ICE COTTON FUTURES
May 10, 2019
Open High Low Close Change
Jul 19 70.31 71.52 68.35 68.45 -1.78
Oct 19 71.00 71.00 69.86 69.65 -1.12
Dec 19 70.58 71.61 69.30 69.40 -1.17
Mar 20 72.20 72.34 70.30 70.37 -1.07
May 20 72.20 72.59 70.80 70.86 -.84
Jul 20 71.77 71.77 70.99 71.06 -.74
Oct 20 - - - 70.29 -.81
Dec 20 70.10 70.18 68.80 68.85 -.71
Mar 20 71.47 71.47 71.25 70.10 -.71
May 21 - - - 70.35 -.71
ICE estimated futures volume: 44,800
NY定期7月限は、寄付きからしばらくは小幅な値動きで少しずつ値を下げながら推移したが、米国農務省月間需給報告が発表されると一気に値を下げ、最終的に前日比178ポイント安の68.45/LBで引けた。出来高は、44,800枚。
本日発表された米国農務省月間需給報告では、2019/2020CROPの米棉の予想生産量が、約2,200万俵になり、期末在庫も640万俵と報告されている。2018/2019CROPの生産量は、1,837万俵と報告されており、2019/2020CROPは、前年比約20%増の見込みとなっている。
この発表を受けて、棉花相場は大きく値を下げる形となった。
また、米中貿易戦争において、両国の通商協議が物別れに終わる形となったのもの、弱気材料として影響したものと思われる。
両国の通商協議について、米国側からは、「生産的な協議であった」とのコメントもあったようだが、依然として、先行き不透明な状況が続いている。
米国農務省月間需給報告の詳細は以下の通り：
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - May 10
Fri May 10 12:04:12 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2019/20 (Projected)
World
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 76.47 125.45 45.35 125.93 45.35 0.31 75.69
World Less China
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 42.85 97.70 34.35 84.43 45.22 0.31 44.94
United States
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 4.65 22.00 0.01 3.10 17.00 0.16 6.40
Total foreign
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 71.82 103.45 45.35 122.83 28.35 0.16 69.29
Major exporters 4/
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 26.42 56.97 2.14 34.81 24.18 0.02 26.51
Central Asia 5/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.30 5.57 3/ 3.99 1.79 0.00 2.10
Afr Fr Z 6/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.64 6.01 3/ 0.14 5.70 0.00 1.81
S Hemis 7/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 15.09 16.40 0.21 4.67 11.93 0.01 15.09
Australia Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.30 2.20 3/ 0.04 2.40 0.00 1.07
Brazil Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 12.21 12.00 0.08 3.60 8.20 0.00 12.48
India Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 7.13 28.50 1.40 25.30 4.50 0.00 7.23
Major importers 8/
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 43.43 43.52 40.60 83.79 2.90 0.14 40.72
Mexico Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.72 1.75 0.85 2.00 0.55 0.03 0.75
China Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 33.62 27.75 11.00 41.50 0.13 0.00 30.74
EU-27 9/ Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.31 1.78 0.67 0.73 1.69 0.05 0.29
Turkey Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.53 4.10 3.00 6.70 0.38 0.00 1.55
Pakistan Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 2.78 8.00 2.90 10.70 0.15 0.03 2.81
Indonesia Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.61 3/ 3.20 3.20 0.01 0.00 0.61
Thailand Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 0.20 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.21
Bangladesh Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.98 0.14 8.40 8.40 0.00 0.01 2.11
Vietnam Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 1.29 3/ 7.60 7.60 0.00 0.00 1.29
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2
Fri May 10 12:04:42 2019 EDT
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
===============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
===============================================================================
2018/19 (Estimated)
World 81.08 118.43 42.03 122.71 42.03 0.33 76.47
World Less China 43.06 90.68 33.53 82.21 41.88 0.33 42.85
United States 4.30 18.37 0.01 3.10 14.75 0.17 4.65
Total Foreign 76.78 100.07 42.02 119.61 27.28 0.16 71.82
Major exporters 4/ 27.11 54.51 2.06 33.89 23.36 0.02 26.42
Central Asia 5/ 2.71 5.48 3/ 3.70 2.19 0.00 2.30
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.87 5.41 3/ 0.14 5.50 0.00 1.64
S Hemis 7/ 13.07 17.49 0.19 4.56 11.09 0.01 15.09
Australia 3.04 2.50 3/ 0.04 4.20 0.00 1.30
Brazil 8.66 12.80 0.05 3.50 5.80 0.00 12.21
India 9.23 25.50 1.40 24.80 4.20 0.00 7.13
Major importers 8/ 47.81 42.70 37.37 81.53 2.78 0.14 43.43
Mexico 0.66 1.69 0.85 1.95 0.50 0.03 0.72
China 38.02 27.75 8.50 40.50 0.15 0.00 33.62
EU-27 9/ 0.25 1.72 0.69 0.75 1.55 0.05 0.31
Turkey 1.78 3.70 3.00 6.50 0.45 0.00 1.53
Pakistan 2.83 7.70 3.00 10.60 0.13 0.03 2.78
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.20 3.20 0.01 0.00 0.61
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.18 1.15 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.86 0.14 8.00 8.00 0.00 0.01 1.98
Vietnam 1.19 3/ 7.10 7.00 0.00 0.00 1.29
2017/18
World 80.42 123.78 41.05 122.77 40.93 0.47 81.08
World Less China 34.50 96.28 35.32 81.77 40.80 0.47 43.06
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 15.85 0.30 4.30
Total Foreign 77.67 102.86 41.05 119.54 25.08 0.17 76.78
Major exporters 4/ 22.03 57.10 2.46 32.75 21.72 0.02 27.11
Central Asia 5/ 2.18 6.50 3/ 3.38 2.60 0.00 2.71
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ 1.55 5.44 3/ 0.14 4.99 0.00 1.87
S Hemis 7/ 10.21 15.70 0.24 4.44 8.63 0.01 13.07
Australia 2.19 4.80 3/ 0.04 3.92 0.00 3.04
Brazil 6.93 9.22 0.08 3.40 4.17 0.00 8.66
India 7.88 29.00 1.68 24.15 5.18 0.00 9.23
Major importers 8/ 54.17 42.93 35.96 82.76 2.34 0.15 47.81
Mexico 0.45 1.56 0.93 1.90 0.35 0.03 0.66
China 45.92 27.50 5.73 41.00 0.13 0.00 38.02
EU-27 9/ 0.18 1.53 0.73 0.76 1.37 0.06 0.25
Turkey 1.53 4.00 4.02 7.45 0.33 0.00 1.78
Pakistan 2.32 8.20 3.30 10.80 0.16 0.03 2.83
Indonesia 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.62
Thailand 0.20 3/ 1.15 1.13 0.00 0.03 0.20
Bangladesh 1.63 0.14 7.60 7.50 0.00 0.01 1.86
Vietnam 0.88 3/ 7.00 6.70 0.00 0.00 1.19
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.
END.
