2019年6月12日水曜日

NY FUTURES JUNE 11,2019

ICE COTTON FUTURES

June 11, 2019

       Open  High  Low   Close Change

Jul 19 66.14 66.36 65.29 65.65 -.34

Oct 19 65.57 65.69 65.02 65.46 -.41

Dec 19 65.57 66.03 64.70 65.04 -.53

Mar 20 66.38 66.87 65.51 65.91 -.50

May 20 67.60 67.60 66.41 66.77 -.50

Jul 20 67.29 67.58 66.96 67.32 -.50

Oct 20   -     -     -   66.71 -.46

Dec 20 65.75 65.75 65.51 65.90 -.40

Mar 21   -     -     -   66.85 -.40

May 21   -     -     -   67.85 -.40

ICE estimated futures volume: 51,900

 

 

NY定期7月限は、寄付きから方向感なく小幅な値動きで推移し、最終的に前日比34ポイント安の65.65/LBで引けた。また、期近12月限は、前日比53ポイント安の65.04/LBで引けている。出来高は、51,900枚。

本日は大手投機筋による5日間にわたるポジション限月乗換の4日目となった。

期近7月限が現地624日に第一回受渡通知日を控えており、ポジション整理の動きも進んでいるものと思われる。

本日米国農務省月間需給報告が発表された。2019/2020CROPの米棉の生産量や期末在庫の数字は前回発表から据え置きとなった。詳細は下記に記載する。

米国現地613日には、米国農務省週間輸出成約報告が発表される予定。

 

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Jun 11

 

Tue Jun 11 12:02:50 2019 EDT

 

                                    U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/

=========================================================================

Item                        2018/2019                   2019/2020

                        prev        Jun 11          prev         Jun 11

==========================================================================

Area

                        Million acres

Planted                 14.10        14.10        13.78 *        13.78 *

Harvested               10.21        10.21        12.54 *        12.54 *

                        Pounds

Yield per harv. acre      864          864          842 *          842 *

                        Million 480 pound bales

Beginning stocks         4.30         4.30           4.65           4.65

Production              18.37        18.37          22.00          22.00

Imports                  0.01         0.01           0.01           0.01

Supply, total           22.67        22.67          26.66          26.66

Domestic use             3.10         3.10           3.10           3.10

Exports                 14.75        14.75          17.00          17.00

Use, total              17.85        17.85          20.10          20.10

Unaccounted 2/           0.17         0.17           0.16           0.16

Ending stocks            4.65         4.65           6.40           6.40

Avg. farm price 3/      70.00        70.00          65.00          64.00

==========================================================================

1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals

may not add due to rounding.  2/ Reflects the difference between the

previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks.  3/ Cents per

pound for upland cotton.

Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long

staple; marketing year beginning August 1.  Totals may not add due to

rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply

less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.

*Planted area as reported in March 29  2019 Prospective Plantings.  Harvested

area based on 10-year average abandonment by region  with the Southwest

adjusted to reflect favorable moisture conditions.  Yield based on 5-year

average yields by region.

 

 

 

 

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Jun 11

 

Tue Jun 11 12:02:17 2019 EDT

 

                               World Cotton Supply and Use 1/

                                (Million 480-pound bales)

=============================================================================

                     beginning                domestic exports         ending

                       stocks   prod  imports    use     use   loss 2/ stocks

=============================================================================

                                           2019/20 (Projected)

World

                  May   76.47  125.45   45.35  125.93   45.35    0.31   75.69

                  Jun   77.53  125.32   44.74  125.27   44.75    0.31   77.26

World Less China

                  May   42.85   97.70   34.35   84.43   45.22    0.31   44.94

                  Jun   43.16   97.57   34.24   84.27   44.63    0.31   45.76

United States

                  May    4.65   22.00    0.01    3.10   17.00    0.16    6.40

                  Jun    4.65   22.00    0.01    3.10   17.00    0.16    6.40

Total foreign

                  May   71.82  103.45   45.35  122.83   28.35    0.16   69.29

                  Jun   72.88  103.32   44.74  122.17   27.75    0.16   70.86

Major exporters 4/

                  May   26.42   56.97    2.14   34.81   24.18    0.02   26.51

                  Jun   26.73   56.78    2.14   34.81   23.64    0.02   27.18

Central Asia 5/   May    2.30    5.57      3/    3.99    1.79    0.00    2.10

                  Jun    2.29    5.82      3/    3.99    1.79    0.00    2.33

Afr Fr Z 6/       May    1.64    6.01      3/    0.14    5.70    0.00    1.81

                  Jun    1.59    6.01      3/    0.14    5.61    0.00    1.85

S Hemis 7/        May   15.09   16.40    0.21    4.67   11.93    0.01   15.09

                  Jun   14.86   15.97    0.21    4.67   11.17    0.01   15.19

Australia         May    1.30    2.20      3/    0.04    2.40    0.00    1.07

                  Jun    1.20    1.90      3/    0.04    1.80    0.00    1.27

Brazil            May   12.21   12.00    0.08    3.60    8.20    0.00   12.48

                  Jun   12.21   12.00    0.08    3.60    8.20    0.00   12.48

India             May    7.13   28.50    1.40   25.30    4.50    0.00    7.23

                  Jun    7.78   28.50    1.40   25.30    4.80    0.00    7.58

Major importers 8/

                  May   43.43   43.52   40.60   83.79    2.90    0.14   40.72

                  Jun   44.23   43.52   40.00   83.09    2.88    0.14   41.65

Mexico            May    0.72    1.75    0.85    2.00    0.55    0.03    0.75

                  Jun    0.72    1.75    0.85    2.00    0.55    0.03    0.75

China             May   33.62   27.75   11.00   41.50    0.13    0.00   30.74

                  Jun   34.37   27.75   10.50   41.00    0.13    0.00   31.49

EU-27 9/          May    0.31    1.78    0.67    0.73    1.69    0.05    0.29

                  Jun    0.26    1.78    0.67    0.73    1.67    0.05    0.26

Turkey            May    1.53    4.10    3.00    6.70    0.38    0.00    1.55

                  Jun    1.63    4.10    3.00    6.70    0.38    0.00    1.65

Pakistan          May    2.78    8.00    2.90   10.70    0.15    0.03    2.81

                  Jun    2.83    8.00    2.90   10.70    0.15    0.03    2.86

Indonesia         May    0.61      3/    3.20    3.20    0.01    0.00    0.61

                  Jun    0.61      3/    3.20    3.20    0.01    0.00    0.61

Thailand          May    0.20      3/    1.18    1.15    0.00    0.03    0.21

                  Jun    0.20      3/    1.18    1.15    0.00    0.03    0.21

Bangladesh        May    1.98    0.14    8.40    8.40    0.00    0.01    2.11

                  Jun    1.98    0.14    8.30    8.30    0.00    0.01    2.11

Vietnam           May    1.29      3/    7.60    7.60    0.00    0.00    1.29

                  Jun    1.24      3/    7.60    7.50    0.00    0.00    1.34

=============================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade

   may not balance due to rounding and other factors.       2/ Generally

   reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia

   Brazil  China  and the United States  reflects the difference between

   implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending

   stocks.  3/ Less than 5 000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in

   addition to the countries and regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan  Kazakhstan

   Kyrgyzstan  Tajikistan  Turkmenistan  and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin  Burkina

   Faso  Cameroon  Central African Republic  Chad  Cote d'Ivoire  Mali  Niger

    Senegal  and Togo.  7/ Argentina  Australia  Brazil  Lesotho  South

   Africa  Tanzania  Zambia  and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries

   and regions listed  includes Japan  Russia  South Korea  and Taiwan. 9/

   Includes intra-EU trade.a

 

 

 

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2

 

Tue Jun 11 12:02:41 2019 EDT

 

                      World Cotton Supply and Use 1/  (continued)

                              (Million 480-pound bales)

===============================================================================

                 beginning                  domestic  exports            ending

                   stocks     prod  imports      use      use   loss 2/  stocks

===============================================================================

                                           2018/19 (Estimated)

World               80.94   118.87    42.46   122.31    42.10     0.33    77.53

World Less China    42.92    91.12    33.71    82.31    41.95     0.33    43.16

United States        4.30    18.37     0.01     3.10    14.75     0.17     4.65

Total Foreign       76.64   100.50    42.45   119.21    27.35     0.16    72.88

Major exporters 4/  26.94    54.88     2.19    33.86    23.40     0.02    26.73

Central Asia 5/      2.71     5.48       3/     3.70     2.20     0.00     2.29

Afr. Fr. Zone 6/     1.70     5.41       3/     0.14     5.37     0.00     1.59

S Hemis 7/          13.07    17.36     0.19     4.56    11.19     0.01    14.86

Australia            3.04     2.40       3/     0.04     4.20     0.00     1.20

Brazil               8.66    12.80     0.05     3.50     5.80     0.00    12.21

India                9.23    26.00     1.55    24.80     4.20     0.00     7.78

Major importers 8/  47.86    42.70    37.72    81.13     2.78     0.14    44.23

Mexico               0.66     1.69     0.85     1.95     0.50     0.03     0.72

China               38.02    27.75     8.75    40.00     0.15     0.00    34.37

EU-27 9/             0.25     1.72     0.69     0.75     1.60     0.05     0.26

Turkey               1.78     3.70     3.20     6.60     0.45     0.00     1.63

Pakistan             2.83     7.70     3.00    10.60     0.08     0.03     2.83

Indonesia            0.62       3/     3.10     3.10     0.01     0.00     0.61

Thailand             0.20       3/     1.18     1.15     0.00     0.03     0.20

Bangladesh           1.86     0.14     8.00     8.00     0.00     0.01     1.98

Vietnam              1.24       3/     7.10     7.10     0.00     0.00     1.24

                                           2017/18

World               80.31   123.78    41.02   122.68    41.02     0.47    80.94

World Less China    34.39    96.28    35.29    81.68    40.89     0.47    42.92

United States        2.75    20.92       3/     3.23    15.85     0.30     4.30

Total Foreign       77.56   102.86    41.02   119.45    25.17     0.17    76.64

Major exporters 4/  21.94    57.10     2.46    32.75    21.79     0.02    26.94

Central Asia 5/      2.18     6.50       3/     3.38     2.60     0.00     2.71

Afr. Fr. Zone 6/     1.46     5.44       3/     0.14     5.06     0.00     1.70

S Hemis 7/          10.21    15.70     0.24     4.44     8.63     0.01    13.07

Australia            2.19     4.80       3/     0.04     3.92     0.00     3.04

Brazil               6.93     9.22     0.08     3.40     4.17     0.00     8.66

India                7.88    29.00     1.68    24.15     5.18     0.00     9.23

Major importers 8/  54.17    42.93    35.91    82.66     2.34     0.15    47.86

Mexico               0.45     1.56     0.93     1.90     0.35     0.03     0.66

China               45.92    27.50     5.73    41.00     0.13     0.00    38.02

EU-27 9/             0.18     1.53     0.73     0.76     1.37     0.06     0.25

Turkey               1.53     4.00     4.02     7.45     0.33     0.00     1.78

Pakistan             2.32     8.20     3.30    10.80     0.16     0.03     2.83

Indonesia            0.62       3/     3.50     3.50     0.01     0.00     0.62

Thailand             0.20       3/     1.15     1.13     0.00     0.03     0.20

Bangladesh           1.63     0.14     7.60     7.50     0.00     0.01     1.86

Vietnam              0.88       3/     6.95     6.60     0.00     0.00     1.24

===============================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade

   may not balance due to rounding and other factors.       2/ Generally

   reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia

   Brazil  China  and the United States  reflects the difference between

   implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending

   stocks.  3/ Less than 5 000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in

   addition to the countries and regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan  Kazakhstan

   Kyrgyzstan  Tajikistan  Turkmenistan  and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin  Burkina

   Faso  Cameroon  Central African Republic  Chad  Cote d'Ivoire  Mali  Niger

    Senegal  and Togo.  7/ Argentina  Australia  Brazil  Lesotho  South

   Africa  Tanzania  Zambia  and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries

   and regions listed  includes Japan  Russia  South Korea  and Taiwan. 9/

   Includes intra-EU trade.

 

 

 

 

END.