ICE COTTON FUTURES
March 8, 2019
Open High Low Close Change
May 19 73.14 73.77 72.51 73.49 +.38
Jul 19 74.31 74.90 73.72 74.63 +.33
Oct 19 - - - 73.99 +.24
Dec 19 73.45 73.59 72.77 73.50 +.12
Mar 20 74.00 74.33 73.80 74.40 +.03
May 20 74.20 74.20 74.20 74.82 +.05
Jul 20 - - - 75.10 +.05
Oct 20 - - - 73.68 +.05
Dec 20 72.55 72.56 72.55 72.68 +.23
Mar 21 - - - 72.92 +.23
ICE estimated futures volume: 28,100
NY定期5月限は、寄付きから動意薄で推移した。その後、米国農務省月間需給報告が発表されたが、大きな値動きは確認されず、最終的に前日比38ポイント高の73.49/LBで引けた。出来高は、28,100枚。
本日の米国農務省月間需給報告を見ると、2018/2019CROPの世界全体の原綿生産量は、ブラジルで35万俵、パキスタンで20万俵などの上方修正が入り、全体で44万俵の上方修正となった。一方で、世界全体の棉花輸出量が、14万俵下方修正されている。その結果、世界全体の期末在庫は、前回発表から59万俵上方修正され、7,609万俵と報告されている。
中国やベトナムの原綿使用量などは、前回の報告から据え置きとなった。
また、米棉の生産量や輸出量も前回報告から据え置きとなっている。
今回の米国農務省月間需給報告は、市場参加者にとって予想の範囲内だったようで、市場はそれほど大きな動きを見せることなく引けたものと思われる。
米国農務省月間需給報告の詳細は以下の通り：
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Mar 8
Fri Mar 08 12:05:34 2019 EDT
U.S.Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===================================================================
Item 2017/18 2018/19
prev Mar 8 prev Mar 8
===================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 12.72 12.72 14.10 14.10
Harvested 11.10 11.10 10.53 10.53
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 905.00 905.00 838.00 838.00
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 2.75 2.75 4.30 4.30
Production 20.92 20.92 18.39 18.39
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 23.68 23.68 22.70 22.70
Domestic use 3.23 3.23 3.20 3.20
Exports 15.85 15.85 15.00 15.00
Use, total 19.07 19.07 18.20 18.20
Unaccounted 2/ 0.30 0.30 0.20 0.20
Ending stocks 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30
Avg. farm price 3/ 68.60 68.60 71.00 - 73.00 69.00 - 71.00
===================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long
staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to
rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply
less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Mar 8
Fri Mar 08 12:03:23 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
==============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
==============================================================================
2018/19 (Projected)
World
Feb 81.05 118.45 42.31 123.64 42.32 0.36 75.50
Mar 81.14 118.89 42.18 123.59 42.18 0.36 76.09
United States
Feb 4.30 18.39 0.01 3.20 15.00 0.20 4.30
Mar 4.30 18.39 0.01 3.20 15.00 0.20 4.30
Total foreign
Feb 76.75 100.06 42.30 120.44 27.32 0.16 71.20
Mar 76.84 100.50 42.17 120.39 27.18 0.16 71.79
Major exporters 4/
Feb 26.75 54.77 2.35 33.80 23.22 0.02 26.83
Mar 26.84 55.01 2.32 33.80 23.03 0.02 27.32
Central Asia 5/ Feb 2.72 5.59 3/ 3.61 2.26 0.00 2.44
Mar 2.71 5.55 3/ 3.61 2.26 0.00 2.39
Afr Fr Zone 6/ Feb 1.83 5.58 3/ 0.14 5.47 0.00 1.80
Mar 1.83 5.58 3/ 0.14 5.47 0.00 1.80
S Hemis 7/ Feb 12.73 15.98 0.27 4.57 10.61 0.01 13.79
Mar 12.83 16.26 0.24 4.57 10.42 0.01 14.33
Australia Feb 2.94 2.60 3/ 0.04 3.60 0.00 1.90
Mar 3.04 2.50 3/ 0.04 3.60 0.00 1.90
Brazil Feb 8.66 11.40 0.13 3.50 6.20 0.00 10.48
Mar 8.66 11.75 0.10 3.50 6.00 0.00 11.01
India Feb 9.23 27.00 1.60 24.80 4.50 0.00 8.53
Mar 9.23 27.00 1.60 24.80 4.50 0.00 8.53
Major Importers 8/
Feb 47.90 42.25 37.36 82.55 2.74 0.14 42.09
Mar 47.90 42.45 37.26 82.50 2.79 0.14 42.19
Mexico Feb 0.66 1.73 0.85 1.95 0.60 0.03 0.66
Mar 0.66 1.73 0.85 1.95 0.60 0.03 0.66
China Feb 38.02 27.50 7.50 40.50 0.15 0.00 32.37
Mar 38.02 27.50 7.50 40.50 0.15 0.00 32.37
EU-27 9/ Feb 0.27 1.69 0.70 0.74 1.55 0.05 0.31
Mar 0.27 1.69 0.70 0.74 1.55 0.05 0.31
Turkey Feb 1.88 3.70 3.20 6.80 0.30 0.00 1.68
Mar 1.88 3.70 3.20 6.80 0.35 0.00 1.63
Pakistan Feb 2.83 7.50 3.00 10.60 0.13 0.03 2.58
Mar 2.83 7.70 3.00 10.60 0.13 0.03 2.78
Indonesia Feb 0.62 3/ 3.65 3.60 0.01 0.00 0.66
Mar 0.62 3/ 3.55 3.55 0.01 0.00 0.61
Thailand Feb 0.18 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.18
Mar 0.18 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh Feb 1.86 0.14 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.01 1.98
Mar 1.86 0.14 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.01 1.98
Vietnam Feb 1.19 3/ 7.40 7.30 0.00 0.00 1.29
Mar 1.19 3/ 7.40 7.30 0.00 0.00 1.29
==============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho Paraguay
South Africa Tanzania and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and
regions listed includes Hong Kong Japan Russia South Korea and
Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Fri Mar 08 12:03:28 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===========================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===========================================================================
2017/18 (Estimated)
World 80.40 123.78 40.93 122.58 40.92 0.47 81.14
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 15.85 0.30 4.30
Total Foreign 77.65 102.86 40.93 119.35 25.07 0.17 76.84
Major exporters 4/ 21.85 56.91 2.47 32.75 21.63 0.02 26.84
Central Asia 5/ 2.18 6.50 3/ 3.38 2.60 0.00 2.71
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.53 5.42 3/ 0.14 4.99 0.00 1.83
S Hemis 7/ 10.05 15.54 0.25 4.45 8.55 0.01 12.83
Australia 2.19 4.80 3/ 0.04 3.92 0.00 3.04
Brazil 6.93 9.22 0.08 3.40 4.17 0.00 8.66
India 7.88 29.00 1.68 24.15 5.18 0.00 9.23
Major importers 8/ 54.17 42.95 35.85 82.58 2.34 0.15 47.90
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.66
China 45.92 27.50 5.73 41.00 0.13 0.00 38.02
EU-27 9/ 0.18 1.54 0.72 0.75 1.37 0.06 0.27
Turkey 1.53 4.00 4.02 7.35 0.33 0.00 1.88
Pakistan 2.32 8.20 3.30 10.80 0.16 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.15 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 6.90 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.19
2016/17
World 90.34 106.66 37.70 116.18 37.91 0.21 80.40
United States 3.80 17.17 0.01 3.25 14.92 0.06 2.75
Total Foreign 86.54 89.49 37.69 112.93 22.99 0.15 77.65
Major exporters 4/ 19.55 50.72 3.63 32.27 19.78 0.01 21.85
Central Asia 5/ 2.35 5.99 3/ 2.83 3.32 0.00 2.18
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.16 5.12 3/ 0.14 4.60 0.01 1.53
S Hemis 7/ 8.76 12.25 0.37 4.29 7.05 -0.02 10.05
Australia 1.88 4.05 3/ 0.04 3.73 -0.03 2.19
Brazil 5.71 7.02 0.19 3.20 2.79 0.00 6.93
India 7.04 27.00 2.74 24.35 4.55 0.00 7.88
Major importers 8/ 65.27 35.86 31.92 76.72 2.03 0.14 54.17
Mexico 0.61 0.77 1.00 1.75 0.15 0.03 0.45
China 56.70 22.75 5.03 38.50 0.06 0.00 45.92
EU-27 9/ 0.27 1.31 0.69 0.72 1.33 0.05 0.18
Turkey 1.53 3.20 3.68 6.55 0.33 0.00 1.53
Pakistan 2.62 7.70 2.45 10.30 0.13 0.03 2.32
Indonesia 0.53 0.01 3.39 3.30 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.23 1.20 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.52 0.13 6.80 6.80 0.00 0.01 1.63
Vietnam 0.78 3/ 5.50 5.40 0.00 0.00 0.88
===========================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho Paraguay
South Africa Tanzania and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and
regions listed includes Hong Kong Japan Russia South Korea and
Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
END.
