ICE COTTON FUTURES
NOVEMBER 8, 2019
Open High Low Close Change
Dec 19 64.35 65.06 63.61 64.72 +37
Mar 20 65.93 66.93 65.50 66.57 +53
May 20 67.18 68.14 66.71 67.77 +42
Jul 20 68.46 69.22 67.84 68.87 +33
Oct 20 69.38 69.38 69.38 69.22 +178
Dec 20 68.32 69.19 67.74 68.59 +27
Mar 21 69.58 69.58 69.26 68.99 +32
May 21 69.77 69.77 69.77 69.34 +27
Jul 21 70.48 70.48 70.31 69.84 +27
Oct 21 - - - 67.94 +5
ICE estimated futures volume:75,300
NY定期3月限は、寄り付きからしばらくは動意薄で推移してたが、米国での取引が徐々に本格的になるにつれて、値を下げ本日の安値を付けた。その後、取引終盤にかけて値を上げていき、前日比53ポイント高の66.57/LBで引けた。出来高は、75,300枚。
期近3月限は、週間で93ポイント値を上げている。
【相場動向要因】
期近12月限の第1回受渡通知日を、現地11月22日に控え、ポジション限月乗り換えやポジション整理の動きが進んでいる様子。
本日は大手投機筋による5日間にわたるポジション限月の2日目となった。
中国高官が、現地11月8日に、米中双方が報復関税を段階的に撤廃することで合意した発表したことに対して、
米国トランプ大統領は、合意には至っていないとのコメントを発表した。
この報道を受けて、棉花相場は下落し、期近3月限は本日の安値を付けた。
その後、米国農務省より月間需給報告が発表されたことで、強気材料として作用し、最終的に値を上げて引ける結果となった。
本日発表された米国農務省月間需給報告では、2019/2020CROPの米棉全体の予想生産量は、テキサス州の生産量が約70万俵下方修正されたことなどにより、前回発表より約89万俵下方修正され、20.82百万俵と発表されている。
一方で、輸出量などは前回発表から据え置きとなっており、期末在庫は前回発表から約90万俵下方修正されている。
世界全体でみると、2019/2020CROPの世界の原綿予想生産量は、米棉、インド棉、パキスタン棉などの予想生産量が下方修正されたことから、前回発表から約2.83百万俵下方修正され、121.94百万俵となった。
豪州棉の生産量は、前回から据え置きで、1.20百万俵と報告されている。
米国農務省月間需給報告の詳細は以下の通り；
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton/Cottonseed-Nov 8
Fri Nov 08 12:06:37 2019 EDT
Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2018 and Forecasted Nov 1, 2019
=============================================================================
Area Harvested Yield Production 1/
State ======================================================================
2018 2019 2018 Oct 1 2019 2018 Oct 1 2019
=============================================================================
1,000 Acres ==Pounds== == 1,000 Bales 2/ ==
Upland
AL 497.0 535.0 858 951 969 888.0 1,060.0 1,080.0
AZ 159.0 159.0 1,319 1,525 1,555 437.0 505.0 515.0
AR 480.0 610.0 1,133 1,157 1,102 1,133.0 1,470.0 1,400.0
CA 47.0 54.0 1,910 1,742 1,778 187.0 196.0 200.0
FL 93.0 111.0 532 930 930 103.0 215.0 215.0
GA 1,305.0 1,390.0 719 932 932 1,955.0 2,700.0 2,700.0
KS 152.0 160.0 1,077 960 840 341.0 320.0 280.0
LA 189.0 270.0 1,067 1,013 1,031 420.0 570.0 580.0
MS 615.0 710.0 1,141 1,115 1,082 1,462.0 1,650.0 1,600.0
MO 322.0 368.0 1,373 1,265 1,265 921.0 970.0 970.0
NM 56.0 45.0 977 1,120 1,173 114.0 105.0 110.0
NC 415.0 495.0 812 921 931 702.0 950.0 960.0
OK 550.0 575.0 595 701 609 682.0 840.0 730.0
SC 275.0 295.0 733 765 814 420.0 470.0 500.0
TN 355.0 400.0 1,041 1,128 1,116 770.0 940.0 930.0
TX 4,350.0 6,000.0 756 624 568 6,850.0 7,800.0 7,100.0
VA 97.0 104.0 896 1,015 923 181.0 220.0 200.0
U.S. 9,957.0 12,281.0 847 820 784 17,566.0 20,981.0 20,070.0
Amer-Pima
AZ 14.5 8.0 943 1,020 1,020 28.5 17.0 17.0
CA 210.0 204.0 1,662 1,593 1,647 727.0 677.0 700.0
NM 6.8 5.4 812 800 800 11.5 9.0 9.0
TX 17.5 11.0 933 916 916 34.0 21.0 21.0
U.S. 248.8 228.4 1,545 1,522 1,570 801.0 724.0 747.0
All
AL 497.0 535.0 858 951 969 888.0 1,060.0 1,080.0
AZ 173.5 167.0 1,288 1,500 1,529 465.5 522.0 532.0
AR 480.0 610.0 1,133 1,157 1,102 1,133.0 1,470.0 1,400.0
CA 257.0 258.0 1,707 1,624 1,674 914.0 873.0 900.0
FL 93.0 111.0 532 930 930 103.0 215.0 215.0
GA 1,305.0 1,390.0 719 932 932 1,955.0 2,700.0 2,700.0
KS 152.0 160.0 1,077 960 840 341.0 320.0 280.0
LA 189.0 270.0 1,067 1,013 1,031 420.0 570.0 580.0
MS 615.0 710.0 1,141 1,115 1,082 1,462.0 1,650.0 1,600.0
MO 322.0 368.0 1,373 1,265 1,265 921.0 970.0 970.0
NM 62.8 50.4 959 1,086 1,133 125.5 114.0 119.0
NC 415.0 495.0 812 921 931 702.0 950.0 960.0
OK 550.0 575.0 595 701 609 682.0 840.0 730.0
SC 275.0 295.0 733 765 814 420.0 470.0 500.0
TN 355.0 400.0 1,041 1,128 1,116 770.0 940.0 930.0
TX 4,367.5 6,011.0 757 625 569 6,884.0 7,821.0 7,121.0
VA 97.0 104.0 896 1,015 923 181.0 220.0 200.0
U.S. 10,205.8 12,509.4 864 833 799 18,367.0 21,705.0 20,817.0
=============================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2019/20 (Projected)
World
Oct 80.73 124.77 42.90 121.61 42.91 0.19 83.69
Nov 80.55 121.94 44.03 121.49 44.03 0.20 80.80
World Less China
Oct 45.06 97.02 33.40 82.11 42.74 0.19 50.45
Nov 44.88 94.69 34.53 81.99 43.85 0.20 48.06
United States
Oct 4.85 21.71 0.01 3.00 16.50 0.06 7.00
Nov 4.85 20.82 0.01 3.00 16.50 0.07 6.10
Total foreign
Oct 75.88 103.07 42.90 118.61 26.41 0.13 76.69
Nov 75.70 101.12 44.03 118.49 27.53 0.13 74.70
Major exporters 4/
Oct 29.23 57.09 2.28 33.94 22.43 0.02 32.21
Nov 28.95 56.44 2.48 33.75 23.13 0.02 30.97
Central Asia 5/ Oct 2.52 5.40 3/ 3.99 1.53 0.00 2.40
Nov 2.47 5.25 3/ 4.04 1.53 0.00 2.15
Afr Fr Z 6/ Oct 1.37 5.89 3/ 0.14 5.41 0.00 1.71
Nov 1.37 5.89 3/ 0.14 5.66 0.00 1.46
S Hemis 7/ Oct 15.09 14.82 0.18 4.40 11.19 0.01 14.49
Nov 14.82 14.82 0.18 4.38 11.54 0.01 13.89
Australia Oct 1.57 1.20 3/ 0.04 1.70 0.00 1.04
Nov 1.57 1.20 3/ 0.04 1.70 0.00 1.04
Brazil Oct 12.01 11.60 0.03 3.40 8.30 0.00 11.94
Nov 11.78 11.60 0.03 3.40 8.60 0.00 11.41
India Oct 10.03 30.50 1.60 24.75 4.00 0.00 13.38
Nov 10.01 30.00 1.80 24.50 4.10 0.00 13.21
Major importers 8/
Oct 44.89 42.93 38.13 80.49 2.70 0.11 42.64
Nov 44.80 41.63 38.97 80.54 2.84 0.11 41.90
Mexico Oct 0.77 1.58 0.85 2.00 0.45 0.03 0.72
Nov 0.77 1.58 0.85 2.00 0.45 0.03 0.72
China Oct 35.67 27.75 9.50 39.50 0.18 0.00 33.25
Nov 35.67 27.25 9.50 39.50 0.18 0.00 32.75
EU-27 9/ Oct 0.24 1.76 0.68 0.71 1.67 0.03 0.27
Nov 0.23 1.86 0.65 0.69 1.76 0.03 0.26
Turkey Oct 1.69 4.10 3.20 6.90 0.35 0.00 1.74
Nov 1.59 3.80 3.80 7.10 0.35 0.00 1.74
Pakistan Oct 2.50 7.60 3.10 10.70 0.05 0.03 2.42
Nov 2.50 7.00 3.60 10.70 0.10 0.03 2.27
Indonesia Oct 0.51 3/ 3.30 3.20 0.01 0.00 0.61
Nov 0.53 3/ 3.10 3.10 0.01 0.00 0.53
Thailand Oct 0.18 3/ 1.05 1.03 0.00 0.03 0.18
Nov 0.18 3/ 1.05 1.03 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh Oct 1.78 0.14 7.30 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.81
Nov 1.78 0.14 7.30 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.81
Vietnam Oct 1.19 3/ 7.50 7.40 0.00 0.00 1.29
Nov 1.19 3/ 7.50 7.40 0.00 0.00 1.29
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2018/19 (Estimated)
World 80.94 118.80 42.50 120.29 41.28 0.12 80.55
World Less China 42.95 91.05 32.86 80.79 41.07 0.12 44.88
United States 4.20 18.37 3/ 2.98 14.76 -0.02 4.85
Total Foreign 76.74 100.43 42.50 117.31 26.52 0.14 75.70
Major exporters 4/ 26.94 54.83 2.50 32.99 22.31 0.02 28.95
Central Asia 5/ 2.77 5.44 3/ 3.80 1.95 0.00 2.47
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.70 5.36 3/ 0.14 5.55 0.00 1.37
S Hemis 7/ 13.01 16.89 0.18 4.39 10.86 0.01 14.82
Australia 3.04 2.20 3/ 0.04 3.63 0.00 1.57
Brazil 8.66 12.52 0.02 3.40 6.01 0.00 11.78
India 9.23 26.50 1.80 24.00 3.51 0.00 10.01
Major importers 8/ 47.95 42.65 37.46 80.16 2.99 0.11 44.80
Mexico 0.66 1.74 0.85 1.95 0.50 0.03 0.77
China 37.99 27.75 9.64 39.50 0.21 0.00 35.67
EU-27 9/ 0.30 1.72 0.64 0.69 1.72 0.03 0.23
Turkey 1.78 3.70 3.50 6.90 0.48 0.00 1.59
Pakistan 2.83 7.60 2.85 10.70 0.06 0.03 2.50
Indonesia 0.63 3/ 3.05 3.15 0.01 0.00 0.53
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.08 1.08 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh 1.86 0.14 7.20 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.78
Vietnam 1.29 3/ 6.90 7.00 0.00 0.00 1.19
2017/18
World 80.29 123.78 41.16 122.76 41.41 0.12 80.94
World Less China 34.37 96.28 35.45 81.76 41.28 0.12 42.95
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 16.28 -0.03 4.20
Total Foreign 77.54 102.86 41.16 119.54 25.14 0.15 76.74
Major exporters 4/ 21.90 57.10 2.47 32.75 21.76 0.02 26.94
Central Asia 5/ 2.18 6.50 3/ 3.38 2.53 0.00 2.77
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.46 5.44 3/ 0.14 5.06 0.00 1.70
S Hemis 7/ 10.18 15.70 0.24 4.44 8.65 0.01 13.01
Australia 2.19 4.80 3/ 0.04 3.92 0.00 3.04
Brazil 6.93 9.22 0.08 3.40 4.17 0.00 8.66
India 7.88 29.00 1.68 24.15 5.18 0.00 9.23
Major importers 8/ 54.18 42.93 36.05 82.74 2.35 0.12 47.95
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.66
China 45.92 27.50 5.71 41.00 0.14 0.00 37.99
EU-27 9/ 0.19 1.53 0.73 0.75 1.37 0.04 0.30
Turkey 1.53 4.00 4.02 7.45 0.33 0.00 1.78
Pakistan 2.32 8.20 3.40 10.90 0.16 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.52 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.63
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.15 1.13 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 7.00 6.60 0.00 0.00 1.29
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
END.
