ICE COTTON FUTURES
August 10, 2018
Open High Low Close Change
Oct 18 87.66 87.82 85.52 85.86 -1.40
Dec 18 87.25 87.69 85.10 85.23 -2.03
Mar 19 87.64 88.07 85.56 85.71 -1.98
May 19 87.92 88.41 86.03 86.17 -1.96
Jul 19 88.02 88.36 86.25 86.37 -1.85
Oct 19 - - - 81.22 -1.26
Dec 19 80.79 81.00 79.89 80.00 -.79
Mar 20 80.86 80.86 79.89 79.94 -.83
May 20 - - - 80.20 -.83
Jul 20 - - - 80.37 -.83
ICE estimated futures volume:35,900
NY定期12月限は、寄付きから動意薄で推移したが、米国農務省月間需給報告が発表されると値を下げ、最終的に前日比203ポイント安の85.23/LBで引けた。出来高は、35,900枚。
本日発表された米国農務省月間需給報告では、2018/2019CROPの米綿の生産量が、前回の報告から、4%上方修正され、約1,920万俵と報告されている。また、2018/2019CROPの期初在庫も7月度の報告(約400万俵)から上方修正され、約440万俵と報告されている。
西テキサスの天候不順などにより、生産量の減少が懸念されていた中で、上記の発表がされたことで、市場は反応し、本日の相場の下げにつながったと思われる。米国農務省月間需給報告の詳細は、下記に記載。
また、本日、米国農務省より2018/2019CROPの州ごとの生産量見込も発表された。前年度と比較すると、全体で約8%程の減産予想（約2,100万俵→約1,900万俵）となっている。テキサス州では、前年度から約270万俵ほど生産量予想が下方修正されている。こちらも詳細は下記に記載。
米国農務省月間需給報告の詳細は以下の通り；
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Aug 10
Fri Aug 10 12:23:55 2018 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss stocks
=============================================================================
2018/19 (Projected)
World
Jul 84.96 120.11 41.23 126.95 41.24 0.27 77.84
Aug 84.51 120.53 41.80 127.62 41.82 0.30 77.10
United States
Jul 4.00 18.50 0.01 3.40 15.00 0.11 4.00
Aug 4.40 19.24 0.01 3.40 15.50 0.14 4.60
Total foreign
Jul 80.96 101.61 41.23 123.55 26.24 0.16 73.84
Aug 80.11 101.29 41.79 124.22 26.32 0.16 72.50
Major exporters
Jul 31.20 55.85 2.17 34.42 22.28 0.02 32.50
Aug 30.28 55.34 2.22 34.42 22.39 0.02 31.01
Central Asia Jul 2.83 6.47 3/ 3.72 2.58 0.00 3.01
Aug 2.77 5.90 3/ 3.71 2.38 0.00 2.58
Afr Fr Z Jul 2.65 5.28 3/ 0.14 4.76 0.00 3.02
Aug 2.22 5.28 3/ 0.14 4.97 0.00 2.39
S Hemis Jul 12.85 14.86 0.22 4.69 10.35 0.01 12.89
Aug 12.61 14.92 0.22 4.69 10.20 0.01 12.86
Australia Jul 3.06 3.70 3/ 0.04 4.40 0.00 2.32
Aug 2.86 3.55 3/ 0.04 4.30 0.00 2.07
Brazil Jul 8.63 9.50 0.08 3.60 5.40 0.00 9.20
Aug 8.63 9.50 0.08 3.60 5.30 0.00 9.31
India Jul 12.63 28.70 1.50 25.20 4.30 0.00 13.33
Aug 12.43 28.70 1.50 25.20 4.50 0.00 12.93
Major importers
Jul 47.83 42.75 36.60 85.10 2.72 0.14 39.22
Aug 47.74 42.95 37.09 85.74 2.66 0.14 39.25
Mexico Jul 0.75 1.75 0.93 1.90 0.55 0.03 0.95
Aug 0.65 1.75 0.90 1.90 0.55 0.03 0.83
China Jul 37.69 26.50 7.00 42.50 0.15 0.00 28.54
Aug 37.79 26.50 7.00 42.50 0.15 0.00 28.64
EU-27 Jul 0.25 1.56 0.71 0.74 1.46 0.05 0.27
Aug 0.25 1.56 0.70 0.75 1.45 0.05 0.26
Turkey Jul 2.03 4.30 3.60 7.40 0.35 0.00 2.18
Aug 1.95 4.50 3.50 7.50 0.33 0.00 2.13
Pakistan Jul 2.88 8.50 2.30 10.70 0.20 0.03 2.76
Aug 2.87 8.50 2.50 11.00 0.18 0.03 2.67
Indonesia Jul 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.62
Aug 0.62 3/ 3.75 3.65 0.01 0.00 0.72
Thailand Jul 0.18 3/ 1.08 1.05 0.00 0.03 0.18
Aug 0.18 3/ 1.13 1.10 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh Jul 1.86 0.14 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.01 1.98
Aug 1.86 0.14 8.10 8.00 0.00 0.01 2.08
Vietnam Jul 1.19 3/ 7.70 7.50 0.00 0.00 1.39
Aug 1.19 3/ 7.70 7.50 0.00 0.00 1.39
=============================================================================
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Fri Aug 10 12:24:04 2018 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss stocks
=============================================================================
2017/18 (Estimated)
World 84.09 123.51 40.79 122.74 40.79 0.35 84.51
United States 2.75 20.92 0.01 3.25 15.85 0.18 4.40
Total Foreign 81.34 102.59 40.79 119.49 24.94 0.17 80.11
Major exporters 25.56 56.67 2.48 32.92 21.50 0.02 30.28
Central Asia 2.17 6.62 3/ 3.49 2.54 0.00 2.77
Afr. Fr. Zone 2.00 5.22 3/ 0.14 4.87 0.00 2.22
S Hemis 10.06 15.37 0.23 4.46 8.58 0.01 12.61
Australia 2.19 4.70 3/ 0.04 4.00 0.00 2.86
Brazil 6.93 9.20 0.08 3.40 4.18 0.00 8.63
India 11.13 29.00 1.70 24.20 5.20 0.00 12.43
Major importers 54.15 42.94 35.68 82.53 2.36 0.15 47.74
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.65
China 45.92 27.50 5.50 41.00 0.13 0.00 37.79
EU-27 0.17 1.54 0.73 0.76 1.37 0.06 0.25
Turkey 1.58 4.00 4.00 7.30 0.33 0.00 1.95
Pakistan 2.27 8.20 3.40 10.80 0.17 0.03 2.87
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.55 3.55 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.13 1.13 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 6.90 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.19
2016/17
World 93.45 106.63 37.65 115.78 37.65 0.21 84.09
United States 3.80 17.17 0.01 3.25 14.92 0.06 2.75
Total Foreign 89.65 89.46 37.65 112.53 22.73 0.15 81.34
Major exporters 22.68 50.69 3.63 31.91 19.52 0.01 25.56
Central Asia 2.35 5.99 3/ 2.82 3.34 0.00 2.17
Afr. Fr. Zone 1.38 5.09 3/ 0.14 4.33 0.01 2.00
S Hemis 8.77 12.25 0.37 4.29 7.05 -0.02 10.06
Australia 1.88 4.05 3/ 0.04 3.73 -0.03 2.19
Brazil 5.71 7.02 0.19 3.20 2.79 0.00 6.93
India 9.94 27.00 2.74 24.00 4.55 0.00 11.13
Major importers 65.26 35.86 31.86 76.66 2.03 0.14 54.15
Mexico 0.61 0.77 1.00 1.75 0.15 0.03 0.45
China 56.70 22.75 5.03 38.50 0.06 0.00 45.92
EU-27 0.25 1.31 0.69 0.71 1.33 0.05 0.17
Turkey 1.53 3.20 3.68 6.50 0.33 0.00 1.58
Pakistan 2.62 7.70 2.40 10.30 0.13 0.03 2.27
Indonesia 0.53 0.01 3.39 3.30 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.23 1.20 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.52 0.13 6.80 6.80 0.00 0.01 1.63
Vietnam 0.78 3/ 5.50 5.40 0.00 0.00 0.88
=============================================================================
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Aug 10
Fri Aug 10 12:27:54 2018 EDT
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use
========================================================================
Item 2017/2018 2018/2019
prev Aug 10 prev Aug 10
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 12.61 12.61 13.52 ** 13.52
Harvested 11.10 11.10 10.51 ** 10.14
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 905 905 845 ** 911
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 2.75 2.75 4.00 4.40
Production 20.92 20.92 18.50 19.24
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 23.68 23.68 22.51 23.64
Domestic use 3.35 3.25 3.40 3.40
Exports 16.20 15.85 15.00 15.50
Use, total 19.55 19.10 18.40 18.90
Unaccounted 0.13 0.18 0.11 0.14
Ending stocks 4.00 4.40 4.00 4.60
Avg. farm price 68.00 68.00 68.00 - 82.00 70.00 - 80.00
=========================================================================
州別生産予想は以下の通り；
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Aug 10
Fri Aug 10 12:17:13 2018 EDT
Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2017 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2018
=============================================================================
Type Area Harvested Yield Production
and ==================================================================
State 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
=============================================================================
==1,000 Acres== === Pounds === ===== 1,000 Bales =====
Upland
AL 430.0 485.0 902 1,000 808.0 1,010.0
AZ 159.0 149.0 1,464 1,466 485.0 455.0
AR 438.0 475.0 1,177 1,112 1,074.0 1,100.0
CA 87.0 49.0 1,297 1,861 235.0 190.0
FL 98.0 113.0 759 935 155.0 220.0
GA 1,270.0 1,440.0 841 967 2,225.0 2,900.0
KS 90.0 116.0 1,051 1,034 197.0 250.0
LA 217.0 175.0 894 1,070 404.0 390.0
MS 625.0 555.0 1,038 1,211 1,351.0 1,400.0
MO 297.0 340.0 1,212 1,200 750.0 850.0
NM 46.0 65.0 1,179 1,182 113.0 160.0
NC 367.0 430.0 969 849 741.0 761.0
OK 555.0 520.0 882 766 1,020.0 830.0
SC 248.0 258.0 912 930 471.0 500.0
TN 340.0 345.0 1,033 1,050 732.0 755.0
TX 5,500.0 4,300.0 809 726 9,270.0 6,500.0
VA 83.0 84.0 1,110 1,057 192.0 185.0
U.S. 10,850.0 9,899.0 895 895 20,223.0 18,456.0
Amer Pima
AZ 15.0 13.5 966 924 30.2 26.0
CA 215.0 209.0 1,407 1,654 630.0 720.0
NM 7.4 6.9 863 765 13.3 11.0
TX 13.0 11.0 960 960 26.0 22.0
U.S. 250.4 240.4 1,341 1,555 699.5 779.0
All Cotton
AL 430.0 485.0 902 1,000 808.0 1,010.0
AZ 174.0 162.5 1,421 1,421 515.2 481.0
AR 438.0 475.0 1,177 1,112 1,074.0 1,100.0
CA 302.0 258.0 1,375 1,693 865.0 910.0
FL 98.0 113.0 759 935 155.0 220.0
GA 1,270.0 1,440.0 841 967 2,225.0 2,900.0
KS 90.0 116.0 1,051 1,034 197.0 250.0
LA 217.0 175.0 894 1,070 404.0 390.0
MS 625.0 555.0 1,038 1,211 1,351.0 1,400.0
MO 297.0 340.0 1,212 1,200 750.0 850.0
NM 53.4 71.9 1,135 1,142 126.3 171.0
NC 367.0 430.0 969 849 741.0 761.0
OK 555.0 520.0 882 766 1,020.0 830.0
SC 248.0 258.0 912 930 471.0 500.0
TN 340.0 345.0 1,033 1,050 732.0 755.0
TX 5,513.0 4,311.0 809 726 9,296.0 6,522.0
VA 83.0 84.0 1,110 1,057 192.0 185.0
U.S. 11,100.4 10,139.4 905 911 20,922.5 19,235.0
=============================================================================
END.
