ICE COTTON FUTURES
August 11, 2023
Open High Low Close Change
Oct 23 87.31 90.16 87.04 89.29 +2.00
Dec 23 86.15 88.83 85.00 87.89 +1.74
Mar 24 86.01 88.55 85.05 87.67 +1.52
May 24 85.89 88.40 85.17 87.54 +1.30
Jul 24 85.49 87.72 84.81 86.97 +1.16
Oct 24 - - - 82.36 +.31
Dec 24 79.85 80.60 79.52 80.52 +.46
Mar 25 - - - 80.77 +.46
May 25 - - - 80.40 +.44
Jul 25 - - - 80.75 +.44
ICE estimated futures volume: 50,400
12月限は寄付きから出来高も低く動きがないまま推移。しかし、米国農務省から需給報告がリリースされると上昇。
一時89セントを試したが、引けにかけ落ち着いた。
結果、前日比174ポイント高の87.89/lbで引けた。推定出来高は50,400枚。
【相場動向要因】
綿花相場は米国農務省から発表された需給報告で、米国綿花生産量が250万俵の下方修正が加わり、
約1400万俵となり、ここ最近ではかなりの低水準となり、値を上げた。
収穫が始まったばかりの段階で大幅な下方修正であり、今後修正が入る可能性はあるものの、
予想以上の下方修正に相場は反応した。
【米国農務省需給報告】
・米国綿花生産 250万俵下方修正
・米国綿花輸出量 125万俵下方修正され、豪州・ブラジルの輸出量が上方修正
・中国期初在庫が63万俵下方修正
・中国綿花消費量が50万俵上方修正
・トルコ綿花消費量 10万俵上方修正
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2023/24 (Projected)
World
Jul 93.95 116.84 43.49 116.45 43.51 -0.20 94.52
Aug 94.13 114.12 43.88 116.94 43.86 -0.25 91.60
World Less China
Jul 54.96 89.84 33.74 79.45 43.41 -0.20 55.88
Aug 55.77 87.12 33.88 79.44 43.76 -0.25 53.83
United States
Jul 3.25 16.50 0.01 2.20 13.75 0.01 3.80
Aug 3.70 13.99 0.01 2.15 12.50 -0.05 3.10
Total foreign
Jul 90.70 100.34 43.48 114.25 29.76 -0.20 90.72
Aug 90.43 100.12 43.88 114.79 31.36 -0.20 88.50
Major exporters 4/
Jul 39.01 57.29 2.12 33.75 25.70 -0.20 39.17
Aug 39.43 57.07 2.17 33.71 27.28 -0.20 37.88
Central Asia 5/ Jul 3.22 5.41 0.10 4.27 1.40 0.00 3.05
Aug 3.29 5.19 0.10 4.19 1.38 0.00 3.01
Afr Fr Z 6/ Jul 1.43 5.32 3/ 0.10 5.10 0.00 1.55
Aug 1.13 5.32 3/ 0.10 5.00 0.00 1.36
S Hemis 7/ Jul 22.42 20.48 0.17 4.35 16.58 -0.20 22.34
Aug 23.00 20.48 0.17 4.40 18.23 -0.20 21.22
Australia Jul 4.34 5.40 3/ 0.01 5.80 -0.20 4.13
Aug 4.74 5.40 3/ 0.01 5.90 -0.20 4.43
Brazil Jul 15.85 13.25 0.02 3.30 9.75 0.00 16.07
Aug 15.89 13.25 0.02 3.30 11.25 0.00 14.61
India Jul 11.60 25.50 1.50 24.50 2.20 0.00 11.90
Aug 11.70 25.50 1.50 24.50 2.20 0.00 12.00
Major importers 8/
Jul 48.80 39.91 38.96 76.49 2.53 0.00 48.65
Aug 48.09 39.91 39.24 77.00 2.54 0.00 47.70
Mexico Jul 0.65 1.28 1.00 1.95 0.40 0.00 0.57
Aug 0.50 1.28 1.00 1.95 0.40 0.00 0.42
China Jul 38.99 27.00 9.75 37.00 0.10 0.00 38.64
Aug 38.36 27.00 10.00 37.50 0.10 0.00 37.76
European Union 9/ Jul 0.46 1.48 0.57 0.62 1.46 0.00 0.43
Aug 0.42 1.48 0.59 0.61 1.47 0.00 0.41
Turkey Jul 3.61 3.50 4.30 7.90 0.50 0.00 3.01
Aug 3.53 3.50 4.40 8.00 0.50 0.00 2.93
Pakistan Jul 1.50 6.50 4.20 10.00 0.05 0.00 2.15
Aug 1.55 6.50 4.20 10.00 0.05 0.00 2.20
Indonesia Jul 0.35 3/ 2.40 2.30 0.01 0.00 0.45
Aug 0.35 3/ 2.30 2.20 0.01 0.00 0.45
Thailand Jul 0.15 3/ 0.74 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.15
Aug 0.15 3/ 0.74 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.16
Bangladesh Jul 1.88 0.16 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 2.04
Aug 1.98 0.16 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 2.14
Vietnam Jul 1.03 3/ 7.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 1.03
Aug 1.03 3/ 7.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 1.03
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1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia,
Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina
Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali,
Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South
Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
END.
