110.0 965.0 965.0 192.0 195.0 195.0
U.S. 11,100.4 10,374.4 905.0 852.0 860.0 20,922.5 18,408.0 18,588.0
=============================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
Cottonseed: Production, United States,
2017 and Forecasted Dec 1, 2018
=============================================================================
Production
State ====================================================================
2017 2018 1/
=============================================================================
1,000 Tons
U.S. 6,422.0 5,858.0
=============================================================================
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
Write to Valena Henderson at csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 11, 2018 12:02 ET (17:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
END.
