ICE COTTON FUTURES
June 11, 2019
Open High Low Close Change
Jul 19 66.14 66.36 65.29 65.65 -.34
Oct 19 65.57 65.69 65.02 65.46 -.41
Dec 19 65.57 66.03 64.70 65.04 -.53
Mar 20 66.38 66.87 65.51 65.91 -.50
May 20 67.60 67.60 66.41 66.77 -.50
Jul 20 67.29 67.58 66.96 67.32 -.50
Oct 20 - - - 66.71 -.46
Dec 20 65.75 65.75 65.51 65.90 -.40
Mar 21 - - - 66.85 -.40
May 21 - - - 67.85 -.40
ICE estimated futures volume: 51,900
NY定期7月限は、寄付きから方向感なく小幅な値動きで推移し、最終的に前日比34ポイント安の65.65/LBで引けた。また、期近12月限は、前日比53ポイント安の65.04/LBで引けている。出来高は、51,900枚。
本日は大手投機筋による5日間にわたるポジション限月乗換の4日目となった。
期近7月限が現地6月24日に第一回受渡通知日を控えており、ポジション整理の動きも進んでいるものと思われる。
本日米国農務省月間需給報告が発表された。2019/2020CROPの米棉の生産量や期末在庫の数字は前回発表から据え置きとなった。詳細は下記に記載する。
米国現地6月13日には、米国農務省週間輸出成約報告が発表される予定。
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Jun 11
Tue Jun 11 12:02:50 2019 EDT
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2018/2019 2019/2020
prev Jun 11 prev Jun 11
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 14.10 14.10 13.78 * 13.78 *
Harvested 10.21 10.21 12.54 * 12.54 *
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 864 864 842 * 842 *
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.30 4.30 4.65 4.65
Production 18.37 18.37 22.00 22.00
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 22.67 22.67 26.66 26.66
Domestic use 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10
Exports 14.75 14.75 17.00 17.00
Use, total 17.85 17.85 20.10 20.10
Unaccounted 2/ 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16
Ending stocks 4.65 4.65 6.40 6.40
Avg. farm price 3/ 70.00 70.00 65.00 64.00
==========================================================================
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per
pound for upland cotton.
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long
staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to
rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply
less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
*Planted area as reported in March 29 2019 Prospective Plantings. Harvested
area based on 10-year average abandonment by region with the Southwest
adjusted to reflect favorable moisture conditions. Yield based on 5-year
average yields by region.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Jun 11
Tue Jun 11 12:02:17 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2019/20 (Projected)
World
May 76.47 125.45 45.35 125.93 45.35 0.31 75.69
Jun 77.53 125.32 44.74 125.27 44.75 0.31 77.26
World Less China
May 42.85 97.70 34.35 84.43 45.22 0.31 44.94
Jun 43.16 97.57 34.24 84.27 44.63 0.31 45.76
United States
May 4.65 22.00 0.01 3.10 17.00 0.16 6.40
Jun 4.65 22.00 0.01 3.10 17.00 0.16 6.40
Total foreign
May 71.82 103.45 45.35 122.83 28.35 0.16 69.29
Jun 72.88 103.32 44.74 122.17 27.75 0.16 70.86
Major exporters 4/
May 26.42 56.97 2.14 34.81 24.18 0.02 26.51
Jun 26.73 56.78 2.14 34.81 23.64 0.02 27.18
Central Asia 5/ May 2.30 5.57 3/ 3.99 1.79 0.00 2.10
Jun 2.29 5.82 3/ 3.99 1.79 0.00 2.33
Afr Fr Z 6/ May 1.64 6.01 3/ 0.14 5.70 0.00 1.81
Jun 1.59 6.01 3/ 0.14 5.61 0.00 1.85
S Hemis 7/ May 15.09 16.40 0.21 4.67 11.93 0.01 15.09
Jun 14.86 15.97 0.21 4.67 11.17 0.01 15.19
Australia May 1.30 2.20 3/ 0.04 2.40 0.00 1.07
Jun 1.20 1.90 3/ 0.04 1.80 0.00 1.27
Brazil May 12.21 12.00 0.08 3.60 8.20 0.00 12.48
Jun 12.21 12.00 0.08 3.60 8.20 0.00 12.48
India May 7.13 28.50 1.40 25.30 4.50 0.00 7.23
Jun 7.78 28.50 1.40 25.30 4.80 0.00 7.58
Major importers 8/
May 43.43 43.52 40.60 83.79 2.90 0.14 40.72
Jun 44.23 43.52 40.00 83.09 2.88 0.14 41.65
Mexico May 0.72 1.75 0.85 2.00 0.55 0.03 0.75
Jun 0.72 1.75 0.85 2.00 0.55 0.03 0.75
China May 33.62 27.75 11.00 41.50 0.13 0.00 30.74
Jun 34.37 27.75 10.50 41.00 0.13 0.00 31.49
EU-27 9/ May 0.31 1.78 0.67 0.73 1.69 0.05 0.29
Jun 0.26 1.78 0.67 0.73 1.67 0.05 0.26
Turkey May 1.53 4.10 3.00 6.70 0.38 0.00 1.55
Jun 1.63 4.10 3.00 6.70 0.38 0.00 1.65
Pakistan May 2.78 8.00 2.90 10.70 0.15 0.03 2.81
Jun 2.83 8.00 2.90 10.70 0.15 0.03 2.86
Indonesia May 0.61 3/ 3.20 3.20 0.01 0.00 0.61
Jun 0.61 3/ 3.20 3.20 0.01 0.00 0.61
Thailand May 0.20 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.21
Jun 0.20 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.21
Bangladesh May 1.98 0.14 8.40 8.40 0.00 0.01 2.11
Jun 1.98 0.14 8.30 8.30 0.00 0.01 2.11
Vietnam May 1.29 3/ 7.60 7.60 0.00 0.00 1.29
Jun 1.24 3/ 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.00 1.34
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.a
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Tue Jun 11 12:02:41 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2018/19 (Estimated)
World 80.94 118.87 42.46 122.31 42.10 0.33 77.53
World Less China 42.92 91.12 33.71 82.31 41.95 0.33 43.16
United States 4.30 18.37 0.01 3.10 14.75 0.17 4.65
Total Foreign 76.64 100.50 42.45 119.21 27.35 0.16 72.88
Major exporters 4/ 26.94 54.88 2.19 33.86 23.40 0.02 26.73
Central Asia 5/ 2.71 5.48 3/ 3.70 2.20 0.00 2.29
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.70 5.41 3/ 0.14 5.37 0.00 1.59
S Hemis 7/ 13.07 17.36 0.19 4.56 11.19 0.01 14.86
Australia 3.04 2.40 3/ 0.04 4.20 0.00 1.20
Brazil 8.66 12.80 0.05 3.50 5.80 0.00 12.21
India 9.23 26.00 1.55 24.80 4.20 0.00 7.78
Major importers 8/ 47.86 42.70 37.72 81.13 2.78 0.14 44.23
Mexico 0.66 1.69 0.85 1.95 0.50 0.03 0.72
China 38.02 27.75 8.75 40.00 0.15 0.00 34.37
EU-27 9/ 0.25 1.72 0.69 0.75 1.60 0.05 0.26
Turkey 1.78 3.70 3.20 6.60 0.45 0.00 1.63
Pakistan 2.83 7.70 3.00 10.60 0.08 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.10 3.10 0.01 0.00 0.61
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.86 0.14 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.01 1.98
Vietnam 1.24 3/ 7.10 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.24
2017/18
World 80.31 123.78 41.02 122.68 41.02 0.47 80.94
World Less China 34.39 96.28 35.29 81.68 40.89 0.47 42.92
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 15.85 0.30 4.30
Total Foreign 77.56 102.86 41.02 119.45 25.17 0.17 76.64
Major exporters 4/ 21.94 57.10 2.46 32.75 21.79 0.02 26.94
Central Asia 5/ 2.18 6.50 3/ 3.38 2.60 0.00 2.71
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.46 5.44 3/ 0.14 5.06 0.00 1.70
S Hemis 7/ 10.21 15.70 0.24 4.44 8.63 0.01 13.07
Australia 2.19 4.80 3/ 0.04 3.92 0.00 3.04
Brazil 6.93 9.22 0.08 3.40 4.17 0.00 8.66
India 7.88 29.00 1.68 24.15 5.18 0.00 9.23
Major importers 8/ 54.17 42.93 35.91 82.66 2.34 0.15 47.86
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.66
China 45.92 27.50 5.73 41.00 0.13 0.00 38.02
EU-27 9/ 0.18 1.53 0.73 0.76 1.37 0.06 0.25
Turkey 1.53 4.00 4.02 7.45 0.33 0.00 1.78
Pakistan 2.32 8.20 3.30 10.80 0.16 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.15 1.13 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 6.95 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.24
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
END.
