2024年8月13日火曜日

NY FUTURES AUGUST 12,2024

ICE No. 2 Cotton

AUGUST 12,2024

          Open      High      Low       Settle    Change

Oct '24   67.55     69.95     67.55     68.29     +120

Dec '24   68.34     70.80     68.12     69.07     +73

Mar '25   69.77     71.98     69.55     70.50     +82

May '25   70.96     72.85     70.82     71.72     +81

July '25  71.74     73.39     71.74     72.50     +76

Oct '25     -         -         -       71.67     +89

Dec '25   70.29     71.35     70.29     70.82     +72

Mar '26   72.34     72.34     72.13     72.13     +71

May '26   73.20     73.20     72.91     72.91     +71

July '26  73.88     73.88     73.56     73.56     +71

ICE estimated futures volume: 56,400   

 

NY定期期近12月限は寄り付きからしばらくは動意薄で小幅な値動きを見せた。

米国農務省月間需給報告が発表されると値を上げ、本日の高値を付けた。しかし、その後引けにかけてやや値を戻し、最終的に前日比73ポイント高の69.07/LBで引けた。推定出来高は56,400枚。

 

【相場動向要因】

期近12月限は2取引日続けての上昇となった。本日は70¢を超える勢いを見せたものの、そこから失速。強気基調への転換も予想される一方で更なる上方向への可能性がどこまであるか注目が集まる。

 

本日米国農務省月間需給報告が発表された。供給面で大きな修正が入ったことで、強材料となって発表直後、相場を押し上げた。米綿2024/2025 CROPの生産量が前月の1,700万俵から約190万俵下方修正され、1,511万俵と報告されている。事前の市場予想は1,575万 – 1,900万俵であった。米綿減産予想の背景には、作付面積が6月末の発表から50万エーカー減少し、また放棄率が6%上昇するとの予想が挙げられていることがある。

また2024/2025 CROPの米綿の輸出量も前回の報告から100万俵下方修正されている。

需要面も、中国を含めて修正が入っているが、米綿を中心とした供給面の修正の影響が大きく、世界全体の期末在庫は7月予想826万俵から776万俵に下方修正されている。

詳細は、本日発表された週間作付進捗報告と合わせて後述する。

 

技術的に、期近12月限で本日の高値圏を抵抗線とするシグナルが出ているとの見方があり、70¢台を維持して引けなかったことから、アナリストからは、そこまで強い展開を見せないのではないかと予想する声もある。

 

【米国農務省月間需給報告】

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Aug 12

 

Mon Aug 12 12:01:23 2024 EDT

 

                               World Cotton Supply and Use 1/

                                (Million 480-pound bales)

=============================================================================

                     beginning                domestic exports         ending

                       stocks   prod  imports    use           loss 2/ stocks

=============================================================================

                                           2024/25 (Projected)

World

                  Jul   79.31  120.19   44.59  117.19   44.59   -0.32   82.63

                  Aug   75.78  117.64   43.63  116.21   43.54   -0.31   77.61

World Less China

                  Jul   38.31   92.69   33.09   78.19   44.52   -0.32   41.70

                  Aug   38.15   90.14   33.63   78.21   43.47   -0.31   40.55

United States

                  Jul    3.05   17.00    0.01    1.90   13.00   -0.15    5.30

                  Aug    3.15   15.11    0.01    1.90   12.00   -0.14    4.50

Total foreign

                  Jul   76.26  103.19   44.59  115.29   31.59   -0.18   77.33

                  Aug   72.63  102.53   43.63  114.31   31.54   -0.18   73.11

Major exporters 4/

                  Jul   25.81   59.88    2.20   34.71   27.41   -0.18   25.95

                  Aug   25.64   59.22    2.70   34.68   27.33   -0.18   25.71

Central Asia 5/   Jul    3.38    5.19    0.03    4.08    1.40    0.00    3.12

                  Aug    3.38    5.19    0.03    4.08    1.40    0.00    3.12

Afr Fr Z 6/       Jul    1.33    5.12      3/    0.10    4.90    0.00    1.45

                  Aug    1.28    4.92      3/    0.10    4.78    0.00    1.32

S Hemis 7/        Jul   10.09   24.05    0.15    4.36   19.18   -0.18   10.92

                  Aug   10.08   24.05    0.15    4.36   19.18   -0.18   10.91

Australia         Jul    4.15    5.00      3/    0.01    5.40   -0.18    3.91

                  Aug    4.15    5.00      3/    0.01    5.40   -0.18    3.91

Brazil            Jul    3.19   16.70    0.01    3.30   12.50    0.00    4.10

                  Aug    3.17   16.70    0.01    3.30   12.50    0.00    4.08

India             Jul   10.67   25.00    1.50   25.50    1.50    0.00   10.17

                  Aug   10.57   24.50    2.00   25.50    1.50    0.00   10.07

Major importers 8/

                  Jul   48.03   39.82   39.71   76.27    2.39    0.00   48.90

                  Aug   44.59   39.82   38.26   75.32    2.39    0.00   44.96

Mexico            Jul    0.25    0.80    0.90    1.50    0.20    0.00    0.25

                  Aug    0.24    0.80    0.95    1.55    0.20    0.00    0.24

China             Jul   41.01   27.50   11.50   39.00    0.08    0.00   40.93

                  Aug   37.63   27.50   10.00   38.00    0.08    0.00   37.06

European Union 9/ Jul    0.43    1.36    0.55    0.57    1.25    0.00    0.52

                  Aug    0.35    1.36    0.55    0.57    1.25    0.00    0.44

Turkey            Jul    1.43    4.00    4.70    7.50    0.80    0.00    1.83

                  Aug    1.43    4.00    4.80    7.60    0.80    0.00    1.83

Pakistan          Jul    1.63    6.00    3.90    9.50    0.05    0.00    1.98

                  Aug    1.65    6.00    4.00    9.60    0.05    0.00    2.00

Indonesia         Jul    0.40      3/    2.00    2.00    0.01    0.00    0.39

                  Aug    0.40      3/    2.00    2.00    0.01    0.00    0.39

Thailand          Jul    0.10      3/    0.40    0.42    0.00    0.00    0.09

                  Aug    0.10      3/    0.40    0.42    0.00    0.00    0.09

Bangladesh        Jul    1.59    0.16    8.00    8.00    0.00    0.00    1.74

                  Aug    1.59    0.16    7.80    7.80    0.00    0.00    1.74

Vietnam           Jul    1.05      3/    7.10    7.10    0.00    0.00    1.05

                  Aug    1.05      3/    7.10    7.10    0.00    0.00    1.05

=============================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade

   may not balance due to rounding and other factors.       2/ Generally

   reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia

   and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks

   based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.  3/ Less than

   5,000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and

   regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,

   Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central

   African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.  7/

   Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and

   Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes

   Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

 

Write to Taryn Boss at csstat@dowjones.com

 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - 2

 

Mon Aug 12 12:01:27 2024 EDT

 

                      World Cotton Supply and Use 1/  (continued)

                              (Million 480-pound bales)

===============================================================================

                 beginning                  domestic  exports            ending

                   stocks     prod  imports      use            loss 2/  stocks

===============================================================================

                                           2023/24 (Estimated)

World               75.27   113.58    43.41   112.35    44.73    -0.61    75.78

World Less China    42.21    86.23    28.61    74.85    44.66    -0.61    38.15

United States        4.25    12.07     0.01     1.85    11.75    -0.43     3.15

Total Foreign       71.02   101.51    43.40   110.50    32.98    -0.18    72.63

Major exporters 4/  27.23    58.70     1.53    33.76    28.24    -0.18    25.64

Central Asia 5/      3.63     5.20     0.01     3.86     1.61     0.00     3.38

Afr. Fr. Zone 6/     0.96     4.96       3/     0.10     4.54     0.00     1.28

S Hemis 7/          11.34    21.87     0.15     4.15    19.30    -0.18    10.08

Australia            4.78     5.00       3/     0.01     5.80    -0.18     4.15

Brazil               4.01    14.57     0.01     3.10    12.31     0.00     3.17

India               10.82    26.20     0.88    25.00     2.33     0.00    10.57

Major importers 8/  41.47    39.36    39.37    72.65     2.97     0.00    44.59

Mexico               0.38     0.90     0.70     1.50     0.23     0.00     0.24

China               33.06    27.35    14.80    37.50     0.08     0.00    37.63

European Union 9/    0.39     1.05     0.50     0.53     1.06     0.00     0.35

Turkey               2.63     3.20     3.50     6.50     1.40     0.00     1.43

Pakistan             1.53     6.70     3.00     9.40     0.18     0.00     1.65

Indonesia            0.36       3/     1.83     1.78     0.02     0.00     0.40

Thailand             0.14       3/     0.42     0.46     0.00     0.00     0.10

Bangladesh           1.73     0.16     7.30     7.60     0.00     0.00     1.59

Vietnam              1.05       3/     6.70     6.70     0.00     0.00     1.05

                                           2022/23

World               70.16   116.46    37.65   112.64    37.09    -0.73    75.27

World Less China    36.29    85.71    31.42    74.94    37.00    -0.73    42.21

United States        4.05    14.47       3/     2.05    12.77    -0.55     4.25

Total Foreign       66.11   102.00    37.65   110.59    24.33    -0.19    71.02

Major exporters 4/  21.76    55.76     2.38    32.81    20.05    -0.20    27.23

Central Asia 5/      2.73     5.54     0.01     3.53     1.12     0.00     3.63

Afr. Fr. Zone 6/     1.01     4.02       3/     0.10     3.98     0.00     0.96

S Hemis 7/           9.19    19.32     0.14     4.12    13.39    -0.20    11.34

Australia            4.98     5.80       3/     0.01     6.19    -0.20     4.78

Brazil               2.05    11.72     0.01     3.11     6.66     0.00     4.01

India                8.40    26.30     1.73    24.50     1.10     0.00    10.82

Major importers 8/  42.47    42.93    32.86    73.77     3.01     0.02    41.47

Mexico               0.32     1.58     0.69     1.80     0.41     0.00     0.38

China               33.87    30.75     6.23    37.70     0.09     0.00    33.06

European Union 9/    0.30     1.64     0.52     0.56     1.52     0.00     0.39

Turkey               1.92     4.90     4.19     7.50     0.86     0.02     2.63

Pakistan             1.93     3.90     4.50     8.70     0.10     0.00     1.53

Indonesia            0.46       3/     1.66     1.75     0.02     0.00     0.36

Thailand             0.15       3/     0.66     0.68     0.00     0.00     0.14

Bangladesh           2.28     0.15     7.00     7.70     0.00     0.00     1.73

Vietnam              1.02       3/     6.47     6.45     0.00     0.00     1.05

===============================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade

   may not balance due to rounding and other factors.       2/ Generally

   reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia

   and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks

   based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.  3/ Less than

   5,000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and

   regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,

   Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central

   African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.  7/

   Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and

   Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes

   Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

 

Write to Taryn Boss at csstat@dowjones.com

 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Aug 12

 

Mon Aug 12 12:01:53 2024 EDT

 

 

 

 

         Cotton:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

          and United States, 2023 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2024

========================================================================

   Type     Area Harvested         Yield            Production 1/

    and   ==============================================================

   State   2023      2024     2023     2024       2023      2024

========================================================================

          ==1,000 Acres==   === Pounds ===       == 1,000 Bales 2/ ==

Upland

AL        374.0     395.0      937      881      730.0     725.0

AZ         75.0      94.0    1,331    1,557      208.0     305.0

AR        505.0     640.0    1,295    1,238    1,362.0   1,650.0

CA         12.8      21.6    2,025    2,000       54.0      90.0

FL         87.0      84.0      612      657      111.0     115.0

GA      1,100.0   1,090.0      949      947    2,175.0   2,150.0

KS         94.0     120.0      761      760      149.0     190.0

LA        115.0     150.0      872    1,008      209.0     315.0

MS        395.0     515.0    1,083    1,118      891.0   1,200.0

MO        330.0     380.0    1,361    1,213      936.0     960.0

 

NM         17.0      27.0      649      889       23.0      50.0

NC        370.0     400.0      933      912      719.0     760.0

OK        180.0     315.0      560      655      210.0     430.0

SC        207.0     220.0      937      829      404.0     380.0

TN        260.0     250.0    1,250    1,056      677.0     550.0

TX      2,100.0   3,650.0      618      592    2,705.0   4,500.0

VA         80.0      90.0    1,122      987      187.0     185.0

 

U.S.    6,301.8   8,441.6      895      828   11,750.0  14,555.0

 

Amer Pima

AZ         16.0      14.0      900      891       30.0      26.0

CA         82.0     135.0    1,346    1,582      230.0     445.0

NM         16.8      14.0      800      754       28.0      22.0

TX         23.0      29.0      584      993       28.0      60.0

 

U.S.      137.8     192.0    1,101    1,383      316.0     553.0

 

All Cotton

AL        374.0     395.0      937      881      730.0     725.0

AZ         91.0     108.0    1,255    1,471      238.0     331.0

AR        505.0     640.0    1,295    1,238    1,362.0   1,650.0

CA         94.8     156.6    1,438    1,640      284.0     535.0

FL         87.0      84.0      612      657      111.0     115.0

GA      1,100.0   1,090.0      949      947    2,175.0   2,150.0

KS         94.0     120.0      761      760      149.0     190.0

LA        115.0     150.0      872    1,008      209.0     315.0

MS        395.0     515.0    1,083    1,118      891.0   1,200.0

MO        330.0     380.0    1,361    1,213      936.0     960.0

 

NM         33.8      41.0      724      843       51.0      72.0

NC        370.0     400.0      933      912      719.0     760.0

OK        180.0     315.0      560      655      210.0     430.0

SC        207.0     220.0      937      829      404.0     380.0

TN        260.0     250.0    1,250    1,056      677.0     550.0

TX      2,123.0   3,679.0      618      595    2,733.0   4,560.0

VA         80.0      90.0    1,122      987      187.0     185.0

 

U.S.    6,439.6   8,633.6      899      840   12,066.0  15,108.0

========================================================================

1/  Production ginned and to be ginned.

2/  480-pound net weight bales.

 

 

                     Cottonseed:  Production, United States,

                      2023-24 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2024

========================================================================

                                 Production

       =================================================================

                       2023                    2024 1/

========================================================================

                                 1,000 Tons

U.S.                3,644.0                 4,605.0

========================================================================

1/  Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

 

Write to Valena Henderson at csstat@dowjones.com

 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Aug 12

 

Mon Aug 12 12:01:59 2024 EDT

 

                                    U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/

=========================================================================

Item                        2023/2024                   2024/2025

                        prev        Aug 12          prev         Aug 12

==========================================================================

Area

                        Million acres

Planted                 10.23        10.23       11.67 **          11.17

Harvested                6.44         6.44        9.67 **           8.63

                        Pounds

Yield per harv. acre      899          899         844 **            840

                        Million 480 pound bales

Beginning stocks         4.25         4.25           3.05           3.15

Production              12.07        12.07          17.00          15.11

Imports                  0.01         0.01           0.01           0.01

Supply, total           16.32        16.32          20.06          18.27

Domestic use             1.85         1.85           1.90           1.90

Exports, total          11.60        11.75          13.00          12.00

Use, total              13.45        13.60          14.90          13.90

Unaccounted 2/          -0.18        -0.43          -0.15          -0.14

Ending stocks            3.05         3.15           5.30           4.50

Avg. farm price 3/      76.00        76.00          68.00          66.00

==========================================================================

Note:  1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.

Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the

previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound

for upland cotton. **Planted area as reported in June 28, 2024 Acreage

report. Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region with

the Southwest adjusted to reflect moisture conditions. Yield based on 5-year

average yield by region.

 

Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com

 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

 

【米国農務省週間作付進捗報告】

 

Cotton Squaring - Selected States

[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2023 cotton acreage]

-----------------------------------------------------------------

                 :            Week ending            :          

                 :-----------------------------------:          

      State      :August 11, : August 4, :August 11, : 2019-2023

                 :   2023    :   2024    :   2024    :  Average 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

                 :                    percent                   

                 :                                              

Alabama .........:     97          96          98          98   

Arizona .........:    100         100         100         100   

Arkansas ........:    100          99         100         100   

California ......:     96          95         100          97   

Georgia .........:     97          95          97          98   

Kansas ..........:     93          96          97          92   

Louisiana .......:     99          93          98         100   

Mississippi .....:     95          97          99          95   

Missouri ........:     99          93          98          93   

North Carolina ..:     96          98          99          96   

Oklahoma ........:     94          95         100          95   

South Carolina ..:     98          99         100          97   

Tennessee .......:     95          97          99          97   

Texas ...........:     94          87          95          93   

Virginia ........:     99          98         100          98   

                 :                                              

15 States .......:     95          91          96          95   

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 

Cotton Setting Bolls - Selected States

[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2023 cotton acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     : August 11,  :  August 4,  : August 11,  :  2019-2023 

                :    2023     :    2024     :    2024     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                      

Alabama ........:     87            72            77            86     

Arizona ........:     98            96            99            95     

Arkansas .......:     92            91            93            96     

California .....:     56            60            70            74     

Georgia ........:     78            69            78            83     

Kansas .........:     77            72            84            63     

Louisiana ......:     88            75            82            94     

Mississippi ....:     83            74            84            83     

Missouri .......:     81            56            66            71     

North Carolina .:     72            79            86            77     

Oklahoma .......:     69            50            65            61     

South Carolina .:     79            88            93            80     

Tennessee ......:     80            74            86            80     

Texas ..........:     61            51            69            67     

Virginia .......:     80            81            89            83     

                :                                                      

15 States ......:     69            60            74            73     

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Cotton Bolls Opening - Selected States

[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2023 cotton acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     : August 11,  :  August 4,  : August 11,  :  2019-2023 

                :    2023     :    2024     :    2024     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                      

Alabama ........:      4             1             6             3     

Arizona ........:     45            57            64            33     

Arkansas .......:      5            13            28             6     

California .....:      -             -             -             -     

Georgia ........:      2             1             3             4     

Kansas .........:      6             2             8             4     

Louisiana ......:     17             4            15            22     

Mississippi ....:     11             1             5            10     

Missouri .......:      -             -             -             -     

North Carolina .:      1             -             2             1     

Oklahoma .......:      -             -             -             1     

South Carolina .:      2             1             3             1     

Tennessee ......:      4             2             4             2     

Texas ..........:     16            11            17            18     

Virginia .......:      5             -             3             2     

                :                                                      

15 States ......:     12             8            13            12     

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-  Represents zero.                                                    

 

Cotton Condition - Selected States: Week Ending August 11, 2024

[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2023 cotton acreage]

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      State     : Very poor :   Poor    :   Fair    :   Good    : Excellent

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                :                          percent                         

                :                                                          

Alabama ........:     1           9          28          59           3    

Arizona ........:     -           2           -          47          51    

Arkansas .......:     1           5          18          50          26    

California .....:     -           -           -          95           5    

Georgia ........:     1           9          29          53           8    

Kansas .........:     1           9          39          42           9    

Louisiana ......:     -           -          26          74           -    

Mississippi ....:     2           7          34          52           5    

Missouri .......:     5           9          31          55           -    

North Carolina .:     1          11          21          66           1    

Oklahoma .......:     1           3          35          59           2    

South Carolina .:     2          12          38          46           2    

Tennessee ......:     3           6          25          56          10    

Texas ..........:    15          22          30          26           7    

Virginia .......:     -           7          23          68           2    

                :                                                          

15 States ......:     9          16          29          39           7    

                :                                                          

Previous week ..:    12          15          28          37           8    

Previous year ..:    19          24          21          30           6    

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-  Represents zero.         

 

 

End.