ICE No. 2 Cotton
September 12, 2024
Open High Low Settle Change
Oct '24 - - - 70.05 +74
Dec '24 69.64 70.59 69.30 70.38 +77
Mar '25 71.17 72.10 70.82 71.81 +64
May '25 72.31 73.23 72.03 72.94 +58
July '25 73.08 73.70 72.70 73.52 +48
Oct '25 - - - 72.36 +21
Dec '25 71.09 71.50 70.83 71.33 +17
Mar '26 72.38 72.60 72.34 72.60 +18
May '26 - - - 73.30 +18
July '26 - - - 73.79 +18
ICE estimated futures volume: 34,500
12月限は、129ポイントのレンジで推移し、10日、20日、40日、50日の移動平均線の上で2日連続で取引を終えた。これは4月3日以来のこと。
最終的には前日比77ポイント高の70.38/LBで引けた。推定出来高は34,500枚。
【相場要因】
昨日のショートカバーに続き、さらに多くのショートポジションの手仕舞いが月間需給報告の発表後に促されたとのこと。
需給報告では、米国サウスウエストの綿作地のイールドが減少したことなどから米綿の60万俵の生産削減となったことが報告されている。市場は急騰し、発表後に70.59セント/LB（+98ポイント）まで上昇。先週の高値である71.18/LBと先々週の71.36/LBに接近している。
米国では、ハリケーン・フランシーンが昨夜ルイジアナ州にカテゴリー2の嵐として上陸しており、すぐに勢いを失ったものの、デルタ地域に雨を降らせており、開球した綿花の品質に影響を与える可能性が高まっている。被害はまだ不明であり、今後の報告に注目が集まる。
【月間需給報告】
米国の供給状況が厳しくなる中、米国の輸出は20万俵下方修正され、11.8百万俵となり、期末在庫は50万俵下方修正の4百万俵となった。
世界的には、今月の変更は市場予想の範囲内であり、米国による生産の下方修正に加え、パキスタン（３０万俵下方修正）とインド（５０万俵下方修正）の生産も下方修正された。
一方で中国の生産は30万俵上方修正し、全体としては世界的に1.2百万俵の下方修正となった。また中国については、輸入が50万俵下方修正されており、これは現在の非常に静かな状況と一致している。
【週間輸出成約報告】
今日の週間輸出成約報告では、新規の成約はなく、中国からベトナムへの仕向け地変更が確認されている。
中国への輸出はわずか2.86万俵に留まった。ベトナム、バングラデシュ、トルコでも、今日の需給報告で国内使用の減少がみられた。
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2024/25 (Projected)
World
Aug 75.78 117.64 43.63 116.21 43.54 -0.31 77.61
Sep 75.61 116.42 42.99 115.75 42.99 -0.21 76.49
World Less China
Aug 38.15 90.14 33.63 78.21 43.47 -0.31 40.55
Sep 37.99 88.62 33.49 77.75 42.92 -0.21 39.65
United States
Aug 3.15 15.11 0.01 1.90 12.00 -0.14 4.50
Sep 3.15 14.51 0.01 1.90 11.80 -0.03 4.00
Total foreign
Aug 72.63 102.53 43.63 114.31 31.54 -0.18 73.11
Sep 72.46 101.91 42.98 113.85 31.19 -0.18 72.49
Major exporters 4/
Aug 25.64 59.22 2.70 34.68 27.33 -0.18 25.71
Sep 25.34 58.57 3.00 34.66 26.96 -0.18 25.47
Central Asia 5/ Aug 3.38 5.19 0.03 4.08 1.40 0.00 3.12
Sep 3.38 5.27 0.03 4.08 1.38 0.00 3.22
Afr Fr Z 6/ Aug 1.28 4.92 3/ 0.10 4.78 0.00 1.32
Sep 1.29 4.81 3/ 0.10 4.65 0.00 1.36
S Hemis 7/ Aug 10.08 24.05 0.15 4.36 19.18 -0.18 10.91
Sep 10.17 23.93 0.15 4.34 19.16 -0.18 10.93
Australia Aug 4.15 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.40 -0.18 3.91
Sep 4.19 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.40 -0.18 3.96
Brazil Aug 3.17 16.70 0.01 3.30 12.50 0.00 4.08
Sep 3.17 16.70 0.01 3.30 12.50 0.00 4.08
India Aug 10.57 24.50 2.00 25.50 1.50 0.00 10.07
Sep 10.17 24.00 2.30 25.50 1.30 0.00 9.67
Major importers 8/
Aug 44.59 39.82 38.26 75.32 2.39 0.00 44.96
Sep 44.71 39.85 37.33 74.91 2.39 0.00 44.59
Mexico Aug 0.24 0.80 0.95 1.55 0.20 0.00 0.24
Sep 0.24 0.83 0.93 1.55 0.20 0.00 0.24
China Aug 37.63 27.50 10.00 38.00 0.08 0.00 37.06
Sep 37.62 27.80 9.50 38.00 0.08 0.00 36.84
European Union 9/ Aug 0.35 1.36 0.55 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.44
Sep 0.32 1.36 0.54 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.41
Turkey Aug 1.43 4.00 4.80 7.60 0.80 0.00 1.83
Sep 1.41 4.00 4.70 7.50 0.80 0.00 1.81
Pakistan Aug 1.65 6.00 4.00 9.60 0.05 0.00 2.00
Sep 1.85 5.70 4.00 9.60 0.05 0.00 1.90
Indonesia Aug 0.40 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.01 0.00 0.39
Sep 0.40 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.01 0.00 0.39
Thailand Aug 0.10 3/ 0.40 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.09
Sep 0.09 3/ 0.40 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.08
Bangladesh Aug 1.59 0.16 7.80 7.80 0.00 0.00 1.74
Sep 1.59 0.16 7.70 7.70 0.00 0.00 1.74
Vietnam Aug 1.05 3/ 7.10 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.05
Sep 1.03 3/ 6.90 6.90 0.00 0.00 1.04
=============================================================================
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2023/24 (Estimated)
World 75.97 113.57 43.73 113.15 44.71 -0.21 75.61
World Less China 42.61 86.22 28.75 75.15 44.65 -0.21 37.99
United States 4.65 12.07 3/ 1.85 11.75 -0.03 3.15
Total Foreign 71.32 101.50 43.73 111.30 32.96 -0.18 72.46
Major exporters 4/ 27.23 58.41 1.53 33.76 28.25 -0.18 25.34
Central Asia 5/ 3.63 5.20 0.01 3.86 1.61 0.00 3.38
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 0.96 5.02 3/ 0.10 4.59 0.00 1.29
S Hemis 7/ 11.34 21.92 0.15 4.15 19.26 -0.18 10.17
Australia 4.78 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.76 -0.18 4.19
Brazil 4.01 14.57 0.01 3.10 12.31 0.00 3.17
India 10.82 25.80 0.88 25.00 2.33 0.00 10.17
Major importers 8/ 41.77 39.63 39.72 73.47 2.95 0.00 44.71
Mexico 0.38 0.87 0.70 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.24
China 33.36 27.35 14.98 38.00 0.06 0.00 37.62
European Union 9/ 0.39 1.05 0.50 0.53 1.10 0.00 0.32
Turkey 2.63 3.20 3.57 6.60 1.39 0.00 1.41
Pakistan 1.53 7.00 3.20 9.70 0.18 0.00 1.85
Indonesia 0.36 3/ 1.85 1.80 0.01 0.00 0.40
Thailand 0.14 3/ 0.40 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.09
Bangladesh 1.73 0.16 7.30 7.60 0.00 0.00 1.59
Vietnam 1.05 3/ 6.59 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.03
2022/23
World 71.01 116.46 37.65 112.64 36.78 -0.27 75.97
World Less China 36.84 85.71 31.42 74.94 36.68 -0.27 42.61
United States 4.60 14.47 3/ 2.05 12.45 -0.08 4.65
Total Foreign 66.41 102.00 37.65 110.59 24.33 -0.19 71.32
Major exporters 4/ 21.76 55.76 2.38 32.81 20.05 -0.20 27.23
Central Asia 5/ 2.73 5.54 0.01 3.53 1.12 0.00 3.63
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.01 4.02 3/ 0.10 3.98 0.00 0.96
S Hemis 7/ 9.19 19.32 0.14 4.12 13.39 -0.20 11.34
Australia 4.98 5.80 3/ 0.01 6.19 -0.20 4.78
Brazil 2.05 11.72 0.01 3.11 6.66 0.00 4.01
India 8.40 26.30 1.73 24.50 1.10 0.00 10.82
Major importers 8/ 42.77 42.93 32.86 73.77 3.01 0.02 41.77
Mexico 0.32 1.58 0.69 1.80 0.41 0.00 0.38
China 34.17 30.75 6.23 37.70 0.09 0.00 33.36
European Union 9/ 0.30 1.64 0.52 0.56 1.52 0.00 0.39
Turkey 1.92 4.90 4.19 7.50 0.86 0.02 2.63
Pakistan 1.93 3.90 4.50 8.70 0.10 0.00 1.53
Indonesia 0.46 3/ 1.66 1.75 0.02 0.00 0.36
Thailand 0.15 3/ 0.66 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bangladesh 2.28 0.15 7.00 7.70 0.00 0.00 1.73
Vietnam 1.02 3/ 6.47 6.45 0.00 0.00 1.05
===============================================================================
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2023/2024 2024/2025
prev Sep 12 prev Sep 12
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.23 10.23 11.17 11.17
Harvested 6.44 6.44 8.63 8.63
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 899 899 840 807
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.25 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 12.07 12.07 15.11 14.51
Imports 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 16.32 16.72 18.27 17.67
Domestic use 1.85 1.85 1.90 1.90
Exports, total 11.75 11.75 12.00 11.80
Use, total 13.60 13.60 13.90 13.70
Unaccounted 2/ -0.43 -0.03 -0.14 -0.03
Ending stocks 3.15 3.15 4.50 4.00
Avg. farm price 3/ 76.00 76.00 66.00 66.00
==========================================================================
Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2023 and Forecasted Sep 1, 2024
=============================================================================
Area Harvested Yield Production 1/
State ======================================================================
2023 2024 2023 Aug 1 2024 2023 Aug 1 2024
=============================================================================
1,000 Acres ==Pounds== == 1,000 Bales 2/ ==
Upland
AL 374.0 395.0 937 881 869 730.0 725.0 715.0
AZ 75.0 95.0 1,331 1,557 1,314 208.0 305.0 260.0
AR 505.0 640.0 1,295 1,238 1,238 1,362.0 1,650.0 1,650.0
CA 12.8 21.6 2,025 2,000 2,000 54.0 90.0 90.0
FL 87.0 84.0 612 657 657 111.0 115.0 115.0
GA 1,100.0 1,090.0 949 947 903 2,175.0 2,150.0 2,050.0
KS 94.0 120.0 761 760 720 149.0 190.0 180.0
LA 115.0 150.0 872 1,008 1,056 209.0 315.0 330.0
MS 395.0 515.0 1,083 1,118 1,118 891.0 1,200.0 1,200.0
MO 330.0 380.0 1,361 1,213 1,238 936.0 960.0 980.0
NM 17.0 27.0 649 889 889 23.0 50.0 50.0
NC 370.0 400.0 933 912 906 719.0 760.0 755.0
OK 180.0 315.0 560 655 533 210.0 430.0 350.0
SC 207.0 220.0 937 829 829 404.0 380.0 380.0
TN 260.0 250.0 1,250 1,056 1,114 677.0 550.0 580.0
TX 2,100.0 3,650.0 618 592 539 2,705.0 4,500.0 4,100.0
VA 80.0 90.0 1,122 987 960 187.0 185.0 180.0
U.S. 6,301.8 8,442.6 895 828 794 11,750.0 14,555.0 13,965.0
Amer-Pima
AZ 16.0 14.0 900 891 891 30.0 26.0 26.0
CA 82.0 135.0 1,346 1,582 1,582 230.0 445.0 445.0
NM 16.8 14.0 800 754 686 28.0 22.0 20.0
TX 23.0 29.0 584 993 927 28.0 60.0 56.0
U.S. 137.8 192.0 1,101 1,383 1,368 316.0 553.0 547.0
All
AL 374.0 395.0 937 881 869 730.0 725.0 715.0
AZ 91.0 109.0 1,255 1,471 1,259 238.0 331.0 286.0
AR 505.0 640.0 1,295 1,238 1,238 1,362.0 1,650.0 1,650.0
CA 94.8 156.6 1,438 1,640 1,640 284.0 535.0 535.0
FL 87.0 84.0 612 657 657 111.0 115.0 115.0
GA 1,100.0 1,090.0 949 947 903 2,175.0 2,150.0 2,050.0
KS 94.0 120.0 761 760 720 149.0 190.0 180.0
LA 115.0 150.0 872 1,008 1,056 209.0 315.0 330.0
MS 395.0 515.0 1,083 1,118 1,118 891.0 1,200.0 1,200.0
MO 330.0 380.0 1,361 1,213 1,238 936.0 960.0 980.0
NM 33.8 41.0 724 843 820 51.0 72.0 70.0
NC 370.0 400.0 933 912 906 719.0 760.0 755.0
OK 180.0 315.0 560 655 533 210.0 430.0 350.0
SC 207.0 220.0 937 829 829 404.0 380.0 380.0
TN 260.0 250.0 1,250 1,056 1,114 677.0 550.0 580.0
TX 2,123.0 3,679.0 618 595 542 2,733.0 4,560.0 4,156.0
VA 80.0 90.0 1,122 987 960 187.0 185.0 180.0
U.S. 6,439.6 8,634.6 899 840 807 12,066.0 15,108.0 14,512.0
=============================================================================
(2024-2025) (2025-2026)
=====current marketing year===== ====next year====
Week's net Week's Season's Season's Week's net Season's
Change in Export Export Total Change in Total
Commits Shipments Shipments Commits Commits Commits
==upland==
ALGERIA 0 0 0 4.4 0 0
BANGLADESH 8.2 10.5 42.2 235.4 0 0
CHINA -26.3 28.6 145.3 461.8 0 8.8
COSTA RICA 0.5 2.6 10.8 71.9 0 6.8
DJIBOUTI AFARS-ISSAS 0 2.3 2.3 2.3 0 0
ECUADOR 0 0.4 3.0 12.7 0 0
EL SALVADOR 1.3 3.4 17.5 182.7 0 66.4
GUATEMALA -2.4 1.4 25.3 213.8 0 43.4
HONDURAS 0 6.4 31.2 221.5 0 32.9
HONG KONG 0 0 0 1.7 0 0
INDIA 13.4 2.2 30.3 270.1 0 0
INDONESIA 4.6 1.8 12.6 132.4 0 0
ITALY 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
JAMAICA -1.3 0 0 0 0 0
JAPAN 0.1 2.0 6.4 48.9 0 8.8
KOREA REPUBLIC 5.3 0.6 7.6 83.3 0 0
MALAYSIA 0 0 1.4 128.5 0 0
MEXICO -1.0 5.2 39.1 537.7 0 132.4
NICARAGUA 0.3 0 8.0 27.1 0 0
PAKISTAN 27.5 16.0 122.8 986.6 0 0
PERU 2.3 1.5 25.5 70.7 0 0
PORTUGAL 0 0 2.7 11.3 0 0
SWITZERLAND 0 0 0 2.2 0 0
TAIWAN 6.7 1.1 3.7 17.1 0 0
THAILAND 1.7 1.2 20.7 95.1 0 0
TURKEY 4.8 6.9 45.8 429.6 0 48.4
VENEZUELA 4.4 0 0.3 4.9 0 0
VIETNAM 65.7 25.0 144.8 510.0 0 0
TOTAL KNOWN 116.1 119.1 749.2 4764.4 0 347.9
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 116.1 119.1 749.2 4764.4 0 347.9
==pima==
BAHRAIN 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
BANGLADESH 0.6 1.0 1.2 3.9 0 0
BRAZIL 0 0.4 0.4 0.9 0 0
CHINA 0 0.5 5.8 12.0 0 0
COLOMBIA 0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0 0
EGYPT 0 0 0 6.3 0 0
GERMANY 0 0 0.4 0.9 0 0
GUATEMALA 0.1 0 0.1 0.7 0 0
HONG KONG 0 0 0 0.6 0 0
INDIA 5.4 2.7 13.7 51.7 0 0
INDONESIA 0 0 0.4 0.8 0 0
ITALY 0 0 1.3 5.4 0 0
JAPAN 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.5 0 0
KOREA REPUBLIC 0 0 0.2 0.2 0 0
MALAYSIA 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0
MEXICO 0 0 0 0.1 0 0
PAKISTAN 2.9 0 3.0 8.5 0 0
PERU 1.5 1.1 3.8 17.0 0 0
SLOVENIA 0 0 0.2 0.2 0 0
TAIWAN 0 0 0.4 0.4 0 0
THAILAND 0 0.2 0.7 1.4 0 0
TURKEY 0 0 0.3 1.0 0 0
UNITED ARAB 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
VIETNAM 0 1.2 7.0 11.2 0 0
TOTAL KNOWN 10.6 7.4 39.9 126.2 0 0
TOTAL UNKNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAND TOTAL 10.6 7.4 39.9 126.2 0 0
END
