ICE No. 2 Cotton
MAY 10,2024
Open High Low Settle Change
July '24 78.38 78.58 76.65 77.31 -129
Oct '24 77.43 77.43 76.15 76.74 -101
Dec '24 76.27 76.46 74.71 75.13 -133
Mar '25 77.86 77.99 76.34 76.73 -128
May '25 78.85 78.86 77.64 78.00 -120
July '25 79.54 79.54 78.60 78.81 -104
Oct '25 - - - 75.77 -101
Dec '25 75.00 75.00 74.01 74.38 -66
Mar '26 - - - 75.35 -59
May '26 - - - 76.18 -56
ICE estimated futures volume: 29,800
７月限は小安く寄り付くとアジア時間は方向感なく推移。アメリカ時間に入り需給報告が発表されると77セントを下回る展開。
最終的には129ポイント安の77.31/LBで引けた。推定出来高は29,800枚。
【相場要因】
綿花相場は需給報告の発表を警戒してか薄商いとなった。
需給報告の内容は大方市場予想の範疇とみられるが、伯綿、インド綿の前期の期末在庫に下方修正が加えられた。
また今期の期末在庫がよりタイトになったにも関わらず手前の７月限が弱気に推移したことについても指摘されており今後の方向感が注目される。
また23/24年度では、インド綿、豪州綿の生産量が上方修正。消費量はインド、中国での増加が特筆されている。一方でパキスタン、バングラデシュ、トルコ、メキシコなどでは消費減。需給報告の詳細は後述。
実需面では下げ相場でバングラデシュなどの消費国から伯綿や西アフリカ綿といった引き合いが確認された。特に今週は韓国の紡績から伯綿の新綿の商売が報告されている。
【月間需給報告】
世界：輸入量は先月比+4万俵（4,398万俵）、輸出量は先月比+51万俵（4,448万俵）、期末在庫は先月比-213万俵（8,048万俵）
中国：輸入量は先月比+60万俵（1,480万俵）、消費量は先月比+50万俵（3,850万俵）、期末在庫は先月比+8万俵（4,113万俵）
ブラジル：輸出量は先月比+40万俵（1,210万俵）、期末在庫は先月比-204万俵（329万俵）
インド：生産量は先月比+50万俵（2,600万俵）、期末在庫は先月比-70万俵（1,152万俵）
パキスタン：輸入量は先月比-20万俵（280万俵）、消費量は先月比-20万俵（930万俵）
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2024/25 (Projected)
World
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 80.48 119.05 44.95 116.86 44.98 -0.37 83.01
World Less China
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 39.35 92.05 32.95 77.86 44.88 -0.37 41.98
United States
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.40 16.00 0.01 1.90 13.00 -0.20 3.70
Total foreign
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 78.08 103.05 44.94 114.96 31.98 -0.18 79.31
Major exporters 4/
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 26.56 59.83 2.22 34.43 27.77 -0.18 26.59
Central Asia 5/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 3.24 5.19 0.03 4.10 1.31 0.00 3.05
Afr Fr Z 6/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.33 5.12 3/ 0.10 4.90 0.00 1.45
S Hemis 7/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 10.12 24.05 0.15 4.36 19.13 -0.18 11.00
Australia Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 3.95 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.30 -0.18 3.81
Brazil Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 3.29 16.70 0.01 3.30 12.50 0.00 4.20
India Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 11.52 25.00 1.50 25.20 2.00 0.00 10.82
Major importers 8/
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 48.21 39.82 40.02 76.57 2.42 0.00 49.06
Mexico Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.25 0.80 0.90 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.25
China Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 41.13 27.00 12.00 39.00 0.10 0.00 41.03
European Union 9/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.46 1.36 0.55 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.55
Turkey Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.43 4.00 4.70 7.50 0.80 0.00 1.83
Pakistan Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.63 6.50 3.70 9.80 0.05 0.00 1.98
Indonesia Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.40 3/ 2.00 2.00 0.01 0.00 0.39
Thailand Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.10 3/ 0.40 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.09
Bangladesh Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.59 0.16 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 1.74
Vietnam Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.05 3/ 7.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 1.05
=============================================================================
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2023/24 (Estimated)
World 80.42 113.57 43.98 113.36 44.48 -0.35 80.48
World Less China 43.02 86.07 29.18 74.86 44.41 -0.35 39.35
United States 4.25 12.07 0.01 1.80 12.30 -0.18 2.40
Total Foreign 76.17 101.50 43.97 111.56 32.18 -0.18 78.08
Major exporters 4/ 27.38 58.61 1.66 33.62 27.65 -0.18 26.56
Central Asia 5/ 3.30 5.20 0.01 3.89 1.38 0.00 3.24
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 0.96 4.93 3/ 0.10 4.46 0.00 1.33
S Hemis 7/ 11.34 21.97 0.15 4.26 19.27 -0.18 10.12
Australia 4.78 5.00 3/ 0.01 6.00 -0.18 3.95
Brazil 4.01 14.57 0.01 3.20 12.10 0.00 3.29
India 11.32 26.00 1.00 24.70 2.10 0.00 11.52
Major importers 8/ 45.83 39.51 39.73 74.08 2.78 0.00 48.21
Mexico 0.38 0.90 0.60 1.40 0.23 0.00 0.25
China 37.40 27.50 14.80 38.50 0.08 0.00 41.13
European Union 9/ 0.39 1.05 0.52 0.55 0.95 0.00 0.46
Turkey 2.63 3.20 3.70 6.70 1.40 0.00 1.43
Pakistan 1.53 6.70 2.80 9.30 0.10 0.00 1.63
Indonesia 0.36 3/ 1.90 1.85 0.02 0.00 0.40
Thailand 0.14 3/ 0.43 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.10
Bangladesh 1.73 0.16 7.40 7.70 0.00 0.00 1.59
Vietnam 1.05 3/ 6.80 6.80 0.00 0.00 1.05
2022/23
World 74.50 116.31 37.65 111.67 37.11 -0.73 80.42
World Less China 36.44 85.61 31.42 74.17 37.01 -0.73 43.02
United States 4.05 14.47 3/ 2.05 12.77 -0.55 4.25
Total Foreign 70.45 101.84 37.65 109.62 24.34 -0.19 76.17
Major exporters 4/ 21.44 55.76 2.38 32.34 20.06 -0.20 27.38
Central Asia 5/ 2.43 5.54 0.01 3.55 1.13 0.00 3.30
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.01 4.02 3/ 0.10 3.98 0.00 0.96
S Hemis 7/ 9.19 19.32 0.14 4.12 13.39 -0.20 11.34
Australia 4.98 5.80 3/ 0.01 6.19 -0.20 4.78
Brazil 2.05 11.72 0.01 3.11 6.66 0.00 4.01
India 8.40 26.30 1.73 24.00 1.10 0.00 11.32
Major importers 8/ 46.67 42.88 32.86 73.57 3.01 0.02 45.83
Mexico 0.32 1.58 0.69 1.80 0.41 0.00 0.38
China 38.06 30.70 6.23 37.50 0.09 0.00 37.40
European Union 9/ 0.30 1.64 0.52 0.56 1.52 0.00 0.39
Turkey 1.92 4.90 4.19 7.50 0.86 0.02 2.63
Pakistan 1.93 3.90 4.50 8.70 0.10 0.00 1.53
Indonesia 0.46 3/ 1.66 1.75 0.02 0.00 0.36
Thailand 0.15 3/ 0.66 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bangladesh 2.28 0.15 7.00 7.70 0.00 0.00 1.73
Vietnam 1.02 3/ 6.47 6.45 0.00 0.00 1.05
===============================================================================
Cotton: Area Planted, Harvested, and Yield by Type,
State, and United States, 2022-23
====================================================================
Area Area
Type Planted Harvested Yield
And ============================================================
State 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
====================================================================
========== 1,000 Acres ======= ===== Pounds ====
Upland
AL 435.0 380.0 430.0 374.0 930 937
AZ 87.0 76.0 86.0 75.0 1,563 1,331
AR 640.0 510.0 625.0 505.0 1,189 1,295
CA 19.0 13.0 18.5 12.8 1,946 2,025
FL 106.0 89.0 103.0 87.0 769 612
GA 1,290.0 1,110.0 1,270.0 1,100.0 1,002 949
KS 163.0 112.0 136.0 94.0 586 761
LA 195.0 120.0 190.0 115.0 904 872
MS 530.0 400.0 525.0 395.0 1,084 1,083
MO 360.0 335.0 340.0 330.0 1,240 1,361
NM 66.0 32.0 29.0 17.0 993 649
NC 470.0 380.0 460.0 370.0 1,049 933
OK 660.0 420.0 220.0 180.0 663 560
SC 270.0 210.0 266.0 207.0 911 937
TN 335.0 265.0 325.0 260.0 1,053 1,250
TX 7,850.0 5,550.0 2,000.0 2,100.0 734 618
VA 91.0 81.0 90.0 80.0 1,131 1,122
U.S. 13,567.0 10,083.0 7,113.5 6,301.8 945 895
Amer Pima
AZ 15.0 16.0 14.4 16.0 933 900
CA 115.0 85.0 114.0 82.0 1,558 1,346
NM 19.0 17.0 18.7 16.8 719 800
TX 33.0 29.0 29.0 23.0 728 584
U.S. 182.0 147.0 176.1 137.8 1,281 1,101
All
AL 435.0 380.0 430.0 374.0 930 937
AZ 102.0 92.0 100.4 91.0 1,473 1,255
AR 640.0 510.0 625.0 505.0 1,189 1,295
CA 134.0 98.0 132.5 94.8 1,612 1,438
FL 106.0 89.0 103.0 87.0 769 612
GA 1,290.0 1,110.0 1,270.0 1,100.0 1,002 949
KS 163.0 112.0 136.0 94.0 586 761
LA 195.0 120.0 190.0 115.0 904 872
MS 530.0 400.0 525.0 395.0 1,084 1,083
MO 360.0 335.0 340.0 330.0 1,240 1,361
NM 85.0 49.0 47.7 33.8 886 724
NC 470.0 380.0 460.0 370.0 1,049 933
OK 660.0 420.0 220.0 180.0 663 560
SC 270.0 210.0 266.0 207.0 911 937
TN 335.0 265.0 325.0 260.0 1,053 1,250
TX 7,883.0 5,579.0 2,029.0 2,123.0 734 618
VA 91.0 81.0 90.0 80.0 1,131 1,122
U.S. 13,749.0 10,230.0 7,289.6 6,439.6 953 899
=====================================================================
Cotton: Production and Bales Ginned by Type,
State, and United States, 2022-23
============================================================================
Production in Lint- Bales Ginned in
Type 480-lb Net Weight seed 480-lb Net Weight
and Bales 1/ Ratio Bales 2/
State ================================================================
2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
============================================================================
---- 1,000 Bales --- -------- Bales --------
Upland
AL 833.0 730.0 (NA) (NA) 808,450 715,400
AZ 280.0 208.0 (NA) (NA) 265,800 189,250
AK 1,548.0 1,362.0 (NA) (NA) 1,678,000 1,529,250
CA 75.0 54.0 (NA) (NA) 93,300 72,200
FL 165.0 111.0 (NA) (NA) 134,250 95,350
GA 2,650.0 2,175.0 (NA) (NA) 2,694,150 2,203,850
KS 166.0 149.0 (NA) (NA) 121,850 126,550
LA 358.0 209.0 (NA) (NA) 365,000 212,250
MS 1,186.0 891.0 (NA) (NA) 1,160,200 850,150
MO 878.0 936.0 (NA) (NA) 774,850 811,250
NM 60.0 23.0 (NA) (NA) 28,300 16,450
NC 1,005.0 719.0 (NA) (NA) 1,065,650 773,650
OK 304.0 210.0 (NA) (NA) 171,900 142,950
SC 505.0 404.0 (NA) (NA) 441,650 339,250
TN 713.0 677.0 (NA) (NA) 706,500 668,100
TX 3,060.0 2,705.0 (NA) (NA) 3,253,850 2,792,650
VA 212.0 187.0 (NA) (NA) 208,700 190,500
U.S. 13,998.0 11,750.0 (NA) (NA) 13,972,400 11,729,050
American-Pima
AZ 28.0 30.0 (NA) (NA) 27,500 27,050
CA 370.0 230.0 (NA) (NA) 369,800 229,650
NM 28.0 28.0 (NA) (NA) 31,750 29,150
TX 44.0 28.0 (NA) (NA) 39,350 29,100
U.S. 470.0 316.0 (NA) (NA) 468,400 314,950
All
AL 833.0 730.0 (NA) (NA) 808,450 715,400
AZ 308.0 238.0 (NA) (NA) 293,300 216,300
AK 1,548.0 1,362.0 0.432 0.443 1,678,000 1,529,250
CA 445.0 284.0 (NA) (NA) 463,100 301,850
FL 165.0 111.0 (NA) (NA) 134,250 95,350
GA 2,650.0 2,175.0 0.456 0.455 2,694,150 2,203,850
KS 166.0 149.0 (NA) (NA) 121,850 126,550
LA 358.0 209.0 (NA) (NA) 365,000 212,250
MS 1,186.0 891.0 0.432 0.436 1,160,200 850,150
MO 878.0 936.0 (NA) (NA) 774,850 811,250
NM 88.0 51.0 (NA) (NA) 60,050 45,600
NC 1,005.0 719.0 (NA) (NA) 1,065,650 773,650
OK 304.0 210.0 (NA) (NA) 171,900 142,950
SC 505.0 404.0 (NA) (NA) 441,650 339,250
TN 713.0 677.0 (NA) (NA) 706,500 668,100
TX 3,104.0 2,733.0 0.442 0.445 3,293,200 2,821,750
VA 212.0 187.0 (NA) (NA) 208,700 190,500
U.S. 14,468.0 12,066.0 (NA) (NA) 14,440,800 12,044,000
============================================================================
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
========================================================================
Item 2023/2024 2024/2025
Apr May 10 Apr May 10
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.23 10.23 (NA) 10.67 *
Harvested 7.06 6.44 (NA) 9.13 *
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 822 899 (NA) 842 *
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.25 4.25 (NA) 2.40
Production 12.10 12.07 (NA) 16.00
Imports 0.01 0.01 (NA) 0.01
Supply, total 16.36 16.32 (NA) 18.41
Domestic use 1.75 1.80 (NA) 1.90
Exports 12.30 12.30 (NA) 13.00
Use, total 14.05 14.10 (NA) 14.90
Unaccounted 2/ -0.20 -0.18 (NA) -0.20
Ending stocks 2.50 2.40 (NA) 3.70
Avg. frm prc 3/ 76.00 76.00 (NA) 74.00
=========================================================================
==============================================================================
Yield Production
Crop Unit =============================================
2023 2024 2023 2024
==============================================================================
======= 1,000 =======
Grains & Hay
Barley bushels: 72.4 185,036.0
Corn for Grain bushels: 177.3 15,341,595.0
Corn for Silage tons: 20.1 129,994.0
Hay, All tons: 2.3 118,769.0
Alfalfa tons: 3.2 49,916.0
All Other tons: 1.9 68,853.0
Oats bushels: 68.6 57,045.0
Proso Millet bushels: 34.2 19,572.0
Rice 2/ cwt: 7,649.0 218,291.0
Rye bushels: 32.2 10,375.0
Sorghum for Grain bushels: 52.0 317,745.0
Sorghum for Silage tons: 13.0 4,981.0
Wheat, All bushels: 48.6 1,811,977.0
Winter bushels: 50.6 50.7 1,247,748.0 1,277,695.0
Durum bushels: 37.0 59,329.0
Other Spring bushels: 46.0 504,900.0
Oilseeds
Canola pounds: 1,793.0 4,157,420.0
Cottonseed tons: (X) 3,644.0
Flaxseed bushels: 18.5 2,961.0
Mustard Seed pounds: 627.0 149,305.0
Peanuts pounds: 3,742.0 5,890,020.0
Rapeseed pounds: 2,003.0 20,230.0
Safflower pounds: 1,036.0 130,570.0
Soybeans for Beans bushels: 50.6 4,164,677.0
Sunflower pounds: 1,786.0 2,263,520.0
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops
Cotton, All 2/ bales: 899.0 12,066.0
Upland 2/ bales: 895.0 11,750.0
Amer-Pima 2/ bales: 1,101.0 316.0
Sugarbeets tons: 31.2 35,226.0
Sugarcane tons: 36.3 33,766.0
Tobacco pounds: 2,305.0 432,452.0
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils
Dry Edible Beans 2/ cwt: 2,067.0 23,910.0
Dry Edible Peas 2/ cwt: 1,922.0 18,086.0
Lentils 2/ cwt: 1,098.0 5,742.0
Potatoes & Misc.
Hops pounds: 1,915.0 104,042.5
Peppermint Oil pounds: 90.0 2,811.0
Potatoes cwt: 459.0 440,750.0
Spearmint Oil pounds: 126.0 1,541.0
==============================================================================
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Yield in pounds.
END
